I don't see Chazelle losing a spot to McQueen ("his last movie won BP" isn't a reason, we are talking about his new movie, and First Man seems like it'll be showier in the directing department), but he's definitely not in top 3 and could fall out if the McKay is Big Short 2.0.
I read a review of Widows that referred to Kaluuya's "two big scenes" and that may not be enough. He's being compared with Robocop and Anton Chigurh and to win for that kind of performance, as Bardem did, I think you need to be more prominent in the story. Grant looks like a safer bet.