James

Seeing how FB actually increased today from last Sunday I think the weekend either stays flat, or increases/drops a per %.

You also didn't think it would make 800m

With it already being at over 570m OS before the weekend (so 3.1m for Mon-Thu), I think 585m-ish is where it should end up. And around 815-820m WW.

Ok, so maybe 2 years until Romania takes over Portugal in adm. Or maybe just 1 if Portugal decreases to around 2015 level or so in 2017. The average ticket prince though... still way higher than here. It will take a few more years till we can catch up in Euros.

But they shouldn't. I think that one of the reasons that made FB for example translate so well was the fact that you didn't have to previously know a thing in order to understand the story (this was pointed out multiple times by a lot of members here). There was Jacob that asked all the right questions so that the movie didn't feel like a history lesson. But RO seems to have been too heavily reliant on it's mythology, which is fine for the fans, but as many people pointed out, SW is more of a western phenomenon. So if you want to introduce it to a new audience, the least you can do is explain to them why some things happen and why should they care.

So... my list for the 25 best movies of the year will be sooooo different. I will not make a separate one like you guys, but Beasts and Pets will both be Top 10 or even Top 5... BvS too probably. Also, I will see Green Room. Really curious about it.

Huge increase in estimates for FB. I think another 5m or so from Japan sounds about right.

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE The first time the weekly admission total rose above 400.000 was in February 2016, when a 401.154 admissions total was recorded. That record was broken last week, with 405.973 adm. Also last week I predicted the record will fall again after this weekend and I was right. The record wasn't only broken, but completely obliterated with the total coming in at over 500.000 admissions. And the one movie to rule them all was, as predicted, Assassin's Creed. - Assassin's Creed smashed the weekend box office, by delivering a huge $502k and 91.805 admissions. Not only is that an incredible figure (above Rogue One: A Star Wars Story), but keep in mind that it was probably brought down a bit by the snow storms that hit the whole country starting starting from Thursday. In my 2017 forecast yesterday I predicted a $1.7m total for Assassin's Creed. And with good WOM and not much competition in the coming weeks it might just manage that. - Why Him? had to settle for second, easing a light 6%. And with enormous week days it now stands at a beautiful $484k. $800k should easily happen and even $1m might yet be in reach! Who would've thought? - Collateral Beauty performed as expected, with a decent 26.977 admissions and $126k opening. WOM seems strong. - The Great Wall suffered in the face of Assassin's Creed mighty debut, sliding 51%. The week days were strong though and the fantasy epic is now at a very good $594k. $1m can still happen. - The Snow Queen 3 delivered another strong debut for the franchise, with 24.860 adm and $105k. That is a bit lower than the first movie and a bit stronger than the second one. It should easily exceed $300-350k. - Passengers posted a great hold (-12%) and the total is now a strong $751k. It is still headed for the coveted $1m territory. - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story lost all it's premium screens to Assassin's Creed and the hit it took was sensible (-41%). The cume is $1.21m and at this point $1.5m (and a spot in the 2016 Top 5) is dead for it. It might yet beat Dirty Grandpa's $1.41m for #6. We shall see. - Sing increased a healthy 17% from last week and reached $418k. Around 600k is where it is headed. Pretty nice for Illumination. Not every movie is a Secret Life of Pets. - Moana continues it's leggy run by jumping 23% from it's last outing and reaching a great $728k. I think that $850k at least will happen. Even $1m is not completely dead, but it will have to post extremely strong holds from now on, which is unlikely with schools going back in session. - Office Christmas Party closes the top by easing 8%. The total - a fine $668k. Top 10: Next week's releases: - Live By Night - Jackie - Debarquement immediat! - Forushande Assassin's Creed will easily retain the top spot, seeing how none of the openers looks to even reach 20.000 admissions. Live By Night might do it. And that is a big 'might'. After 2 weeks, 2017 is running 30% ahead of 2016 through the same point.

Funny thing, I'm looking at Collateral Beauty and all the flack it received. Considering it still has Germany, Japan and Brazil on the way and it is still making money from the other markets, i will likely close to 100m WW. Not a win, but I doubt it will lose WB any money. It might actually get some profit with home media and TV.

I love FB's run in Japan! Simply beautiful!

Beasts is a BEAST! It will finish with about 810-815m WW and around 580-590m OS. Considering that DH2's OS adjusts to about 790m today, that is a 75% retention rate. And from your average Potter movie it actually hasn't lost audience. DH1 adjusts to about 560m OS. I love this image: Worldwide (Unadjusted) Rank Title (click to view) Studio Worldwide Domestic / % Overseas / % Year 1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,341.5 $381.0 28.4% $960.5 71.6% 2011 2 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $974.8 $317.6 32.6% $657.2 67.4% 2001 3 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 WB $960.3 $296.0 30.8% $664.3 69.2% 2010 4 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix WB $939.9 $292.0 31.1% $647.9 68.9% 2007 5 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince WB $934.4 $302.0 32.3% $632.5 67.7% 2009 6 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire WB $896.9 $290.0 32.3% $606.9 67.7% 2005 7 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets WB $879.0 $262.0 29.8% $617.0 70.2% 2002 8 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $796.7 $249.5 31.3% $547.1 68.7% 2004 9 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them WB $794.9 $229.2 28.8% $565.7 71.2% 2016 TOTAL: $8,518.3 $2,619.3 30.7% $5,899.1 69.3% - AVERAGE: $946.5 $291.0 30.7% $655.5 69.3% -

