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Everything posted by Jake Gittes
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My first blind prediction would be something like 115-135m DOM (with an OW in the mid-30s and solid legs) and low 300s WW. If marketing is really striking and the film itself does justice to the original (certainly possible with this creative team) I could see it pulling a Fury Road - a low-to-mid-40s OW, up to 150 DOM, 350-400 WW. Of course there's an off chance that it could either explode or leave most of the GA uninterested, which immediately takes me back to the fact that we still don't really know shit. Unlike everyone up above, though, I am excited about the budget if it's true. I trust Villeneuve and Deakins too much to be suspicious about them working on that kind of scale.
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Is it so VFX-driven that it would require more than a year and a half of post? If it finished shooting this summer I'd expect it to be out next summer or fall at the latest. Edit: I misread, you ARE talking about next year. Still I'd hate to see this get lost in between Fast 8 and GOTG 2, hope they pick a better date. Hell June 9 would work better, it's not like WWZ2 is gonna be there.
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It's undeniably alive, and every movie in the genre that seriously connects with the audience thrives. Of 17 live-action musicals that have received a wide release in the past 10 years (starting from Dreamgirls), six comfortably crossed $100m and nine got over $85m. That's not a bad track record at all.
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There's been a hit musical every few years since Chicago. Dreamgirls, Hairspray, Mamma Mia, Les Mis, Into the Woods. Sure they're all brand names but the genre isn't in any way dead. And those are just live action musicals. People aren't rejecting movie characters breaking into song and dance numbers anymore. Also Birdman made 2/3 of its money before the nominations were even announced.
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T2: TRAINSPOTTING | 03.17.17 | Sony | final gross ● 2.40M
Jake Gittes replied to kayumanggi's topic in Box Office Discussion
Shallow Grave, Trainspotting and 127 Hours are actually the only Boyles I really like. But almost everything he's done is interesting enough that I'm always curious about whatever he's doing next. -
1 N Doctor Strange BV $85,058,311 - 3,882 - $21,911 $85,058,311 $165 1 2 N Trolls Fox $46,581,142 - 4,060 - $11,473 $46,581,142 $125 1 3 N Hacksaw Ridge LGF $15,190,758 - 2,886 - $5,264 $15,190,758 - 1 4 1 Boo! A Madea Halloween LGF $7,731,797 -55.1% 2,234 -65 $3,461 $64,921,852 $20 3 5 2 Inferno Sony $6,165,987 -58.5% 3,576 - $1,724 $25,973,917 $75 2 6 4 The Accountant WB $5,872,303 -30.8% 2,688 -714 $2,185 $70,780,497 $44 4 7 3 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back Par. $5,453,273 -43.4% 3,079 -701 $1,771 $49,113,273 $60 3 8 5 Ouija: Origin of Evil Uni. $3,869,765 -45.6% 2,380 -788 $1,626 $31,259,015 $9 3 9 6 The Girl on the Train (2016) Uni. $2,690,575 -38.7% 1,572 -1,186 $1,712 $70,647,940 $45 5 10 7 Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children Fox $2,050,229 -49.7% 1,710 -1,087 $1,199 $83,284,618 $110 6 11 16 Moonlight (2016) A24 $1,235,275 +45.3% 83 +47 $14,883 $2,989,973 - 3 12 8 Keeping Up with the Joneses Fox $1,092,302 -67.8% 1,064 -1,958 $1,027 $13,307,538 - 3 13 9 Storks WB $1,000,558 -64.9% 1,155 -746 $866 $69,968,062 $70 7 14 10 Ae Dil Hai Mushkil FIP $785,376 -64.1% 296 -6 $2,653 $3,621,941 - 2 15 11 Deepwater Horizon LG/S $750,084 -64.2% 783 -1,271 $958 $59,919,222 $110 6 16 12 Kevin Hart: What Now? Uni. $581,805 -66.0% 453 -1,203 $1,284 $23,132,285 $9.9 4 17 15 Sully WB $526,321 -43.5% 454 -401 $1,159 $123,286,540 $60 9 18 13 The Magnificent Seven (2016) Sony $452,520 -66.2% 490 -840 $924 $92,238,549 $90 7 19 14 Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life LGF $405,382 -67.9% 485 -810 $836 $19,120,167 $8.5 5 20 20 A Man Called Ove MBox $368,405 +0.8% 167 +17 $2,206 $1,863,381 - 6 21 17 Denial BST $292,447 -53.2% 218 -369 $1,342 $3,582,304 - 6 22 26 The Secret Life of Pets Uni. $279,005 +25.0% 237 -8 $1,177 $366,815,775 $75 18 23 21 The Handmaiden Magn. $271,343 -17.4% 98 +22 $2,769 $899,581 - 3 24 18 The Birth of a Nation FoxS $260,116 -53.3% 197 -207 $1,320 $15,572,307 $8.5 5 25 24 Suicide Squad WB $246,363 -12.8% 245 -87 $1,006 $325,021,779 $175 14 26 28 Certain Women IFC $168,750 -9.6% 135 +43 $1,250 $724,750 - 4 27 N Loving Focus $159,615 - 4 - $39,904 $159,615 - 1 28 31 Finding Dory BV $153,774 +11.4% 160 -5 $961 $485,885,200 - 21 29 25 Queen of Katwe BV $144,759 -45.2% 172 -66 $842 $8,420,570 $15 7 30 22 Desierto STX $131,646 -57.4% 102 -66 $1,291 $1,828,933 - 4
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I still haven't seen Eye in the Sky but I wonder if Helen Mirren could sneak up on everyone. She did get two SAG noms last year out of nowhere, one of them for a movie that came out in the spring. It's possible.
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Denzel and Affleck are the only real contenders for the win.