Jason

Any difference between the final RT average and MC score of Moana and Zootopia won't be meaningful (ie. will be within what can be explained by sampling error). I wouldn't consider it an upset if Moana wins - either way, a very well-received and popular film will have won.

Would be nice to know how many of the US chains (if any) offered Moana previews with Tuesday discounts. The largest Canadian theatre chain (Cineplex) didn't even offer Moana in previews at any of their theatres in the Greater Toronto Area. Stinkers.

I actually never had the girls-are-yucky phase, Beauty and the Beast was my childhood favourite for as long as I can remember. (and it came out when I was 3, so I don't even remember the first time I saw it) I was a really nerdy, introverted kid though so I would have neither known nor cared whether boys were supposed to like Princess films or not. I don't think I even found out about that until reading about the gender-neutral naming of Tangled and Frozen.

I've finished adjusting all the films in the master table for ticket price inflation as well as exchange rates. Also added the following 12 films: Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Shrek 2 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Spider-Man Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban Spider-Man 2 The Da Vinci Code X-Men: Days of Future Past Also updated the exchange rate adjustment to be current as of November 18. Tables using exchange rates as of October 24, for comparison purposes:

This article best sums up why I think it's a bad idea for both parties: 3 Reasons Why Disney Isn't Buying Netflix

What? I wasn't patronizing it, and I'm pretty sure @James wasn't either. I was saying that most of my friends already had the books. That's because we were kids when the books came out. Not because the books are just for kids. As for why I'd expect purchases of new books to be for children as well, I meant to imply that most adults who would be interested would also already own the books by now. Kids = new people (literally) = new market. Obviously that's not true for new books specifically targeted to adults, but the Harry Potter books are not new and I presume that they remain as accessible to today's children as they were to my generation. Finally, I was talking about the books only, not the "wizarding world brand" in general.

If you adjust by exchange rates only, then yes, only DH2 would still have made $1B. If you adjust both domestic and foreign grosses by ticket price inflation as well, then the only film that drops out of the $1B club from that time period is The Hobbit. See table below. Exchange rates current as of November 18, adjusted figures are in bold: If you're interested, a more complete post on exchange rate/ticket price adjustment is here. List of ticket prices being used for adjustment is here.

Yeah, if it's not children that's surprising to me. Most of my friends bought their own copies of Harry Potter when they were kids, and still have them. I'm sure there are adults who still haven't read them, but it's hard to imagine them being the main market for new books.

Moana Beauty and the Beast Sing La La Land Rogue One The Red Turtle Passengers The LEGO Batman Movie Dunkirk Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

I'm going to take your word for it. At 309 reviews, I'll pass on doing a detailed analysis. Aside from Fantastic Beasts not having as many, it helps that I was recording them as they came in.

The average rating of the first three days of reviews (weekend + Monday), with all reviews: 7.3 Current average rating of all reviews: 6.9 Probability of this drop from 7.3 to 6.9 occurring as a result of random variation: about 10% Average rating of the first three days of reviews, American reviews only: 6.9 Statistically significant difference between British and American reviews: Yes, P<0.05 Overall, I'm leaning towards the overrepresentation of British reviews in the first few days at the most likely explanation for the drop in Fantastic Beasts' average rating. There may be other factors at play in the drop in the RT score. It does seem like the later borderline reviews (3/5 or 2.5/4) were more likely to be rotten than the early ones, as well as the unrated reviews. But I haven't done any analysis for that.

Don't forget about Finding Dory under $210M.

Oops. I was tired last night and took a "nap" from which I woke up well past the deadline. I need to start plugging in draft predictions sooner so that way I'll have something even if I don't do last minute adjustments.

Pretty similar to how I feel about Big Hero 6. I think part of the reason why I like it so much is that at the time I hadn't seen any other Marvel films, and even now only one, so the story doesn't feel generic to me. The characters are great, especially Hiro. There are also a lot of scenes I found very emotionally powerful. The first flight scene is one of my all-time favourites from any film, with absolutely beautiful scenery of San Fransokyo and its surroundings. I'm the one who put this in their top five.

