KP1025

Hard to believe this is the same franchise that had two films gross almost $400 million in China back to back.

I wonder how they will explain Li Bingbing's absence in this. Looks like the daughter of her character is still in the film.

Don't forget JWD, which was technically the second biggest that summer as it was the only other film besides TGM to cross $1 billion WW.

Actuals are out and it doesn't look like Disney lowballed the revised weekend estimate at all. Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days May 4, 2023 P $17,500,000 0 $17,500,000 May 5, 2023 1 $48,103,839 4,450 $10,810 $48,103,839 1 May 6, 2023 1 $38,876,290 -19% 4,450 $8,736 $86,980,129 2 May 7, 2023 1 $31,433,892 -19% 4,450 $7,064 $118,414,021 3

Best case scenario it pulls an Incredibles 2 level increase for a finish in the $400 million range.

I thought that would be the expected slowdown after such a monstrous Golden Week? It's going to be very weekend heavy from now on until summer.

$5,423,531 second weekend (+15% over OW thanks to holiday on Friday), total up to $13,365,289 Friday increased 465% versus last Friday but Saturday and Sunday dropped by 41% and 52% respectively.

Holiday boosted but still super impressive it nearly matched the weekend in domestic market ($18.6 million).

$800 million OS seems quite likely now. Japan has at least another $50 million left, and remaining markets can add over $100 million. Could get close to $1.4 billion WW depending how far Japan goes. It will have to pick up a bit of slack now that domestic isn't looking to hit $600 million.

Frozen 3 could do it, but they need to reverse the negative perception of Disney+ first before any Pixar or WDAS film can reach those heights again. Too many familes are content waiting a few months to watch their films for free on Disney+. If the window were extended to at least 6 months, maybe that could start to shift things back to the way they were.

So Japan will definitely overtake Mexico to become Mario's #1 OS market and by a comfortable margin too. As it should be.

What's the next biggest film in terms of competition for Mario? I think it should have a pretty open run unless The Little Mermaid breaks out.

Me too. Especially the huge and completely unexpected breakout that was Frozen.

Some people were also disappointed that it lost the 2013 domestic crown to Catching Fire and OS/WW to Frozen.

That would be a brutal drop for Mario if estimates hold (they will almost certainly go up as it's Deadline), but it also shows just how much it's benefited from having zero competition for a whole month.

Thursday update for Mario from Deadline

Could have had a $200+ million run in China if released in 2019.

Friday unless Thursday increases, which is unlikely due to GotG3 previews taking screens.

I think Avatar 3 could even increase from the second. The scale of it is supposed to be even more amazing, plus hopefully China will have no impediments to the run next time.

It doesn't seem like the digital release has much of an effect on box office, especially for animated films. Minions 2 and Puss in Boots continued to have excellent holds even after they were available for purchase. It's the free release to a streaming platform that kills the legs.

Friday is Children's Day so makes sense Mario would get a huge boost as the premier movie to take the kids.

Nice, so Friday could be the biggest day for Mario after all.

True, there is some precedent for this to break out there. Soul grossed almost $60 million in China despite having a pirated HD copy out Day 1 and releasing in the heart of the pandemic. Probably could have had a Coco/Zootopia-esque run otherwise.

Yeah, I would guess maybe $10 million in China since it's coming out same day as The Flash. Western animation usually doesn't play too well, especially original films. Even Mario barely crossed $20 million there despite being big almost everywhere else.

Second Friday should be much bigger than OD Friday, but I'm not sure how much Saturday and Sunday are expected to drop.