ThiagoMaia

Honest question to @baumer (as the person who had the theory yesterday about increased demand because of discounts on tuesday big movies not countering the value of the discount), or to anyone who cares to explain. If that theory is true, shouldn't it get a smaller drop compared to the rest of the movies today? I was pretty convinced by the theory yesterday, but this has put me in doubt.

I'm seeing people say that if the good hold on Monday is from spillover that is not a good sign for legs, but wouldn't there be spillover into the next weekend? Some people can't watch it on weekdays, and the OW was sold out, so they go on the second weekend. Right?

Yeah, I figured as much, but couldn't quite remember the statistical tests I learned in college, and didn't have to the time to research more. The high correlation gave me hope, though. Still probably better than a gut feeling...

I think people won't give this much credit, and even I find it a little hard to believe, but I put all the top 10 openings on a spreadsheet, + GotG2 and found a strong correlation between Saturday to Sunday drop, and the multiplier. I removed AoU, considering it an outlier (which is reasonable, considering it dropped from true friday to saturday, and had a specially good saturday to sunday drop, which is usually attributed to the fight) and used 700 as BP's total, and I found a 95% correlation between Sunday/Saturday and the multiplier. Other strong correlations were Sunday/Friday (63%), and OW/Saturday (64%), all of these had projections very close to each other, from 2.98 to 3.20 multipliers, but the Sunday/Saturday had the best coefficient of determination. The projection based on A:IW using the Sunday/Saturday ratio, is 3.2 multiplier, for a total of U$ 824.52M. That has a coefficient of determination of 94% and a residual sum of squares of 0.015. Using only the MCU may openers, I get 3.13, with a total of U$ 809.01M. I hope my calculations are right, and IW keeps up the pattern, would love it to beat Avatar.

I agree, the preview percentage of the OD doesn't mean anything considering that it would be literally impossible to make much more OD than 2x previews. The true Friday is the largest ever, the only way the previews could represent a smaller percentage of the OD would be if it was lower itself.

Well, in this case what you're saying is not a matter of opinion, it's objectively false. There are really strong differences between the movies mentioned. I can't even think of why would someone call them identical.

They have 84% of the real number: 280 OW confirmed.

I have to watch Aliens and Fullmetal Jacket before sending my list. Two movies I believe I will enjoy a lot, but never watched. I have loved every Kubrick movie I watched, and I watched 1 minute of Aliens before having to stop because the internet was lagging, but it the ambientation just felt amazing.

Disney will be like:

Wow! Incredible number! All of the Sunday holds from the 200M+ openers would give it the record now, except TLJ. Civil War's hold would put it at 234 (why was that hold so bad? ) I hope it plays out closer to The Avengers than CW, it deservers every record, and I think it has the WOM to pull it off.

We would know, because he would report the numbers in fractions of Avatar gross. "Infinity War is headed for an opening day of 0.036A"

Really loved this movie! It felt like there wasn't a single non-epic moment in this movie. I am amazed at how well they've managed to do it. It is in fact exhausting, but in a good way. Can't wait to see it again. It certainly lived up to the hype for me, and I've never been more hyped for a movie. (This message is actually very self contained, my reaction is way stronger, really)

I'm very surprised at the number of trailer views, 4th all time only behind the two Infinity War trailers and It. I thought the trailer was better than the first, but doesn't look like a good movie at all. Hope I'm wrong, though.

Thursday: 52M Friday: 70M Saturday: 80M Sunday: 68M Total: 270M

Could BP actually increase next weekend?

Hey, I know that band!

I so wish I could make a club for IW OW over JL DOM

Hey, what does the soft and hard date mean? Also, not sure if this is going to make into my list, but find it worthy of consideration, since I don't see many people here talking about it:

The colon on "Strangers: Prey at Night" makes it look like a sequel, I for one have no idea what it is about, or if it is a sequel or not, and have no interest on finding out. I think A Quiet Place has way more buzz, it had a Super bowl TV spot, online trailer has more views, and great reviews. It certainly has way more breakout potential than Strangers: Prey at Night.

I almost loved it, saw it twice, but I would anyway just because it's MCU. Without getting into spoilers: I loved the villain (the secondary villain too), and the main hero conflict in terms of how to be a king. It had some moments that were just breathtaking to me, but I felt that the time was a bit poorly distributed (too long first act, too short rest). And the cgi was just so crappy at times, that takes away from the movie a lot for me. It's funny how my perception of movies after depends a lot on how many flaws I perceive in it. Spider-Man homecoming was a movie that didn't have much to make me love during the first watch, but remembering afterwards, the lack of problems in it made me like a lot retroactively, meanwhile BP had some of the greatest thrills, but the problems drag it down for me looking back.

It was a joke with the title that had Sat instead of Friday by mistake.

Wow, 16.5 Sat after a 16 friday? That must be the worst increase ever for a movie out of the opening weekend...

"Cut back to a week ago, and we saw T’Challa lower in the $90M-plus range, and then he just blew up. That’s apt to happen again as many believe he’s headed to $500M by Sunday. Black Panther is eyeing $16M today, -44%." Does this mean they didn't change at all their method for calculating the weekend based on last weekend's pattern?

Why do you say that? It was well stabilished previously. It was shown by Zola on The Winter Soldier, and makes sense with the character that Tony's father was as shown in CA1, Ant-Man and the Agent Carter TV Show. Or are you talking about Tony's reaction being stupid?