Jake Gittes

Hard to see it doing less than 50. If WOM really kicks in, 70 seems possible. If it actually gets a Best Picture nom that could be another 5-10m.

Just cause it'll be a Best Picture nominee doesn't mean it'll win this, as last year showed. And I haven't really heard anyone rave about its effects, granted I haven't read many reviews.

Who knew Kung Fu Panda fucking 3 could inspire such strong feelings in people.

After the full trailer I'm inclined to go back to Stone as the winner too. It looks like a performance that'll go straight for everybody's hearts. Portman has A LOT going for her and I certainly wouldn't be surprised if she took it, but she's in a chillier movie and a previous winner. Either way it should be the strongest competition in this category in years. Maybe even stronger than Meryl vs Viola in 2011.

1. Will Dr Strange open to more than $75M? Yes 2. Will Dr Strange open to more than $85M? 2000 No 3. Will Dr Strange open to more than $95M? No 4. Will Trolls open to more than $30M? Yes 5. Will Trolls open to more than $37.5M? 3000 Yes 6. Will Trolls open to more than $45M? No 7. Will Hacksaw Ridge open to more than $10M? Yes 8. Will HAcksaw Ridge open to more than $15M? 2000 Yes 9. Will Hacksaw Ridge open to more than $20M? Yes 10. Will Dr. Strange's Pure Weekend (Sat and Sun only) gross be more than the combined 3 day weekend gross of Trolls and Hacksaw? 3000 No 11. Will the three main new entries combine to more than $125M? 3000 Yes 12. Will Madea stay above Inferno? Yes 13. Will the Accountant cross $70M domestic by the end of the weekend? Yes 14. Will Dr Strange be the highest grossing total Domestic gross in the top 16? 2000 No 15. Will Ouija have a Saturday gross above $1M? Yes 16. Will Girl on the Train stay above Miss Peregrine? $3000 Yes 17. Will Storks cross $70M domestic ON Friday? No 18. Will Jack Reacher remain in the top 6? No 19. Will The Joneses have a Saturday increase above 40%? Yes 20. Will at least 2 films fail to increase 100% on Friday? 2000 No 21. Will Moonlight enter the top 12? Yes 22. Will Trolls' PTA be closer to Dr Strange or Hacksaw Ridge's PTA? 3000 Hacksaw 23. Will Loving have a PTA above $6,500? Yes 24. Will Ai Di Mushka Hai have a higher Sunday PTA than Madea? No 25. Will The Handmaiden stay above Suicide Squad? Yes 26. Will Mag 7 stay above Middle School? Yes 27. Will any film drop over 1000 screens and remain in the top 10? 2000 Yes 28. Will Dr. Strange's Actual Weekend total go up from the final BOM.com Estimates? 3000 Yes 29. Will Deepwater Horizon cross $60M domestic by Saturday? No 30. Now that I have put the idea in your head, will you be able to hear anything other than Hugh Laurie's Dr House when you go see Dr. Strange now? Yes Bonus: 18/30 2000 19/30 3000 20/30 4000 21/30 5000 22/30 7000 23/30 9000 24/30 12000 25/30 15000 26/30 18000 27/30 21000 28/30 25000 29/30 30000 30/30 40000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added Bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000, 5% 7000, 2.5% 9000, 1% 12000) 1. Predict Dr. Strange's OW. 78.561 2. Predict Trolls' Saturday Gross 18.754 3. Predict Hacksaw Ridge's Sunday Gross. 6.352 4. Predict the top 3 films' combined 3 day gross. 148.104 5. Predict Inferno's Weekend percentage drop 62.500% Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 3. Hacksaw Ridge 6. The Accountant 8. Ouija 10. Miss Peregrine 13. Keeping Up with the Joneses 17. The Magnificent Seven

Either it's a mistake and someone at BOM just typed in the same number as Almost Christmas or Paramount is having another Hugo/Flight moment where I guess they're hoping for a high PTA so that they can expand it in the weeks ahead. Though even with those movies I couldn't understand why they didn't just go wider straight away (especially Flight).

That drop on Inferno is hilarious.

Damn. I was hoping for a trailer seeing this bumped to the first page.

Arrival Jackie La La Land (winner) Nocturnal Animals Silence Alt.: Café Society

Arrival Deepwater Horizon Doctor Strange The Jungle Book Rogue One Gonna be between Jungle Book and Doctor Strange I suppose.

Oh we'll never abandon this thread.

That John Legend dialogue doesn't sound too great but who am I kidding I still can't stop watching it. Gonna be a long three months for me.

^ Nice avatar/comment synergy there.

Arrival strikes me as this year's "8-10 nominations, no wins" movie. I guess there's an outside chance of it taking Score or Sound, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I think Manchester By The Sea is being underestimated for a movie with so much praise directed at its writing and performances. Wouldn't be surprised to see it win SAG ensemble, and if there had been no La La Land this awards season, it'd probably be at least a temporary Best Picture frontrunner right now with Fences and Silence not seen yet.

It's the long-awaited feature-length Hollywood remake of this.

1. Where will Dr. Strange's OW rank all time for films taking place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe? 10 2. Where will Dr. Strange's Domestic total rank all time for films taking place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe? 9 3. Where will Dr. Strange's Worldwide total rank all time for films taking place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe? 7 4. Where will Dr. Strange's 3 Day Multiplier rank all time for films taking place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe? 7 5. How many weeks will Dr Strange's 3 day weekend totals finish in the top 12? 7 6. How many weeks will Dr Strange have a Weekend above $1M? 7 7. How many days will Dr Strange spend at number 1 in the US box office? 8 8. How many different days will Rogue One gross more than Dr Strange's Opening Sunday total? 13

Replace Larrain with Jenkins.

If Shannon won this I'm sure it'd be my favorite moment of the upcoming ceremony no matter what else happened.

Really liked I Am the Pretty Thing That Lives in the House. A sense-of-dread, slow-burn horror done right. And Ruth Wilson carries it beautifully.

This dude was pretty shamelessly aping Greengrass in Safe House. I guess he might as well try space thrillers now. Not sure if Rebecca Ferguson will get me to watch this or not.

I missed the weekly questions even this week. On the plus side I took Inferno out of my DOM and WW preseasons at the last moment.

This October, with one day left, has actually managed to outgross 2013 and will end up close to 2012. I assume it helped that October 1-2 were Saturday and Sunday, so we almost got five weekends when in 2013 there were strictly four. Year Total Gross Change Movies Avg. #1 Movie Gross % of Total 2016 $644.1 - 272 $2.4 Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children $70.8 11.0% 2015 $715.3 -5.6% 261 $2.7 The Martian $179.4 25.1% 2014 $758.0 +20.3% 271 $2.8 Gone Girl $129.6 17.1% 2013 $630.2 -6.6% 270 $2.3 Gravity $206.1 32.7% 2012 $675.0 +10.4% 257 $2.6 Taken 2 $119.0 17.6% 2011 $611.1 -11.1% 262 $2.3 Paranormal Activity 3 $83.5 13.7% 2010 $687.8 -0.8% 235 $2.9 Jackass 3-D $101.7 14.8% 2009 $693.4 +13.6% 223 $3.1 Couples Retreat $85.2 12.3% 2008 $610.2 +16.8% 240 $2.5 Beverly Hills Chihuahua $80.0 13.1% 2007 $522.6 -13.1% 246 $2.1 The Game Plan $54.9 10.5%

Inferno better come in under $15m with actuals. I want blood.