Infernus

Oh, I forgot about that... But anyways, while I am absolutely certain of Dory making 1B WW, I don't think it will really reach to 1.2B. It won't have China to its advantage unfortunately.

So my early predictions for this (if this opens in China on Chinese New Year) - 210m DOM (I'm hoping this turns out to be a great movie with enough WOM for around this much DOM) 450m OS minus China (I am being a little cautious) 540m China (I am counting on you JohnnyStorm for this insane no. to actually turn out true) 1.2B WW. 3rd or 2nd Highest grossing movie of the Year (Behind Civil War and close to BvS) Yeah my china number is a little too much but i'll see how the rest of this year goes in China. If no other movie is able to come even close to FF7's 390m, then I'll drop it down to 440m. If a number of movies come close to this and a few local movies break out heavily and a number of Foreign movies also gross more than than 200m, I'll let this stay at 500m+. Either way, 1B worldwide seems almost locked for this to me.

So around 7-7.5 times its OD?

I just can't wait for it, Both the movie and its Chinese box office run. What will its final no. be if thats the OD? 500m?

Just imagine what would happen in India with ticket prices like U.S.

One thing I'm sure of is that whatever its Friday total numbers are, its 2nd weekend numbers will be very close to that.

Just a guess.

34-36m previews 97m Friday total 213m OW This is slightly conservative though and I believe that both friday and OW can increase to 101m and 217m.

Will you just stop No Prisoners? We all respect firedeep mich more than you. He is one of the most knowledgeable about this market and his predictions are the best, closest and most reasonable. And it was you who started the fight without any reason except for you just trying to shine out and seizing the opportunity to channel your jealousy for firedeep. He only, in a very friendly manner, said that your prediction seemed a little too off. He didn't even criticize you to the slightest for it even though it was indeed quite foolish. And you bited 'back' asking him to not think he is omnipotent and whatnot.

Since there's still time I'd like to increase my OS-C prediction to 825m.

Do you guys actually know anything about Oedipus? He didn't kill his dad coz he hated him, it was just a mistake. Similarly, he didn't bang his mom knowingly. He was abandoned as an infant which was why he couldn't recognize his own parents. When these mistakes finally came to light, he punished himself by blinding himself and stuff. Also Oedipan Complex is a psychological term that denotes the suppressed sexual desires one feels towards the parent of the opposite sex as a child.

My prediction - OS without China - 800 China - 285m DOM-565m WW-1.65B

If this ends below Interstellar, this will be the ultimate disappointment of all time, for me, in SK

10M is defintely not locked now but its still not in much danger. As things are now, there are still more chances of it making more than 10m than of it not doing so.

What are its chances of making it past 90m now? 15%?

Ah! The potter movies were uncomparable and unbeatable OS. Who knows how much they'd have made today.

Should end up making around, most possibly even more than, 1.15 OS and 1.7 B WW.

That's good. Teens are supposed to be the target audience. If they have such a low share that means there's is still quite some room for growth in numbers.

What multiplier should be expected? 100m would require greater than 3.5.

The 13% decline doesn't seem very good to me

The release schedule is why we at the chinese thread didn't start saying that north of 300m$ is a lock for this movie, even though this is much more tailor-made for the chinese audience than F7, as soon as F7 started making such astonishing numbers. Also, most movies lose a majority of their screems by their second weekend anyways, regardless of competition.

Also you guys are highly underestimating AOU in china. 250m is not the max for it there, instead its closer to being the min. It can gross anything from 250 to 300. We were expecting around 250m for it when we were expecting around 170 for F7. F7 went on to gross more than double of that. I don't see why AOU can't atleast increase a little.

This is from the distributors - "While Avengers: Age Of Ultron too will have outstanding numbers from its India theatrical release, it may not be as big as Fast and Furious 7, courtesy a very simple release – the relative release size! While Fast and Furious 7 had released on the E-Cinema projection systems too, Avengers: Age Of Ultron will limit itself to the 2K digital projection platforms only, like all the major Hollywood film studios do. So, against the 2300 (approx) screens that Fast and Furious 7 released in, Avengers: Age Of Ultron may release only in about 1200 screens. However, if you look at the screen-wise collections, I’m quite sure Avengers: Age Of Ultron will score well over Fast and Furious 7."

As for India, AOU opened in around half the no of screens F7 opened in and still lost by a very small margin.

I know that but I'm hoping this breaks the 'average movie' style of run and comes out to surprise us . Actually I'd be pretty happy with even just 1.1M too though.