My opinion, and that won't change, is that they should award BP and Coogler. So what if BP isn't as good as TDK? newsflash: no SH is ever going to be as good as TDK. That's Citizen Kane of SH movies yet AMPAS had no problem awarding dramas that weren't even worthy of polishing Citizen Kane's shoes.
BP checks all boxes of a trendy Picture winner such as high MC score and importance/progressiveness, but it's also actually seen by masses and almost universally loved. And since AMPAS loves messages, isn't an all-black cast + Martin Freeman 1.3 billion-grossing blockbuster a big message in itself, way bigger than some indie that few people saw?
Moreover, this year has several contenders directed by black directors. AMPAS cannot bail out of awarding one forever, and IMO, the director who will make history should be an African American, sorry Steve McQueen. Oscars are still predominantly American thing and emotional and narrative value would be much stronger if the winner is an American, not a Brit or other foreigner. There are Coogler, Lee and Jenkins. I choose Coogler because his filmography is impeccable, a perfect blend of critical acclaim and populism, and his movie is groundbreaking in that it's #3 highest grossing movie domestically (also see paragraph 2 for more details).
I honestly don't think this would be a mistake, quite the contrary, it would be a mistake if the winner was something else.