Romania updated:

2017 MARKET PREVIEW 2016 was a great year for the Romanian BO. There were a lot of big hits, but no uber-blockbusters aside from Suicide Squad. But 2017 looks to change that, with a no less than 3 guaranteed uber-blockbusters. As a little legend, so you can better understand the levels of success for a movie (pretty much what Corpse did in the Japan thread): 400.000+ admissions (Uber-Blockbuster) 300.000+ admissions (Blockbuster) 200.000+ admissions (Hit) 150.000+ admissions (Respectable) 100.000+ admissions (Commercial Success) ***100.000 admissions is pretty much the equivalent of $100m in the US. That being said, here is my 2017 forecast for the Romanian market: 1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales – $2.7m Back in 2011, On Stranger Tides set the OW record and became the second highest grossing movie ever at that time, behind Avatar. It managed to sell almost 350.000 admissions, which was enormous back then (it still is), it had great legs and great WOM (it stands at 8.5/10 on Cinemagia). It will be a battle between this and Star Wars VIII for the yearly crown, and I’m ready to give this the edge. 2. Star Wars: Episode VIII – $2.5m The Force Awakens is currently the second highest movie ever, with a stunning $3.25m. Rogue One, on the other hand, will barely make $1.5m. Episode VIII should be much bigger, but I think the lack of nostalgia will make it lose some of the audience. 3. The Fate of the Furious – $2.1m Fats and Furious 7 is the 2nd most attended movie of the 21st century behind only Avatar and the 4th highest grossing movie ever, with over $2.7m. Granted, the eight movie in the franchise will be one of the biggest releases of 2017, but there’s no Paul Walker this time to push the movie into the insane territory. 4. Justice League – $1.8m With Batman v Superman grossing almost $1.6m last year (#3 CBM ever) and setting the CBM OW record, I have great faith in Justice League. It will definitely win the year in terms of superhero movies. 5. Assassin’s Creed – $1.7m The year is set to start strong, with what is classically the most beloved genre in this market: period fantasy/epic. Last year, Warcraft and Gods of Egypt did great business and this year the trend will continue fo sure, with my OW prediction for Assassin’s Creed standing at around 100.000 admissions (tomorrow we’ll see how much the severe snow storms affected it). 6. Despicable Me 3 – $1.6m Minions was a $2m+ monster. Eve nif the fever will have slowed down, Despicable Me 3 should still be the top animation pick of the year. 7. Beauty and the Beast - $1.6m The highest grossing Disney live-action adapatation so far is The Jungle Book, with a huge $1.8m. I don’t know if B&B will be able to match that, but if a movie in the Disney princess cannon can do it, this is it. 8. Thor: Ragnarok – $1.5m Until Doctor Strange came, Thor: The Dark World held the title for the highest grossing Marvel movie (and the highest grossing CBM till Deadpool showed up). With it being a period-epic, expect it to be in the upper range of Marvel offers. 9. Wonder Woman – $1.2m DC is on a roll lately, both Suicide Squad and Batman v Superman being massive hits last year (#1 and #3 CBMs ever). And I don’t see that ending anytime soon. With it being a period piece and looking custom made for this market, I bet Wonder Woman will be big. The only thing that threatens it is opening one week after Pirates of the Caribbean 5 and a week before The Mummy. 10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – $1.2m The first movie in the series had great legs back in 2014 and ended up with $1.1m, which is where most big Marvel movies end up. If the movie is a crowd pleaser it should manage an increase, but it is still a Marvel movie and, even more, it is a sequel. Those two things should keep it in the same $1-1.3m area. 11. Fifty Shades Darker – $1.15m Back in 2015, Fifty Shades of Grey was a massive hit, grossing $1.46m. The sequel should fall, but given the presales are already looking strong one month in advance, Darker should still make a lot of money. 12. King Arthur: Legend of the Sword – $1.1m When I predicted that Gods of Egypt will make $1m+ last year, a remember someone saying it won’t happen. But this is the period-fantasy genre. This is the sweetheart of this country and this looks LOTR-ish in style. It will be a big hit. The only thing slowing it down will be Pirates of the Caribbean 5, opening 2 weeks later. 13. Transformers: The Last Knight – $1.1m Tranformers meets Templar Knights. Perfect receipe for success. 14. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets – $1.1m This looks big and fun. A blast, just like Lucy was. And that movie did great business. 15. The Mummy – $1m Tom Cruise + Egyptian mythology = guaranteed hit, even with a crowded schedule. 16. Kong: Skull Island – $1m I think this will end up in the same territory as Godzilla (2014), by selling more tickets. 17. Dunkirk – $1m I’m going to go big with Dunkirk, seeing how this is a Nolan movie and I’m sure it will play like perfect counterprogramming. 18. Blade Runner 2049 – $1m I’m gonna be balsy and say this will be the SF hit of the Fall, just like Interstellar, The Martian and Gravity were. Other movies with $1m potential (in no particular order): 19. The Great Wall 20. Logan 21. Ghost in the Shell 22. Now You See Me 3 23. Spiderman: Homecoming 24. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 25. Geostorm 26. Coco 27. World War Z 2 28. Lego Batman

There are actually a lot of movies over 500k, but they are all released before 2000 when the ticket prices were a joke. But yeah, lots of room to grow.

