RichWS

It's a found footage teen superhero film that had plenty of internet hype. I'll believe a rise when I see it.

With both films skewing so young, it's very possible both will drop tomorrow. I imagine any rise would be very small, under 10%.

I still see it dipping a bit today. It's tough for such a Friday over-performer with a young male audience to rise.

My girlfriend and I were talking recently about how likable Radcliffe was during interviews. We're not going to see the movie, but he's definitely an ace when it comes to publicity. It definitely helps the film and the studios love stars who put the work in on the circuit. Tom Cruise, for example, has always been one of the best at it.

I'm not a big fan of this happening, but I love seeing Ridley attach himself to a new project every month. I'm assuming for now that he'll do Cormac McCarthy's The Counselor in the second half of this year as a smaller project before starting this next spring.

It's as close as it gets for the top! My estimates:Woman in Black - $19.8 millionChronicle - $19.1 million

If $8M is indeed the Friday number, Chronicle could take a slight dip of 5% on Saturday, then 70% on Sunday. That's a total of $17.9M.Woman in Black could jump 5% on Saturday and drop 65-70% on Sunday. Let's say $19.3M.

FRIDAY 10 PM, 2ND UPDATE: It’s another bigger-than-predicted box office this Super Bowl weekend with the studios focused on counterprogramming the game. My sources say CBS Films’ The Woman In Black is looking to edge Fox’s Chronicle for No. 1 Friday with $8.1M vs $8.0M respectively Friday and $19.8M vs $19.7M weekend. Trust me, no one in Hollywood projected either movie to get near $20M so this gives new meaning to the term ‘overperform’. But the town is thrilled that 2012 keeps logging good grosses. Woman In Black has hung onto its slight lead longer than originally expected, including evening pre-sales. But the Fox film will lose guys on Sunday so CBS Films should overtake. The Woman In Black is especially a low-cost/high-reward bonanza for its studios, especially because the marketing budget was kept to a bare minimum. The weekend’s biggest budget debut is Universal’s Big Miracle which is No. 4 heading for $2.2M Friday and $8M weekend. Last week’s big winner, Open Road’s The Grey is #3 with a solid -52% hold. Stay tuned.

The beginning of February and I'm dreaming of the summer box office...

This movie has some truly hilarious moments. My personal favorite is the confrontation between Obi-Wan and Anakin on the platform before their fight. "YOU WILL NOT TAKE HER FROM ME!!!" My old roommates and I would quote that scene all the time.

Fox Searchlight picked up The Surrogate and Beasts of the Southern Wild. I could see one making it in.

STARK!!!

Like everybody else, I certainly did not see Underworld holding like that. Fourth film in the franchise facing off against a Liam Neeson vs. wolf pic? I thought 60% for sure.

Not much to add. This seals the deal.

Others here have a much greater appreciation of the cinematography than I do. It was fine, but I don't quite see what's Oscar worthy about it. It wasn't a notable element that stuck out in my mind when I left the theater, as it did with the four other nominees (excluding War Horse).

The Tree of LifeMoneyballThe ArtistHugoMidnight in ParisHaven't seen the other four yet.

A tie! Thanks for setting this up, Impact.

I not-so-boldly predict jokes about Extremely Loud's nomination will be made for years to come.I'm also ecstatic Tree of Life and Malick made it.

It's all about Shore's Hobbit score for me. His Rings scores are among my all-time favorite so there's a lot to live up to.

