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KP1025

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Everything posted by KP1025

  1. KP1025
    Nintendo being a co-producer will likely make the participations expense much higher for Mario than Minions 2.
  2. KP1025
    Surprisingly, Mario had the highest Latino/Hispanic share recently at 41%. ATSV had 34%.
  3. KP1025
    They did for Avatar 2, about a 6 month window. However, its run was still basically finished after 2 months. Even with longer windows, maybe it will take a while to condition audiences away from Disney+ and into theaters.
  4. KP1025
    Absolutely. Corpse has suggested this several times too. Either that or Disney+ needs to change. It’s not a lack of interest or faith in the Disney brand, it’s a lack of motivation to see their films in theaters specifically when they can watch for free at home in a few months.
  5. KP1025
    That's a common trend both before and after the pandemic. If you look at Top 5 post-Covid OS gross, the only exception is Mario (but that was huge for other obvious reasons). Avatar 2: $1,636,174,514 NWH: $1,107,732,041 TGM: $776,963,471 Mario: $738,589,354 (and counting) JWD: 625,127,000
  6. KP1025
    Not a big breakout for TLM, but I will take it. Legs will be interesting to follow, but at least it will avoid bomb territory like the rest of Asia. Saw some people thinking it could fall under $10 million in Japan too.
  7. KP1025
    Encanto would have been huge pre-pandemic for sure.
  8. KP1025
    I think we just need to wait and see the effect of genuine WOM spreading via friends, families, etc. Due to circumstances surrounding this movie, might be best not to take too much stock of its website ratings.
  9. KP1025
    The Numbers midweek OS updates are often too low or too high. Not sure what the reason is. Last week, they were $10 million too high on the OS number (around $732 million vs $722 million BOM) before the weekend. So when the weekend numbers came in, their OS number barely increased.
  10. KP1025
    With how Disney+ has affected Disney's standing with theaters and audiences in Japan, I would consider that a win.
  11. KP1025
    MI6 grossed ¥4.72 billion in Japan, are you expecting a huge increase for MI7 after TGM?
  12. KP1025
    Have Tuesday bumps become more muted post-Covid? I haven't seen any major blockbuster get near that kind of Tuesday increase in recent years.
  13. KP1025
    5th biggest Tuesday of any film post-Covid, behind NWH, Avatar 2, TGM, and Mario.
  14. KP1025
    I think it has to be intentional. Got this trailer before watching TLM, and the audience had a laugh at the complete opposite portrayal of mermaids in that film.
  15. KP1025
    As steep as FX's decline has been, I wouldn't expect that to happen for another 2 weeks at the earliest. That's if Mario doesn't drop hard from shedding screens itself.
  16. KP1025
    Don't forget The Last Samurai. Doubt it would have grossed ¥13.7 billion in Japan without Tom Cruise as the lead.
  17. KP1025
    The Numbers is better for tracking dailies. Their only problem is that they sometimes don’t update the OS grosses for older movies. BOM tends to have the most recent totals, which is often tens of millions higher than on The Numbers.
  18. KP1025
    I was one of those that called over I2 DOM locked for Mario after the amazing second weekend hold. Definitely a case of getting too caught up in the hype. The $600 million DOM dream has been on life support since GotG3 opened, but I think we can call it dead dead after this weekend.
  19. KP1025
    That's a great drop for TLM after losing PLFs. Better than the 60-65% drop many were expecting last week. After this weekend I think it can stabilize with nice legs, as nothing is really competing with its core female audience until Barbie.
  20. KP1025
    For the record, a $55 million True Friday would be higher than Incredibles 2's.
  21. KP1025
    First one grossed $63 million in China, so that final forecast would be disappointing given the exceptional reviews. Mario also ended up around $25 million in China despite excellent ratings.
  22. KP1025
    Just over 15% drop for TLM on Thursday in the face of a massive opener like ATSV is very good. Was expecting a 25% or higher drop.
  23. KP1025
    BOM seems like the correct figure to me. Mario was at $717.8 million OS after a $13.1 million estimated weekend. There's no way it added another $15 million from just Mon-Wed, as that would be higher than the weekend itself. Japan also accounted for over a third of the weekend number, and it made only $2 million from Mon-Wed this week.
  24. KP1025
    Very doubtful. I think the growth from ATSV to BTSV will be much more reasonable compared to the growth from the first to second film. If Mario couldn't beat Frozen 2, I definitely don't see BTSV doing so either. Even $1 billion WW would already be a big achievement.
  25. KP1025
    Mainly short theatrical windows cutting off legs in Japan due to Disney+, causing lots of theaters to drop their films immediately once they hit streaming. Disney+ has hit Disney's box office in Japan especially hard since it's probably the leggiest market in the world, with certain films playing strong even 6 months after release.
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