75 points on Rogue One going over 400. Should seem like a bargain if you're 90% confident in sub 400. Do you accept? Anyone is welcome to join in on this one: 25 points on Rogue One going over 450, up to three people. (Yes, it's in honour of @Baumer liked Blair Witch's club)

Oops. I adjusted the foreign OW for inflation, but not the domestic OW. Taking that into account, adjusted ratio of Domestic/OS would then be 44%/56%. A domestic opening right now of $100M would then be in line with a $230M WW opening. (Small difference, I know, but I thought I should correct the record anyway.)

Yep, I've been tracking. Feeling even better about its nomination chances, but I'll wait a bit longer before changing the ranking in my prediction. Waiting for more reviews for Moana as well. Funimation really needs to announce a North American release already (not just in LA), I want to see it.

I'll take this.

@James Adjusting for both exchange rates and ticket price inflation, the foreign OW of DH2 excluding Japan would be $235M. Ratio of Domestic/OS OW would then be 42%/58% 44%/56%. A domestic opening right now of $100M would then be in line with a $240M $230M WW opening. I agree that the Harry Potter franchise is a "foreign champion", but I think you're underestimating the impact of the increased strength of the USD. Edit: Adjusted foreign OW for inflation but forgot to adjust domestic OW in original post (adjusts to $183M).

Technically true, but the article stated that DWA already had doubts, with two sources saying that Universal was just ratifying a decision already made by DWA.

I thought so. BOM often stops tracking grosses in individual territories before their box office runs are completed there, which is one of the reasons a portion of the total overseas gross of films ends up being untracked. The ticket price is substantially higher than what my spreadsheet churned out based on previous inflation, which actually predicted a slight decrease from 2015 because of ticket prices falling from 2013-2015. It makes sense that the fall in ticket prices has reversed though, since the general trend of deflation in Spain reversed this year as well. Which I hope is good news for the Spanish economy.

My figures are about 10-15% lower across the board. Your grosses in Euros are usually just a little bit higher (0-4%) than what I get from the exchange rate conversion of BOM figures. Are you getting them from a local source? The remaining difference must be the result of the inflation adjustment.

I personally liked HTTYD more than TS3 as well. It would have gotten my vote, but the available evidence suggests that would be a minority opinion among critics and even general audiences (although that's a close one), not just the Academy. KFP over WALL-E and Anomalisa over Inside Out are definitely minority opinions. Song of the Sea probably really did lose to BH6 because of less exposure (ie. being smaller), but that's Disney. I guess the point I'm making is that I don't think Pixar films (with the possible exception of Brave) are beating smaller films in Academy voting because of greater exposure. Thanks for sharing though, I was genuinely curious, because I haven't seen a lot of smaller films myself. Persepolis and Anomalisa are on the priority list now. Edit: I see some more people replied, while I typed this. Shaun the Sheep is on the list now as well. (Princess Kayuga was already there). I loved When Marnie Was There, better than Inside Out for me personally as well.

I've now adjusted all eight HP films for both exchange rate changes and ticket price increases. I haven't adjusted for 3D specifically because I can't find the data needed to make accurate adjustments. (Percentage of tickets sold in 3D by market, and price difference for 3D compared to regular by market.) That being said, it will partly be taken into account for in the average ticket price increase. Full details on methods for ER calculations are here, list of ticket prices is here, and full details of methods for ticket price calculations are here. Exchange rates are current as of November 11. "WW", "WW ER", and "WW TP" columns show respectively the original, exchange rate adjusted, and ticket price adjusted worldwide grosses. The "Dom" and "Adj D" columns show respectively the original and ticket price adjusted domestic grosses. The "OS", "OS ER", and "OS TP" columns show respectively the original, ER adjusted, and ticket price adjusted OS grosses. The "%Tr" column shows the percentage of the OS gross from individually tracked territories with exchange rate data. The "%Ti" column shows the percentage of the OS gross from tracked territories with ticket price data. The adjustment for the remainder of the OS gross is extrapolated from the territories where data is available. Adjusted figures are shown in bold. The figures do not take into account market growth in China that is a result of rising admissions rather than ticket prices. There's really no good way of doing that, since the expansion of the Chinese market has not resulted in a consistently proportional growth in the grosses of films (at least among Hollywood releases).

The only year that a Pixar film has beaten a film (of any size) with better reception is 2012, with Brave beating Frankenweenie and Wreck-it Ralph. Are there any smaller films that you feel deserved the award over Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3, or Inside Out, purely based on their own merits?