BEST PICTURE:The ArtistThe DescendantsThe Girl with the Dragon TattooThe HelpHugoMidnight in ParisMoneyballTinker, Tailor, Soldier, SpyBEST DIRECTOR:Woody Allen – Midnight in ParisMichel Hazanavicius – The ArtistTerrence Malick – The Tree of LifeAlexander Payne – The DescendantsMartin Scorsese – HugoAlt: David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon TattooBEST ACTOR:George Clooney – The DescendantsJean Dujardin – The ArtistMichael Fassbender – ShameGary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, SpyBrad Pitt – MoneyballAlt: Michael Shannon – Take ShelterBEST ACTRESS:Viola Davis – The HelpGlenn Close – Albert NobbsMeryl Streep – The Iron LadyTilda Swinton – We Need to Talk about KevinMichelle Williams – My Week with MarilynAlt: Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon TattooBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:Kenneth Branagh – My Week with MarilynAlbert Brooks – BeginnersJonah Hill – MoneyballNick Nolte – WarriorChristopher Plummer – BeginnersAlt: Patton Oswalt – Young AdultBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:Berenice Bejo – The ArtistJessica Chastain – The HelpMelissa McCarthy – BridesmaidsOctavia Spencer – The HelpShailene Woodley – The DescendantsAlt: Janet McTeer – Albert NobbsBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:The DescendantsThe HelpHugoMoneyballTinker, Tailor, Soldier, SpyAlt: The Girl with the Dragon TattooBEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:50/50A SeparationThe ArtistBridesmaidsMidnight in ParisAlt: BeginnersBEST ART DIRECTION:The ArtistHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2HugoJane EyreTinker, Tailor, Soldier, SpyAlt: War HorseBEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:The ArtistThe Girl with the Dragon TattooHugoTinker, Tailor, Solder, SpyThe Tree of LifeAlt: War HorseBEST COSTUME DESIGN:The ArtistThe HelpHugoJane EyreW.E.Alt: War HorseBEST FILM EDITING:The ArtistThe DescendantsThe Girl with the Dragon TattooHugoMoneyballAlt: War HorseBEST MAKEUP:Gainsbourg: A Heroic LifeHugoThe Iron LadyAlt: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:The ArtistThe Girl with the Dragon TattooHugoJane EyreWar HorseAlt: The Adventures of TintinBEST ORIGINAL SONG:Lay Your Head Down – Albert NobbsLife’s a Happy Song – The MuppetsThe Living Proof – The HelpPictures in my Head – The MuppetsStar Spangled Man – Captain America: The First AvengerAlt: Man or Muppet – The MuppetsBEST SOUND EDITING:Mission: Impossible – Ghost ProtocolRise of the Planet of the ApesSuper 8Transformers: Dark of the MoonWar HorseAlt: Fast Five BEST SOUND MIXING:HugoMission: Impossible – Ghost ProtocolSuper 8Transformers: Dark of the MoonWar HorseAlt: The ArtistBEST VISUAL EFFECTS:Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2HugoRise of the Planet of the ApesTransformers: Dark of the MoonThe Tree of LifeAlt: Super 8BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:The Adventures of TintinArthur ChristmasCars 2Puss in BootsRangoAlt: Kung Fu Panda 2

Looks like I'm going to update my predictions one last time...

Another nice weekend. Underworld still has some gas in the tank. I thought Red Tails would hit $15M this weekend, but a number closer to $20M seems very possible. Fox has done a great marketing job.

Tinker, Tailor gets a Best Picture nod.

BEST PICTURE:The ArtistThe DescendantsThe HelpHugoMidnight in ParisMoneyballTinker, Tailor, Soldier, SpyThe Tree of LifeBEST DIRECTOR:Woody AllenMichel HazanaviciusTerrence MalickAlexander PayneMartin ScorseseAlt: David FincherBEST ACTOR:George ClooneyJean DujardinMichael FassbenderGary OldmanBrad PittAlt: Michael ShannonBEST ACTRESS:Viola DavisGlenn CloseMeryl StreepTilda SwintonMichelle WilliamsAlt: Rooney MaraBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:Kenneth BranaghAlbert BrooksJonah HillNick NolteChristopher PlummerAlt: Patton OswaltBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:Berenice BejoJessica ChastainJanet McTeerOctavia SpencerShailene WoodleyAlt: Melissa McCarthyBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:The DescendantsThe HelpHugoMoneyballTinker, Tailor, Soldier, SpyAlt: The Girl with the Dragon TattooBEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:50/50The ArtistBeginnersBridesmaidsMidnight in ParisAlt: Win WinBEST ART DIRECTION:AnonymousThe ArtistHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2HugoTinker, Tailor, Soldier, SpyAlt: Jane EyreBEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:The ArtistThe Girl with the Dragon TattooHugoTinker, Tailor, Solder, SpyThe Tree of LifeAlt: War HorseBEST COSTUME DESIGN:The ArtistThe HelpHugoJane EyreW.E.Alt: AnonymousBEST FILM EDITING:The ArtistThe DescendantsThe Girl with the Dragon TattooHugoMoneyballAlt: War HorseBEST MAKEUP:The ArtistGainsbourg: A Heroic LifeThe Iron LadyAlt: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:The ArtistThe Girl with the Dragon TattooHugoJane EyreWar HorseAlt: The Adventures of TintinBEST ORIGINAL SONG:Lay Your Head Down – Albert NobbsLife’s a Happy Song – The MuppetsThe Living Proof – The HelpPictures in my Head – The MuppetsStar Spangled Man – Captain America: The First AvengerAlt: Man or Muppet – The MuppetsBEST SOUND EDITING:HugoMission: Impossible – Ghost ProtocolRise of the Planet of the ApesSuper 8Transformers: Dark of the MoonAlt: War Horse BEST SOUND MIXING:HugoMission: Impossible – Ghost ProtocolSuper 8Transformers: Dark of the MoonWar HorseAlt: The Adventures of TintinBEST VISUAL EFFECTS:Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2HugoRise of the Planet of the ApesTransformers: Dark of the MoonThe Tree of LifeAlt: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger TidesBEST ANIMATED FEATURE:The Adventures of TintinCars 2Kung Fu Panda 2Puss in BootsRangoAlt: Arthur Christmas

I'll post my final predictions later tonight.