Jake Gittes

1. The Turin Horse (dir. Bela Tarr, Hungary) 2. Drive (dir. Nicolas Winding Refn, USA) 3. Chapiteau-show (dir. Sergei Loban, Russia) 4. Young Adult (dir. Jason Reitman, USA) 5. The Sunset Limited (dir. Tommy Lee Jones, USA, TV film) other favorites in no particular order: We Need to Talk About Kevin, Rango, Midnight in Paris, Attack the Block, Hanna, Submarine

1) Will Men Black make more than 5 mill from midnights? No 2) Will MIB have an opening day of more than 25 mill? No 3) Will MIB make at least 35 mill more than The Avengers does? No 4) Will MIB double the gross of Avengers? No 5) Will any film increase on Sunday? No 6) Will any film increase by more than 55% on Saturday? No 7) Will MIB have an opening 3 day weekend of more than 150 mill WW? Only Sunday estimates will count. 3000 Yes 8) Will MIB's worst grossing day of the 4 day weekend be higher than Chernobyl Diaries 4 day total? 3000 No 9) Will Chernobyl Diaries gross more than Battleship and Dictator combined? No 10) Will Dark Shadows drop less than 20% (so this means, will DS's 4 day drop be less than 20% compared to it's previous weekends 3 day number)? No 11) Will Best Exotic Marigold Hotel have an increase (same scenario as number 10...4 day to 3 day)? Yes 12) Will What to Expect When You're Expecting have a Saturday increase of more than 45%? No 13) Will The Avengers best day be within 10 mill of MIB's worst day? 3000 Yes 10/13 2000 11/13 3000 12/13 5000 13/13 8000 Bonus 1: What will MIB3 gross for the 4 day? $68.448m Bonus 2: What will the combined 4 day gross of Dark Shadows, Battleship and THG be? $25,985,996 Bonus 3: What will be the best combined increase for Fri and Saturday, % wise. So if you think Battleship will have a 220% increase Friday and a 75% increase Saturday, you would put 295% as your answer. If this is the highest total increase % wise, added up, then you get the points. 361.628% Three best answers gets points: 4000 3000 2000 What films finish in slots: 4 Chernobyl Diaries 5 Dictator 6 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 10 Think Like a Man

except... they don't? just my opinion obviously, but I thought the consensus was that they both look fine. was there a big, shared backlash when the pics of Venom were released, or was it just a small group of disappointed fans? i wasn't following these things in 2006/2007 so I don't know.I'd say with the kind of opening it had, SM3 would have at least outdone SM1 domestically and almost certainly become the first comic book movie billionaire. We would have gotten at least one another film from the same team, most likely in May 2010, when it might very well have been badly converted to 3D, but would have broken TDK's OW record regardless and, depending on WOM, finished with around $450m, give or take a couple of dozen million. In the best case scenario, it might have made a run at $500m DOM and ROTK's WW total. After that, Raimi, Maguire and Dunst either would have decided to move on or give it one last go, which we would have seen in 2012 or 2013, all while Andrew Garfield could do nothing but only continue dreaming of playing Spider-Man.

Yeah this week was pretty good for me. Thank you Avengers for having the closest drop to my prediction.

ROTK, TDK, TS3, Titanic = greatAvatar, Avengers = goodDMC, TF3 = weakAlice, DH2, OST = fucking atrocious

I only took a risk with Rock of Ages. Playing it kind of safer than last year, when I was one of literally three people to put Bridesmaids in their Top 12. Though last year I never lost as many points as I'm going to lose on TA (l overpredicted Cars 2 by $140m and KFP2 by $125m, but I'll have underpredicted TA by at least $220m), and who knows how much movies like Snow White, Prometheus and Rock of Ages are really going to make. Not counting BM, I was much more confident with my predicted numbers last year.

How is it doing that? Increasing 70% on Saturday?

I also predicted $55.4m and think it's a perfectly fine number... wouldn't have been shocked if it had gone for $60m+ (after the last two weeks, nothing box-office related will be able shock me for some time), but never thought it was likely. What really matters at this point is that it will almost certainly pass $600m, and this weekend's number won't do anything to prevent it, I believe.

If it follows the third weekend IM of Iron Man (which is closest to TA in WOM and numbers), it'll make $56.3m (45.4% drop)If it follows IM2: $53.5mWolverine: $53.9mThor: $54.4mSpider-Man 3: $55.7m

Boxoffice ‏@Boxoffice Official Friday domestic estimate: $15.308 million for THE AVENGERS from 4,249 locations. Location avg. = $3,603.

I'm going to lose more points on The Avengers than most people, but man, am I happy that I left both DS and BS off my Top 12.

