James

It will still be a success for Disney. People have just come to have unreasonable expectations for Disney animations. Frozen and Zootopia were the exception, not the rule. The fact that 1b was thrown so easily before the opening is mind boggling to me. 600m is nothing to sneeze at.

This. With Dumbledore coming and the great WW reception for the first movie, I'm thinking 1b is not that out of reach. Or at least 900-950m, which is Potter territory. The sequel will increase in China and maybe the ER worldwide, and especially in the UK, will get a bit better.

Probably #1 WW as well.

Unless Japan does 150m+ or DOM develops incredible late legs to carry it over 300m, I don't see how that could happen. At this point I think 600m is all it can hope for (with a strong, but not phenomenal run in Japan) and good legs in all OS markets.

In other news, Sully just passed 200m WW. Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $124,508,177 62.1% + Foreign: $75,900,000 37.9% = Worldwide: $200,408,177 It opened in a bunch of markets this weekend, including UK, Germany, Italy and Mexico and still has China on the way.

Considering the great drop in Japan, I seriously doubt it only makes 110m OS from now on. It should make at least 30m more from that market alone, possibly more.

The Harry Potter spin-off added $15.5m in China as it charted second for a local haul of $72.5m, while Japan fell only 18% with a $6m second weekend as it retained top spot and reached $28.6m. That is a better drop than pretty much all HP movies. But since HBP was the only one to have a 5 day opening, that one is the best comparison. HBP dropped 37% in it's second weekend to 6.4m. At this point I think 60m should happen, no?

TPATF did not have RO and Sing to contend with. But for your sake, I hope 20m happens.

With 240m, 800m WW would be within reach. If WB stops tracking at 795-796m like they did with PoA I am going to cry

Fantastic Beasts: Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $183,507,403 30.2% + Foreign: $424,400,000 69.8% = Worldwide: $607,907,403

I think that's only part of the problem. Moana is coming after 2 very well received blockbusters (DS and FB). Add Trolls to that mix and audiences were already satiated. But regarding UK, it's Disney's fault for putting it in that slot. How on earth did they thought it was a good idea to position it against Uk's home grown beast (no pun intended)?! Of course, not much room to choose from, but still.

Looks like my conservative prediction was too high. At this point it it depends on Japan, but I don't see more than 350m. If Japan doesn't explode, 350m won't happen. The openings in Mexico and especially UK are awful.

Good hold for FB. And very nice for Moana. It needs those money. OS is not looking that good for it.

Wow, that is awful...

So maybe £ 6m and £ 3.5m predictions for Fantastic Beasts and Moana are coming true. Wouldn't that be something?

How about FB, Olive?

Well, I offer myself (again) so that @Doctor Rth and his FBeasts could give us that sweet FB number (Moana too.. maybe).

A week ago Rogue One tickets went on sale and the presales are very strong. Not TFA level, but still. Lat year, The Force Awakens registered what is still the biggest OW ever in USD ($954K) and the second biggest in admissions (175.584), behind only Fast and Furious 7's 196.210. It went on to make a stunning $3.25m, becoming the second highest grossing movie ever, behind Avatar's $6.35m. At the beginning of the year I predicted Rogue One to make 2.3m which, as of right know, would make it the biggest movie of the year, ahead of Suicide Squad ($2.09m). I don't know if that's happening anymore though. The final schedule for December is in place and Rogue One is facing an INSANE amount of competition, much much bigger than TFA ever faced. For comparison: - On it's first weekend of TFA, the biggest opener aside from it was Valiant Rooster (3.970 adm OW), while the holdovers were almost nonexistent at that point. Rogue One is facing Sing, which has a 35.000 adm (possibly 40.000) OW locked for it and a much stronger batch of holdovers. - On it's second weekend, TFA's newest competition were 2 bombs (All Gone South - 13.710 adm OW; and The Peanuts Movie - 11.460 adm). Rogue One is facing Passengers (30.000 adm OW locked) and La La Land. - On it's third weekend, TFA faced Point Break (67.339 adm OW), Sisters (24.527 adm OW), Snow Queen 2 (22.769 adm OW) and Creed (10.099 adm OW). Rogue One is facing The Great Wall (which should easily match Point Break), Why Him (which should outdo Sisters), The Founder and Ozzy (animation). This is the only balanced weekend. - On it's fourth weekend (which is typically the biggest weekend of the year), TFA contended with Daddy's Home (40.093 adm OW), The Forest (20.382 adm OW) and Joy (10.954 adm OW). Rogue One is facing the most fierce competition it had so far. Assassin's Creed may not be competition for Rogue One in the US, but here it is locked to be one of the biggest hits of the year. 100.000 adm OW is in play for it. Aside from that, you also have Snow Queen 3, which should do at lest 20.000 and Collateral Beauty, which should do around the same. Rogue One will be loosing screens like crazy because it will face possibly 4 (!!!) $1m contenders (Sing, Passengers, The Great Wall and Assassin's Creed) in it's first month. TFA didn't even have one.

Nah. I checked. Hope it will happen one day though. It is my favorite movie series by far.

OMG! I WANT THAT! WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYY ISN'T IT HAPPENING HERE TOO?

What about FB?

With DH1 increases: 5.3 8.2 4.1 17.6m With GoF increases: 5.3 8.9 5.6 19.8m The increases a this point are perfectly following GoF. The Thu/Fri numbers (if Friday holds) are exactly the same as GoF got). I'm hoping for 20m. @Doctor Rth and his FBeasts come to the rescue.

That seems very very good for Beasts after it's massive opening.

CBMs always did good, but they were never massive the way they were this year. The were successful, a lot of them hitting 1m. If you look at this year, those 3 CBMs are not Marvel. I think people are tired of a formula. That's why DC/Deadpool did so well. DS will also break the norm, but that is more because of the magic angle than being a CBM. But yes, CBMs will continue to do well. Looking at next year, DC will extend it's grip over the market. JL will certainly be the highest grossing CBM of the year, WW will also be HUGE because of it's period and mythology angles. Thor 3 should also be very big considering how many year Thor 2 held the highest grossing Marvel movie title (still does, but it will be dethroned by DS soon enough). Predictions: Justice League - 1.8m Thor 3 - 1.4m Wonder Woman - 1.3m (this is the biggest wildcard in term of CBMs; it could go way higher if everything goes right - and I don't mean critic reception; let's not forget that Suicide Squad ended the highest grossing CBM ever bu having INSANE legs) Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 1.25m Spider-Man: Homecoming - 0.9-1m Logan - 0.7m