AN9815

Too high, this movie will make $5m OW / $15m DOM and Secret Wars will be lucky to make $150m WW

Yeah, Quantumania was pretty bad and that was supposed to start Phase 5 and get the MCU back on track after a Phase 4 with no clear direction. I think that had a big effect on the future of the MCU and, unfortunately, Guardians Vol 3 and The Marvels will pay for it. I also think the Disney+ series are having an effect. On top of some of them being very mediocre/bad (Secret Invasion), it is also diluting the Marvel brand a lot and it no longer seems like a novelty or that you have to watch the next chapter in theatres. However, I am still hoping for the best for The Marvels. I think it looks pretty fun and don't get all of the hate it is getting, but looking at how toxic people can be with certain movies (The Little Mermaid, Snow White...) can't say I am surprised.

I don't think it was the downfall of the MCU nor that I wanted tons of cameos in it but people were definitely expecting something after No Way Home and WandaVision that was not delivered. Again, I don't think the movie is bad but I think if it would have been released before No Way Home people would have been more forgiving.

I think the problem with MOM is that it did not deliver what people were expecting. Was it a terrible movie? Absolutely not. Did it deliver what it promised or what fans/audiences were expecting after No Way Home? No. My biggest problem with the movie is how it completely ignored the events and Wanda's character arc in WandaVision.

Agreed. I mean at least with Shang-Chi we can expect him to be in Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars on top of his own sequel but two of my favorites, Moon Knight and Kate Bishop, are not even confirmed to return to any future project so far. This makes me so angry, don't introduce that many characters if we have to wait 6-7 years to see them again.

As a Marvel fan I must say that Quantumania was so bad that it made me reconsider watching every Marvel movie in theatres like I had been doing since Marvel's The Avengers (2012). Now, Guardians of the Galaxy. Vol 3 was fantastic but I also feel like the Disney+ shows have done a lot of damage. Not only because of their quality (I think some of them are actually decent/really good) but because of the amount of new characters they are introducing that we don't know when we will see again. Phases 1-3 had also mediocre movies but at least everything was well connected and you felt like the story was progressing. I didn't have that feeling with Phase 4 or, so far, Phase 5. I know they had a lot of issues with COVID and now the strikes but they should have really focused on a cohesive story line. What I mean with this is that a lot of Marvel fans are probably not watching every movie like they used to and are probably more selective, not only on quality but on how much it adds to the bigger story. Personally, I am very excited for The Marvels as I love Brie Larson as Captain Marvel and I quite liked Kamala and Monica on their respective shows. Also the movie looks really fun. However, I am less enthusiastic about Captain America 4 or Thunderbolts.

I mean it is not really a surprise. On top of the $1,4m previews, it also had an additional $3,9m added from early previews and NCD which burned a lot of demand.

This looks good, I don't get all of the hate this movie is getting. Could it be another Love and Thunder? Sure, but it can also be a great movie. I feel like people are hating this movie way to much. However, I will say that releasing one week before Hunger Games is a bad idea, it should move to the November 3rd date. It just doesn't make sense, same with Trolls 3 and Wish releasing the same weekend.

Honestly Disney's 2024 slate doesn't look that bad if budgets are not massively inflated. Snow White will do fine with a budget similar to Cinderella. MCU movies outside of Deadpool 3 should break even if budget is not +$250m. Animated movies look very promising to, at least, match Elemental and not be another Strange World. Apes and Alien should pull some numbers and totally depend on their budget to turn a profit. Biggest question mark is Mufasa since I don't think it can be done with less than $200m and I am not sure an interest is there to break $500m WW. A similar drop to Alice through the Looking Glass will give the movie $485m WW.

Yeah Ant Man was pretty bad, and that comes from someone who actually liked/loved the previous ones. With great reviews this could have easily crossed $600m

In my opinion Elemental run has been great and I think Disney will be happy with it at the end. We will see for sure with Wish, Elio and Inside Out 2 but I think this is the right path for WDAS and Pixar animated movies. After Lightyear and Strange World massive bombs I was afraid people had completely abandoned original animation but looking back those movies were really not that good and did not connect with audiences at all. Elemental opened pretty low but its legs and its OS performance have been great to the point of going from one of the biggest bombs of the year to a break even point. But most importantly, I think it brought some faith back on original animation post COVID.

I am not a defender of Ant Man 3 at all but why is it on par with huge bombs like Strange World and Haunted Mansion? It underperformed but it made $475m WW on a $200m budget.

That is true. However, Barbie is enjoying these holds and reviews and it is resonating with its target audience because it is a Greta Gerwig movie and she made a fantastic movie.

I know Jungle Cruise was technically a failure but it also released in 2021. I think it would have done much better, specially overseas, with no pandemic. Maybe somewhere around Rampage...

I know these are low and high end projections but $27m DOM for Blue Beetle would be horrible, good thing WB has Barbie. OTOH, $145m for Turtles would be amazing, would love that to happen but I just don't see it yet

$9,9M for Spain is insane

Without getting into spoilers for Fallout, although that movie was released in 2018, not keeping Henry Cavill for future movies was a mistake. He was incredibly good in Fallout, also very sexy

Barbie as the Princess and the Pauper is pretty iconic, so are Nutcracker and Rapunzel.

I can't believe people like this exist, what a loser

I think Barbie legs will play like Spider-Man: Homecoming. A big second weekend drop and then great legs throughout August. Btw, the movie was fantastic, my favorite movie of the summer and probably the year so far. So glad so many people are watching this movie. Barbie ranking: 1. Barbie (2023) 2. Barbie as the Princess and the Pauper 3. Barbie as Rapunzel 4. Barbie as the Island Princess 5. Barbie of Swan Lake 6. Barbie in the Nutcracker 7. Barbie: Fairytopia 8. Barbie and the Magic of Pegasus 9. The Barbie Diaries 10. Barbie in the 12 Dancing Princesses

My list (will update if I think of more): 1. Brokeback Mountain 2. Love, Simon 3. Everything everywhere all at once 4. All about my mother 5. God's own country 6. Rocketman 7. Boys don't cry 8. My own private Idaho 9. Booksmart 10. Bohemian Rhapsody 11. Call me by your name 12. Handsome Devil 13. Carol 14. Moonlight 15. The power of the dog 16. Pain and glory

A lot of these summer blockbusters could have been hits if not for their inflated budgets. Fast X, The Little Mermaid, Transformers, Elemental, Mission Impossible. The Flash and Indiana Jones would have flopped regardless.

I had never heard about Sound of Freedom...anyway is it going to outgross The Flash DOM?

Maybe I spend too much time on Twitter and TikTok but I think the Barbie/Oppenheimer weekend is going to be insane. It definitely feels like an event. At the end I think Warner Bros made Nolan a favor by releasing Barbie the same weekend cause people associate one movie with the other and I honestly feel like that alone will add $10-20m to the Oppenheimer DOM OW

I don't think Dead Reckoning - Part 1 is going to flop but I never understood the absurd predictions for the movie. It is the 7th movie in a franchise which has never been particularly huge in the US, people are not going to suddenly go nuts for it. I always thought it would finish around $200-250m DOM range, worst case around $180-190m which I think with the WOM it is having it will at least reach that. I also think the "Part 1" aspect might have an effect.