1) Will Battleship open to more than 47 mill? NO 2) Will What to Expect open to more than 20 mill? YES 3) Will The Dictator open to more than 30 mill for the 5 day? NO 4) Will The Dictator's two day (wed-Thurs) gross be more than 10 mill? NO 5) Will the combined gross of The Dictator (5 day) and What To Expect (3 day) be more than the Avengers (3 day)? NO 6) Will any film have a Saturday increase of more than 60%? YES 7) Will any film have a Sunday drop of less than 24%? NO 8) Will The Avengers drop more than 45%? YES 9) Will The Avengers weekend gross be more than the combined gross of films in places 3-10? NO 10) Will The Avengers total gross be more than 450 mill? YES 11) Will What to Expect and Battleship both have increases on Saturday? YES 12) Will THG make at least 500k more than The Lucky One? YES 13) Will Safe House have an increase this weekend? NO 14) Will The Raven make more than Safe? NO 15) Will Think Like a Man fall less than 30%? NO 12/15 3000 13/15 5000 14/15 6000 15/15 10,000 Bonus 1: To three decimal points, what will The Avengers % drop be this weekend? 3000 46.231% Bonus 2: What will the top five cume be for the weekend (only 3 day counts) $152.226 million Bonus 3: What finishes in spots: 3 What to Expect 4 The Dictator 9 The Lucky One 11 Five Year Engagement 13 Chimpanzee 15 The Three Stooges

After seeing the trailer, I'll be disappointed if The Possession doesn't have at least a $10m OD. Unless AVLH breaks out that is.

TF2 was a Wednesday release. Take away $91m it made in its first two days, its total gross is $311m. Which would result in a 2.85 multiplier. And that movie was released in late June, not mid-May.

SOTM 3 - May 26

SOTM 2 - Grease

Baumer, you deserve a round of applause for these questions, especially for the last one. (I say that as someone who ultimately got all three wrong).

Nope... unless Chernobyl Diaries or The Apparition have a $10m OD, but even that isn't likely.

1) Will Dark Shadows open to more than 30 mill? Yes 2) Will Dark Shadows come within 70 mill of The Avengers? Yes 3) Will Dark Shadows drop more than 25% on Sunday? Yes 4) Will Dark Shadows weekend gross be more than any single day of The Avengers? Yes 5) Will The Avengers fall less than 55%? No 6) Will The Avengers fall less than 52%? No 7) Will The Avengers have a Saturday increase of more than 44%? Yes 8) Will The Avengers have a Friday increase of more than 180%? No 9) Will Girl In Progress make more than 2 mill? Yes 10) Will The Hunger Games gross more than 3 mill? Yes 11) Will Think Like a Man fall less than 38%? Yes 12) Will The Avengers fall more than 50% on Saturday from its previous Saturday? No 10/12 3000 11/12 4000 12/12 6000 Bonus 1: What will Avengers weekend gross be? 3000 $91.74m Bonus 2: What will The Avengers drop be? Three decimal places please. 3000 -55.774% Bonus 3: How much more will The Avengers make than Dark Shadows? 3000 $55.102m Bonus 4: What finishes in spots: 5 - The Pirates 7 - The Five Year Engagement 11 - The Raven 15 - The Three Stooges

Star Wars prequels.

While I wasn't there myself, and there's no way to check now, I'd assume that Iron Man must have surprised a lot of people with its $98.6m OW. And who could have possibly predicted it for #2 of the summer?The Avengers will take the cake, though, if it manages to stay above TDKR by September.

I knew Disney would fudge the fuck out of John Carter but never thought it'd end up #12. I mean... come on.

If you want to compare, OST made $26.5 mil in Russia in its first 4 days. And that was kind of the record.

The box-office in the Soviet Union was far and away above that of today, and it still is. There were tens of thousands of theaters around the country, and tens of millions of admissions was the norm for big films. Avatar's got nothing on that.

I have Avengers at 381. Not too happy about it.Though I now have more confidence than ever that TDKR can reach $545m I predicted for it.I also think I might have lowballed TASM with $244m, but I'd be shocked if it went over $300m, so if I'm to lose points there, I won't lose many. Same with Brave, for which I think $260m is a very safe prediction. I still think #5 is kind of a wildcard, but I felt confident in picking Snow White just because nothing else looked good enough to me - neither the animated sequels which everyone must be tired of by now, nor Prometheus with its possible R-rating, nor MIB3 which I think will follow in the footsteps of movies like Rush Hour 3 and Terminator Salvation. I think Snow White, with its strong cast, fantasy aesthetic and very good WOM potential will be more appealing than all of those. And I don't think that being released on the post-MD weekend is a factor.