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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. Make sense that pretty much what STX seem to be able to do when it goes well outside the Bad moms franchise.
  2. People knew already about AQP good holds going forward I would imagine, the number they are curious is how Rampage will play, were between the monster movie ultra frontloaded nature to the family audience the Rock can get it will end up to be.
  3. Really ? John Wick is pretty much has dumb fun has it can get that I would have imagined. Reading some of the synopsis of positive reviews: If Keanu Reeves can make a comeback with John Wick, then I hope John Wick can make a case that there is an audience for cheesy action flicks of yesteryear in modern cinema This revenge film looks slick, stylish and despite its camp story line, keeps you engrossed throughout with a strong impact. ... the kind of action movie that Hollywood rarely makes anymore: simple, streamlined, with action scenes that rely on physical rather than computer generated elements. It's a rare screenplay that can introduce a compelling action character, create an entire world just beneath our own, and entertainingly destroy it from the inside out all in a hundred minutes. John Wick is a slick gangster flick simmering in a suppurating green light, featuring Reeves as a kung-fu assassin pursuing... well, the plot's not really important. What is important is the fact that Reeves is still doing this at 50. Maybe Sharknado would be a better example, it is at 83% on Rotten tomatoes after all.
  4. Random people on the Internet claim for a movies has little to do if something / someone is selling well or not too. Look at the list of non-horror live action movies achieving to do 50-100m weekend without being a sequel/adaptation of something really popular or a biopic of a big name/historical big moments.... You have Avatar, Dunkirk (big for the UK but maybe not that big of a sellers domestic)/Inception, first Men in Black/I Am Legend/I robot/Hancock, 8 miles, The Martian, Gravity, Ted, 300, 2012/Days After Tomorrow/San Andreas arguably WWZ. Not that many if you remove Will Smith prime and Nolan. The Mummy is one of the biggest movie franchise of the 2000s with some budget rumors talking about a budget has high has 190m, if people would have believed that 125m budget rumors that movie would have been perceived has a nice success with it's over 400m result. Rampage will spend more than $80m in marketing I would guess more over 100m, but a mid budget 120m movie does not need to do $400m WW (except if it is extremely China heavy), Elysium was that price tag (about 130m net production cost + participations bonus) with a $100m world release and turned a profit with 286m$ WW, the studio estimated it's break even point around 219.9m WW (1.76 time it's budget) Rampage opened close to $150m WW, that is some franchise movie type of opening for a first entry, it will be very hard to turn that has not selling.
  5. I imagine many of the franchise entry non voice role could never happen or take time, must be hard to schedule those assemble movie that were not locked to happen in advance: Gemini Man (filming) Henry 2019Aladdin (post-production) Genie 2019Spies in Disguise (pre-production) Lance Sterling (voice) 2019Suicide Squad 2 (announced) Deadshot Bad Boys 4 (announced) Mike Lowrey Bad Boys for Life (announced) Detective Mike Lowrey Bright 2 (announced) Daryl Ward
  6. As for SUICIDE SQUAD 2, clearly moving out of 2018 shoot. The move to go with BOP not only had a lot to do with Hodson's script but also the idea of doing with BATGIRL what Marvel did with Black Panther in CIVIL WAR by introducing them into universe before giving them own film Or what they did for everyone except Superman recently, Harley Quin, Batman, Wonder Woman, Joker, Aquaman, etc... they all appeared before getting their own movie (or a plan to get one)
  7. I take saying play like a family film is a quick way to say good weekend/Thursday night preview ratio and weekend heavy vs weeks days ? You are right about implying a good dbo total / OW legs ratio that should not happen with a monster movie that tend to be top heavy vs family movie, it is more a family disaster movie then.
  8. That was for a while, now teens tend to cost a fortune to bring (well that what rampage did spend a fortune) and is a smaller and smaller portion of the ticket buyers. 18-24 are even bigger by capita than the 12-17 now: In 2016, the 18–24 age group was the most overrepresented age group in terms of tickets sold, accounting for 10% of the population and 16% of tickets sold. The 12–17 and 25–39 age groups are also overrepresented for tickets sold (13% and 24%) relative to their share of the population (8% and 21%). In the past teens (12-17) were like 30% of the ticket buyer instead of just 13%, population got older and teens did stop to have jobs/go out a little bit: 12-24 ticket sales 1985: over 50% 1999: 41% 2016: 29% I imagine that could be why movie targeting teens getting out by themselves are often low budget horrors and nothing much ambitious money wise in recent year's.
  9. 63% above 25 for the weekend is almost the same has Wrinkle in time: http://deadline.com/2018/03/a-wrinkle-in-time-black-panther-weekend-box-office-1202324260/ adults over 25 who turned up at 61% and graded the pic a B-. Tomorrowland was also 61% Family are getting small, you will often have 1 or 2 kids for 2 parents,
  10. Twelve-to 16-year olds are the film’s biggest and most urgent read on tracking. Previews began at 7PM. Thanks that answer it,
  11. It does walk the edge, but it does seem to be weekend days heavy, the concept do seem to be really targeting the 10-12 year's old boy like a transformer and mom's love Dwayne. A bit strangely, I have not seen any audience breakdown (male/female, under/over 25, family, Johnson fans, etc...) for this anywhere I cannot find it with google. That movie is rated General (not even with parent supervision) in my market, must be really soft borderline pg-13.
  12. When we talk about not knowing the budget because a number is writing by a guy at box office mojo: But the issue comes down to the two companies’ different views of the “final net cost” of the movie. Kennedy Miller argues that it is eligible for a $7 million bonus for making the movie under the agreed $157 million budget, while Warner Bros. claims that it went well over $185.1 million. In a cross-lawsuit filed by Warner Bros., the studio accuses Kennedy Miller Mitchell of breaking contract over the film’s intended runtime and rating. Using pre-approve mpaa rating or runtime clause of the contract trying to void it sound like a cheap shot (pretty sure they were ok with not enforcing them at the time), but that lawsuit make sense of the rumors we did read at the time about the movie possibly being much more than 150m according to some. https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/movies/bitter-court-battle-over-mad-max-fury-road-blocks-two-new-movies-20180412-p4z98o.html Oh it is very simple, reshoot were 31 million dollar, production company claim WB agreed to not count them in the budget and penalize them bonus wise for it, studio say otherwise... That sound a bit in contraction with Miller claim in a interview that the test screening were not stressful because he had final cut privilege.
  13. I really do not get the pointing out Fox wanted to sell (obviously), no one ever suggested that an hostile take over was going on. I think the Murdochs event control to company with a dual class of share (that give them a lot of votes by share they own) like other family type business, nothing can happen to them they do not want too. What does it change to the nature of the deal sucking or not from a movie going audience ? If it was hostile or not, the result would be the same for them no ?
  14. “I refuse to go to a game right now or even watch on TV,” she said. “I was really hurt by what he said. At least they will stop laughing about the snowflakes/trigger/micro-agression/safe zones types of comments and understand them.
  15. It can be a bit misleading to not add every type of ticket (2d, 3d, imax, fan previews...) when compared to a movie like a quiet place that has 100% of is sales in one. To do it rapidly and automatically in excel, text to column, the function LEFT() and data consolation fonction can do it easily.
  16. Yes (how much you were in the marketing is often the big question) , that was not is point the article was saying Johnson in a lead role.
  17. Was still exploding the first 2 month of 2018 for local production: http://variety.com/2018/film/asia/hollywood-sidelined-china-box-surges-in-jan-and-feb-1202714089/ http://en.people.cn/n3/2018/0308/c90000-9434390.html And March was even a better growth, a ridiculous non sense 51%: BEIJING - Chinese box office raked in more than 5.1 billion yuan (about US$813 million) in March, up 51.7 percent from a year ago, with a total of 140 million tickets sold, according to Maoyan, a major film database in China. https://www.chinadailyhk.com/articles/223/87/24/1522656687664.html Must imagine some timing of when some holidays take place to explain 2018 month to month comparable surge, but it is impressive and a bit similar to how crazy the growth was before 2015/16 Not as much for Hollywood entries too.
  18. It is an obvious issue (a bit but even bigger than Rampage currently is for RPO), it has some room from it in one key market at least (China) and we are not talking about long legs, but at least we are not talking about good legs scenario when we are comparing it to franchise type entry and it had a good cinemascore/internal multiplier. PRu for example had really terrible drop.
  19. With germany, poland, japan still to come out in mind, if we compare to other big monster/disaster movies with global opening I think it could happen and I am not sure it require a 3x multi to do it. Kong Skull island did around a 221.26m global opening for a 566m total, 2.55x global multi. San Andreas did around 179m global opening for a 473m total, 2.64x I could imagine somewhat similar to San Andreas here, even with the good word of mouth and being a family movie, you have Infinity War coming up in many markets. (148.6 + say 10m in market left to open) * 2.65 would go at 420.3 If it does Kong skull island, 404.43m Tomb Raider did 23.6m domestic + around 100m intl opening weekend's, will probably end up doing a 275m, for a 2.23 multi, that would be a 353m performance for Rampage, but following legs of a giant video game franchise movie when you are not one would not be particularly good.
  20. Elysium turned a 20m profit for the studio with that Oblivion box office numbers and a 126m net budget. Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $93,050,117 32.5% + Foreign: $193,090,583 67.5% = Worldwide: $286,140,700 To give a bit of an idea about Rampage if that 120m rumored budget is close to the truth. Elysium expected profit for different box office scenario with is 126m budget and 100m release. DBO: 91.6, intl: 128.3 WW: 219.9, break even point, $0 Return break, fixed at 15.5% ROI at 145m dbo/203m intl, 348m WW for a 53m profit
  21. That must be the complete plan of MoviePass eating at theater profit margin by customer in exchange in a promises to not cut their volume of customer by directing it to a competitor (or even augment it by making it cheaper to go to the customer).
  22. $29.95 a month for 4 2D movies, average 2D movie ticket price is probably around what $8 ?, so yeah just have to drop 0.5 movie a month to make sense, but at the same time very few will take that deal, you would need to have pricey 2D movie in your city and almost always consume the 4 movies to make a significant rebate.
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