Just watched Deepwater Horizon. That scene at the end was maybe the most touching scene I've seen in a movie this year. Really, really liked it. O'Brien was also great. And, I've seen a lot of people saying the budget was way too big, and I tend to agree. But you can actually see the money on screen. I just wish this would've done more BO wise.

ROMANIA'S BOX-OFFICE IN 2015 - YEARLY MARKET OVERVIEW Another year is done (it actually was done on Dec 25th, since the box office is reported only once a week here) and once again, the overall market increased (for the 9th or 10th year in a row). But more than that, the increase was actually way better than I thought it would be, especially in admissions. At the beginning of the year, I was expecting the yearly admission total to break 12m (and so following the yearly 1m-ish increase tradition), but it ended up with almost 13m (it would've actually broke the 13m border if not for the Christmas constellation this year)! The year also set BO records in local currency, USD (here too, it would've broke the $60m border if not for the Christmas falling on a weekend) and Euros. A thing to notice is that, despite beating other EU markets in admissions, the total in currency is lower because of a quite low average ticket price ($4.6 or 4.2 Euros). For a comparison, Portugal (which is the only other similar market I have complete numbers for - thanks @CJohn) made 68.4m Euros in 2016 by selling 13.3m tickets. That's and average ticket price of 5.1 Euros. Still, by next year Romania should surpass it in admissions (I expect over 14m admissions in 2017). Now, moving to a more in depth analysis, let's see what made money this year: Suicide Squad won the year, also becoming the first CBM to hit the $2m border (and the only 2016 movie to do so). That was a total surprise, since I haven't even put it in my Top 10 forecast at the beginning of 2016. But not only Suicide Squad did good. 2016 was an excellent year for superhero movies in general. Before last year, Disney/Marvel was holding the Top 6 highest grossing CBM's in the country, with Thor: The Dark World topping them all at $1.47m. After this year, they don't even crack Top 3 (Suicide Squad, Deadpool, Batman v Superman). But that isn't to say they didn't have a good year (Doctor Strange set a new record for them with over $1.5m). Outside from CBM's, 2016 was also an excellent year for animation, with 4 movie making over 1m, as you can see below. And, of course, Romania's sweetheart, the period fantasy genre, also performed well, with Warcraft and Gods of Egypt being big hits (just as predicted). Top 20 at the end of 2016: ***The bolded titles are still playing That being said, 2016 had only one uber-blockbuster (over $2m) this year (Suicide Squad), compared to three (The Force Awakens, Fast & Furious 7 and Minions) last year. But the revenue was more evenly distributed (no less than 16 movies hit the $1m mark last year - with Passengers soon to become the 17th one -, which beats the record set by 2013, with 13 titles). The market continues to be a decently leggy one, with only 5 movies out of Top 20 failing to hit a 3x multiplier from their opening weekend in admissions (Batman v Superman, Captain America: Civil War, Warcraft, Gods of Egypt and Point Break). The leggiest movie in Top 20 was Zootopia (6.9x multi). No less than 5 movies from 2016 joined the All Time Top 20 list (in USD) - Suicide Squad (#9), The Jungle Book (#12), Deadpool (#17), Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (#19) and Doctor Strange (#20). HIGHEST GROSSING MOVIES EVER IN ROMANIA: When it comes to 2017 expectations I'm going to put my prediction at 14m+ admissions and $65-70m. With more and more cinemas being built every year, I don't see the increase stopping anytime soon. Later today probably I will have a list up with my Top 10 2017 forecast.

How is FB only hitting 85k adm after a 33k Friday?

Just watched the trailer and it seems like a lot of fun. I will check it out. Thanks

Ok, just finished watching Alice Through the Looking Glass. Is it wrong that I enjoyed it quite a bit? I never liked the first movie and yes, this one has a few eye rolling scenes. But it was fun for the most part. Not a masterpiece by any means, but not bad.

Same here. But at least now we got this (can't wait to get home, closer to the country side. It must be stunning there now):

OMG, I WANT THAT!!!!! I looooooove snow like that. I will move there. Or in Alaska.

Off topic, but Krampus is quickly becoming my favorite horror movies ever. It is so moody and nice to look at. I just love it!

I was talking about SW VIII.

For all the flack it received, Assassin's Creed is shaping up to be quite successful OS. Same for Passengers.

WEEKEND UPDATE: Assassin's Creed is a BEAST! It's selling out left and right and theaters keep giving it more and more showtimes. If it manages to keep up this pace, it should blow past 100.000 admissions for the weekend.