Jump to content

KP1025

Free Account+
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,923

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by KP1025

  1. KP1025
    $800 million OS seems quite likely now. Japan has at least another $50 million left, and remaining markets can add over $100 million. Could get close to $1.4 billion WW depending how far Japan goes. It will have to pick up a bit of slack now that domestic isn't looking to hit $600 million.
  2. KP1025
    Frozen 3 could do it, but they need to reverse the negative perception of Disney+ first before any Pixar or WDAS film can reach those heights again. Too many familes are content waiting a few months to watch their films for free on Disney+. If the window were extended to at least 6 months, maybe that could start to shift things back to the way they were.
  3. KP1025
    So Japan will definitely overtake Mexico to become Mario's #1 OS market and by a comfortable margin too. As it should be.
  4. KP1025
    What's the next biggest film in terms of competition for Mario? I think it should have a pretty open run unless The Little Mermaid breaks out.
  5. KP1025
    Me too. Especially the huge and completely unexpected breakout that was Frozen.
  6. KP1025
    Some people were also disappointed that it lost the 2013 domestic crown to Catching Fire and OS/WW to Frozen.
  7. KP1025
    That would be a brutal drop for Mario if estimates hold (they will almost certainly go up as it's Deadline), but it also shows just how much it's benefited from having zero competition for a whole month.
  8. KP1025
    Thursday update for Mario from Deadline
  9. KP1025
    Could have had a $200+ million run in China if released in 2019.
  10. KP1025
    Friday unless Thursday increases, which is unlikely due to GotG3 previews taking screens.
  11. KP1025
    I think Avatar 3 could even increase from the second. The scale of it is supposed to be even more amazing, plus hopefully China will have no impediments to the run next time.
  12. KP1025
    It doesn't seem like the digital release has much of an effect on box office, especially for animated films. Minions 2 and Puss in Boots continued to have excellent holds even after they were available for purchase. It's the free release to a streaming platform that kills the legs.
  13. KP1025
    Friday is Children's Day so makes sense Mario would get a huge boost as the premier movie to take the kids.
  14. KP1025
    Nice, so Friday could be the biggest day for Mario after all.
  15. KP1025
    True, there is some precedent for this to break out there. Soul grossed almost $60 million in China despite having a pirated HD copy out Day 1 and releasing in the heart of the pandemic. Probably could have had a Coco/Zootopia-esque run otherwise.
  16. KP1025
    Yeah, I would guess maybe $10 million in China since it's coming out same day as The Flash. Western animation usually doesn't play too well, especially original films. Even Mario barely crossed $20 million there despite being big almost everywhere else.
  17. KP1025
    Second Friday should be much bigger than OD Friday, but I'm not sure how much Saturday and Sunday are expected to drop.
  18. KP1025
    Now that's the kind of window Disney should be giving to all their major releases before dropping on Disney+
  19. KP1025
    I think DM4 finishes in the $900 million range like Minions 2. Maybe a bit lower since that overperformed domestically compared to DM3.
  20. KP1025
    Combination of a national holiday and a discount day. I believe Corpse said Wednesday was likely going to be the biggest day this week for that reason, at least in admissions.
  21. KP1025
    Oh definitely, $1.2 billon would require a complete collaspe of its excellent legs thus far. $1.3 billion should be the floor with DOM close to $600 million and OS over $700 million.
  22. KP1025
    $1.5 billion ceiling is quite optimistic. I guess it's possible if Japan pulls a Frozen and goes over $200 million.
  23. KP1025
    Here's what Corpse posted about Golden Week recently.
  24. KP1025
    Actuals are out now, and looks like Universal overestimated Mario's opening in Japan. Frozen 2 still holds the Hollywood animated opening record, but Mario will gain quite a bit of ground on that comp with the huge holiday week ahead.
  25. KP1025
    Both are locked. DOM should be closer to $600 million and OS should go over $700 million.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept