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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. Has for Hancock, being a huge director and huge actor movie get your answer right there, getting Smith to waste time on a sequel (what could be possibly the point from what I remember it was all explored) would have cost a fortune. Like Independance day 2, bad boys 3 or the massive fortune it did cost to make a Men In Black 3, getting someone like Smith, specially around the appropriate time for an Hancock sequel is far from easy. Not as extreme but a bit like saying why no Inception 2/ET 2/Back of the future 4 orreboot, because often it is not a studio that is in control of them, a bit like Ghostbuster you often need to people with the actual control over the franchise to be eager to make money. It is rarely surprising to me for a sequel to not happen if a powerful actor/producer/director need to agree with it.
  2. Any source supporting that, from what I just read it was not in the script and he didn't film it with no one asking him too do so. Learning that he didn't had any form of conditional final cut and was worrying about that possibility that if he would have filmed it, some exec could have pressured him into putting it is not surprising obviously, but that a returning director on a sequel of a 1.6b dollar movies....
  3. Would also need to go with Jumanji, most easily seen Wonder Woman doing 220/240m, it didn't double it's expectation. https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-wonder-woman-captain-underpants/ 6/2/2017 Wonder Woman $83,000,000 NEW $225,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. It comp, end of october: https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-jumanji-welcome-jungle-pitch-perfect-3-downsizing-father-figures/ Jumanji making 175m dbo was seen has a really good number for it (look at the comment section.... people putting 100m in doubt) 12/20/2017 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $22,000,000 NEW $175,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia Jumanji had a 6/10 critical reception (not that it is in a genre that it matter, arguably good for it) was at 52.77m after it's 5 days and almost did 8 times that 5 days OW.... And yes there is room during that holiday place, a bit of a different audience and all that but it did this against Star Wars Last Jedi one of the biggest movie ever.
  4. No one ever said that, the claim was challenged was needing to reach 350m to 400m to turn a profit (without specifying a ROI in mind, I took it has the break even point). The gap between profit bonanza (say 22, 25% ROI) and break even is often hundreds of millions at the box office apart. Those 400m like figure you saw for Wrinkle in Time turning a profit is some film Internet from theatrical alone talk (one that make no sense at all and provide little to no information imo) The general point here was trying to show how common it is for domestic movie (what WiT would have been if it would have made say 220m with a 100-110 dbo) heavy making around 2.0 time their budget to turn a profit, it is some really prolific and highly paid people career.
  5. You usually do not need to make 400m with a domestic heavy title like WiT to be profitable with an around 105-120m production budget and a usual 95-130m ww P&A. That number people has in mind could come from this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2018/03/08/review-a-wrinkle-in-time-delivers-weird-fun-and-heartfelt-family-entertainment/#69e87d631eb3 With about $200 million in production and marketing costs, the film needs to finish in the vicinity of $400+ million worldwide to turn a profit from theatrical receipts alone. That number is completely different one that the GB-break point (and a rather useless / theoretical strange one), if you are domestic heavy (with a release spending that was realistic about) that and have a really large budget, it is perfectly possible to turn a profit without necessarily even doubling or barely doubling your budget at the box office, see http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=themagnificentseven.htm for an example look at Denzel Washington filmography they rarely go over 2.5 time their budget Mag 7: 162m on a 90m rumored net budget (that one real net budget was probably between 77m to 85m too), it had a limited expectation of it's possible performance (studio had 85m/65m intl for 150m WW in mind) so it had a reasonable 75-85m budget with a 75-85m ww P&A planned in consequence to still turn a profit with that type of box office. Last 10 year's of Denzel box office vs rumored budget: RJQ: 12.19m on a 22m (.55) Fences: 64m on a 24m budget (2.66) Mag 7: 162m on a 90m budget (real budget around 85m or less) (1.905) Equalizer: 192m on a 55m budget (was more 73m gross / 63.075m net in reality) (3.04) 2 guns: 131.94m on a 61m budget (nice budget for that pair, 77m gross, 17m tax credit from Louisiana) (2.16) Flight: 161.77 on 31m (5.21) Safe house: 208 on a 85m budget (2.44) Unstoppable: 167.8m on a 100m budget (1.67) Book of Eli: 157m on a 80m budget (1.96) Pelham 1-2-3: 150m on a 100m budget (the real net budget was 115.43m) (1.29) On that last 10 year's, 10 movies, Denzel went above is rumored budget 2.0x: 5 times 2.5x: 3 times 3.0x: 2 times and getting a sequel on one of those Put it this way in is complete career only 2 Denzel movie reached 200m at the box office (266m American gangster on a +100m budget and Safe House mentioned above on a +85m budget) and their budget's are around 100m. The men still get paid 25, 30, 35+ million to play in movies with is 20m + first dollar gross deal he tend to get, why ? Domestic heavy, good home ent perf, third party financier easy to find and low risk when he is involved even if the upside potential reward is capped to a low amount.
  6. I do not think there was a 250m in P&A reported specially with how many market are getting limited release outthere, the world P&A could have been like 100m low now ? That 250m was a rumored for it's production budget + world release. 250m world P&A, not even monster spending world release like Amazing Spider-Man 2 type of world release got to 200m, Wrinkle in Time is not in that class.
  7. Issues is Disney early reported budget tend to be massaged down a lot. Many believe the net budget is more in the $120m range: http://deadline.com/2018/03/a-wrinkle-in-time-black-panther-weekend-box-office-1202324260/?v=8 However, it is because of Disney’s enormous global B.O. track record that they’re able to swing at the fences with this lavish sci-fi fantasy (some believe it’s more in the net $120M range before P&A) of A Wrinkle in Time with a big-name cast including Reese Witherspoon, Oprah Winfrey, Chris Pine, Zach Galifianakis, Mindy Kaling, etc. They spent 85m gross/67m net below the line in California alone after all with shooting made in New Zealand also, with post production made in Canada (Ontario & Québec with Rodeo FX) & England (One of US/MPC) & New Mexico & Georgia & Texas. To give some example of below above the lines ratios: Annie 32.8 above, 44.93 below 5th wave: 15.3m, 37.7m below The Equalizer: 36.5m above, 36.5m below Pixels: 32.4 above, 97.26m below 21 Jump street: 25m above, 30m below 22 Jump Street: 38.68m above, 45.82 below Considering how many big names were attach to Wrinkle + the adaptation rights of a really big book you need to buy, hard to imagine now having a +30m there, making it's net budget around 97m + out of California expense like Canada/UK SFX and shooting in New Zealand, making that rumored 104m or so net budget on the very low range and what it could be. Has for it's international performance, if they are not cancelled or end up limited like in many market you still have poland, portugal, sweden coming up but I would not expect much if this is not an error it is already out of the 24 ww: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/comscore-announces-official-worldwide-box-office-results-for-weekend-of-april-8-2018-300626064.html Must be an error, if it did 3.1m dbo this weekend it needed only to do 150k intl to get over 3.225m and make the list and it must have considering it did 4.8m last weekend and it opened in many place this weekend, but the fact that it's international performance is not even tracked by comscore is not an encouraging sign at all. So if the real budget is more 120-125 than 100-105, a 100m domestic with a 35-40m intl or something like that with barely be above that, that said those big WW P&A rumored figure was before Disney decided to cancel a lot of wide release in many market I must imagine, probably ended abit smaller than those 130-150m talked figure, maybe closer to 100m
  8. Not if serious ? http://www.metacritic.com/person/emily-blunt?filter-options=movies&sort_options=metascore&num_items=30 https://www.the-numbers.com/person/16050401-Emily-Blunt#tab=acting She was having a great career before this year with hollywood casting her in studio projects all the time....
  9. I think that will change now that China sequel boost is down, second sequel are a bit rare to have a nice sample size (for a while many released when 3D occured + China, making it safer to growth). The issue for TR growth is China reception, 6.4/10 on douban is quite low, lower than Last jedi 7.2: https://movie.douban.com/subject/3445906/ Since 2016 second sequel international grow: Conjuring 2: 217.9 vs 182.1 Now you see me: 269.8 vs 234 Paddington: 196 vs 192 Guardian : 474 vs 440 Kingsman: 310 vs 286 Many didn't really grew adjusted for inflation here Decline: Neighbors: 52 vs 120 Snow white: 116.6 vs 241.3 Daddy home: 76 vs 92 Jack Reacher: 103.4 vs 138.3 Ninja Turtles: 163.6 vs 302.1 PRu: will see 212 vs 309 has of now Alice Wonderland: well.... Greek wedding: well that a 14 year's wait Not sure if Last Jedi count. Ninja Turtles was a mini breakout OS and the sequel declined a lot.
  10. In the sense the concept never existed since Television become popular in the first place or ? What would the concept of breaking even in theater alone mean exactly (no one ever put what the equation they use) and what would it represent ? That was Sony 2006 to 2014 released movies total sources of revenues and expenses breakdown: Amount are in thousand of dollar. Source of revenue Amount % Domestic Theatrical 5,359,831 18% Intl theatrical 4,896,173 17% DOMESTIC HOME ENT REVENUE 7,151,339 24% DOMESTIC HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 591,133 2% INTL HOME ENT REVENUE 3,167,917 11% INTL HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 173,369 1% DOMESTIC TV PPV REVENUE 263,639 1% DOMESTIC PAY TV REVENUE 1,656,035 6% DOMESTIC FREE TV REVENUE 1,088,838 4% INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION 4,659,861 16% AIRLINES AND MUSIC 217,513 1% CONSUMER PRODUCTS REVENUE 270,395 1% Total $29,496,043 Source of expense Total % DTH MARKETING (5,866,385) $ 21% DTH PRINTS COS (871,294) $ 3% DTH WPF DUES OTHER COS (340,165) $ 1% ITH MARKETING (2,601,562) $ 9% ITH PRINTS (COS) (1,062,961) $ 4% ITH WPF,,,ER (COS) (270,762) $ 1% DHE MARKETING (1,044,398) $ 4% DHE RELEASING COSTS (1,280,725) $ 5% IHE MARKETING (486,013) $ 2% IHE RELEASING COSTS (820,764) $ 3% TV MARKETING (43,802) $ 0% TV OTHER COSTS COS (68,834) $ 0% DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS 9,256,003) $ 33% OVERHEAD (808,450) $ 3% PARTICIPATIONS (2,234,617) $ 8% RESIDUALS (1,024,544) $ 4% Total (28,081,279) $ 100% Theatrical was 35% of the revenues in average and the average movie make less in domestic ticket rental than what it cost to release it domestic, how many movies make a profit when looking at just 35% of their revenues and what would it mean in particular ? Why even bring that special metric, I do not remember anyone ever giving an explication ? International TV (4,659,861) was much bigger that the total profits made of 1.4b, that were most movie make all their profits if they ever make one not before that.
  11. Constantly around each hours I think, you can see the last update time at the top.
  12. Someone not so long ago posted 2 little python website he made tracking them: http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt
  13. Resident evil retribution is so close to that too. 86m net budget, 42m domestic, got a sequel. Has for a sequel for TR, it's rating on China audience reviews make it harder to greenlight imo, regardless of the profitability of this one (not something that need to be taking into account when talking sequel, nothing to do with how much this one does but how much the second one would)
  14. And what would that be ? studio almost never report a budget for a movie. Trying to find where that rumor started it seem to be here (not easy to find people using reported budget being instead of Hollywood reporter "sources say"): Sources say The Mummy cost about $125 million after a considerable U.K. rebate, and Cruise is said to have earned $13 million upfront with sizable backend participation. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/can-universal-create-a-marvel-like-universe-mummy-monster-flicks-1008839 That is not really studio is reporting a $125m budget.
  15. Who ever knew that movie budget too... rumors goes from $125m to $195m from 3.2x to only 2.1x it's rumored budget.
  16. Competition is currently strong to be on the top 5 but isn,t a bit early to be talking about top 5 for a movie like rampage, fandango for example look like this (never made the top 15 I think yet): 2018-04-07 23:00:00 1635 A Quiet Place 2018-04-07 23:00:00 506 Blockers 2018-04-07 23:00:00 396 Ready Player One 2018-04-07 23:00:00 323 Avengers Infinity War 2018-04-07 23:00:00 188 Black Panther 2018-04-07 23:00:00 137 Tyler Perrys Acrimony 2018-04-07 23:00:00 105 Isle of Dogs 2018-04-07 23:00:00 88 Ready Player One 3D 2018-04-07 23:00:00 79 Pacific Rim Uprising (2018) 2018-04-07 23:00:00 74 Ready Player One An IMAX 3D Experience 2018-04-07 23:00:00 60 Avengers Infinity War 3D 2018-04-07 23:00:00 55 Chappaquiddick 2018-04-07 23:00:00 53 Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience 2018-04-07 23:00:00 39 I Can Only Imagine 2018-04-07 23:00:00 35 Love, Simon 2018-04-07 23:00:00 34 Tomb Raider (2018) 2018-04-07 23:00:00 33 Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience 2018-04-07 23:00:00 28 Sherlock Gnomes 2018-04-07 23:00:00 25 A Wrinkle in Time 2018-04-07 23:00:00 24 The Miracle Season 2018-04-07 23:00:00 22 Game Night (2018) 2018-04-07 23:00:00 21 Grease 40th Anniversary (1978) presented by TCM 2018-04-07 23:00:00 20 Super Troopers 2 2018-04-07 23:00:00 10 Rampage (2018) Latest pulse: 2018-04-08 11:00:00 942 A Quiet Place 2018-04-08 11:00:00 307 Ready Player One 2018-04-08 11:00:00 287 Blockers 2018-04-08 11:00:00 183 Black Panther 2018-04-08 11:00:00 144 Chappaquiddick 2018-04-08 11:00:00 116 Tyler Perrys Acrimony 2018-04-08 11:00:00 115 Sherlock Gnomes 2018-04-08 11:00:00 111 Isle of Dogs 2018-04-08 11:00:00 87 I Can Only Imagine 2018-04-08 11:00:00 86 Ready Player One 3D 2018-04-08 11:00:00 82 The Miracle Season 2018-04-08 11:00:00 73 A Wrinkle in Time 2018-04-08 11:00:00 59 Ready Player One An IMAX 3D Experience 2018-04-08 11:00:00 58 Avengers Infinity War 2018-04-08 11:00:00 57 Pacific Rim Uprising (2018) 2018-04-08 11:00:00 36 Love, Simon 2018-04-08 11:00:00 30 Grease 40th Anniversary (1978) presented by TCM 2018-04-08 11:00:00 25 Paul, Apostle of Christ 2018-04-08 11:00:00 16 Avengers Infinity War 3D 2018-04-08 11:00:00 16 Tomb Raider (2018) 2018-04-08 11:00:00 14 The Death of Stalin 2018-04-08 11:00:00 13 Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience 2018-04-08 11:00:00 11 Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience 2018-04-08 11:00:00 9 Gods Not Dead A Light in Darkness 2018-04-08 11:00:00 9 Peter Rabbit 2018-04-08 11:00:00 8 Ready Player One The IMAX 2D Experience 2018-04-08 11:00:00 8 Finding Your Feet 2018-04-08 11:00:00 7 Pacific Rim Uprising 3D (2018) 2018-04-08 11:00:00 6 The Leisure Seeker 2018-04-08 11:00:00 6 Game Night (2018) 2018-04-08 11:00:00 6 Back to the Future 2018-04-08 11:00:00 6 Rangasthalam (Telugu) 2018-04-08 11:00:00 6 Rampage (2018) It is not a franchise movie you need to reserve seat or any possible spoiler (you know the movie pretty much already) that you need to see it first weekend, who would buy a ticket days in advance and why ?
  17. Released in only 61 theaters according to mojo, Disney do seem to have cut their lost on that one.
  18. Most if by a bit over 50% that is true, if by the vast majority that was not the case. Ancillaries are most of the revenues for a studio for most movies and were all of the profits are made for almost all movies, profit theatrically is not just most film's don't, it is closer to almost none do since the marketing cost for a release exploded. It is not an expression ever mentioned in any of the Sony leaked e-mail or document I have read, never seen it calculated, not sure it is something that exist has an expression outside film Internet, probably something that exist because box office number are somewhat public and people think movie budget are public (or think they are a much larger % of a movie total cost than in reality)
  19. You are talking about 2 very outdated concept (looking at domestic and some expression about being in the black from theatrical alone something almost no Marvel movie do). Everyone always take into account world releasing cost, who would not want to use the WW gross for a movie and why ? If TR would made 500m it would have not been in the black from theatrical alone, look at Thor 3 estimate: http://deadline.com/2018/03/thor-ragnarok-box-office-profit-2017-1202349475/ Theatrical rental: $367m Total cost minus the home ent release and residual: $409m That gave an idea of how high of a strange standard that from theatrical alone expression is, now think about from domestic theatrical alone.... almost no big movie ever achieved that. With a 50m theatrical release, a movie with a 110m budget + overhead would need to do over 300m domestic to break even from domestic theatrical alone and that would be by cheating and not considering the massive participation bonus that would have started.
  20. I think it is just a digital Alexa with a 65mm less like Die Geschichte eines Parfüms, Gerald's Game, Chaos Walking, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, Dogs of Berlin, Breathe, Mary Magdalene, Dark Tower, Alpha, Snowden, Life, Revenant, The Haunting of Hill House netflix series, etc...
  21. I did too, I must imagine that this is some wait for RPO audience to start buy ticket for this kind of phenomenon ? China recent Dwayne Johnson Output: Jumanji: 78m Central Intelligence/Baywatch: no-release I think Fast7/8: like 350-400m San Andreas: 100m Hercules:13m Not sure what could be the issue for Rampage to not achieve a 60-70m kind of run at least there.
  22. This imo, he is 71 and has like 10 projects already on a to do list, burning life year's on a sequel can happen on something like a Indy 5 with the objective to is legacy sake to not have had that franchise end on the Indy 4 note, but on a RPO 2.....
  23. US is one of the country with the cheapest pretty much everything (video games consoles, gasoline, food, cars, etc...), including movie theater ticket. $28.75 would be normal in London and some cities but in the US that would be extremelly expensive and for something special: Scandinavia is specially expensive: http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Cost-of-living/Cinema-ticket-price/International-release#amount https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-expensive-movie-ticket-prices-around-the-world.html Because Hollywood plays such a dominant role in the global cinematic landscape, it’s not surprising that North American movie ticket prices lie on the lower end of the international movie ticket price spectrum Don't think it is specially the reason giving in the article, it is cheaper probably because it is a nation with a much lower cost of living in general.
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