Barnack

140m-170M, 170M even if it include China sure would be really great for a non-franchise/sequel title. Only Japan, Poland, Germany has major market not opening this weekend too.

He could be trying to reach that billion dollar revenues as an actor mark or something like that. That project seem out of a market study choice of what he should do and audience told marketer what they like him to do (even look a bit like Sherlock on that promo picture). Has for risk, maybe I am not getting the good vibe from the little marketing, but project like this can often fail to turn into a good movie and there is some room to try to achieve an higher bar than most of what we got in that space.

Not similar to BFG level. BFG did 18.77 3 days, 22.7 4 days on a rumored 140m budget, RPO budget of 180m is just 28.5% higher, a comparable opening would be around a 24.1m 3 days / 29.18m 4 days for RPO (note that those gross estimate can be dangerous because some releasing and other cost do not raise 1:1 with a production budget, a movie with twice the production budget is not necessarily and not usually twice as expensive). The BFG 30/70 dbo/intl will hard to beat too, no gain will be made in that sense I suspect (except for who know's China phenomenom, but it would be surprising, lot of old school american's pop culture here), same for the 3.0x legs, RPO need that much better than BFG domestic opening.

So why opening Wednesday is not 100% helping it I am not sure to follow what is going on, you mean versus a Tuesday opening ?

It is 3M below Atomic Blonde after 25 days and that did 51.5m with summer days, Atomic blonde did $231,58 at is day 25 vs 239k for RS 4th weekend: $2,179,190 (1,628 theater, 1339 PTA) -51% vs $2,248,846 -50% (1,482, $1,517 PTA for RS) Maybe RS could achieve to gain a little bit on AB if it ever achieve to get has many or more theater (Atomic Blonde 5th weekend was -60% going down to 989 screen, so possible to gain a little bit there), but it would not be easy to do 50M, that would require to gain 1.5M on Atomic Blonde legs.

I would imagine they are counting all those days into that 50m they want no ? Or it is they want a FSS 50m + what they make wednesday and thursday ?

Bargaining power can only be judged by what Landmark give them (I mean MP are giving them money, that does not require any bargain), what kind of deal they got, concession bought by their MP client/all audience percentage and how much for example or what kind of reduced by ticket price ?

Would not call Star Trek an unestablished franchise too.

Baby Driver and The End of the world were summer Wednesday if I remember correctly ? they did extremely well, I think it is common for Holiday type weekend to not open a Friday with thuersday previews. I think you can see a list of movie that didn't start Friday here, section Previews For Midweek Opener: http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html Last Airbender seem to be the other big previews/OD numbers in live action outside the 2 mentioned above.

It can take a long time I think those are the only Intl market somewhat filled by BOM and Wrinkle was not playing in many of them: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/ Deadline is not really talkative either in there weekend international breakdown we do not have any playing X percent of what Tomorrowland/BFG/Peter's Dragon did type of comparable to give us an idea of where it could be heading ( I would imagine they tend to be distributor value giving to them to print and Disney has little to say about it)

Even considering the movie would have opened a day before (at least in Canada you can buy ticket for this Wednesday the 28th and they tend to match the US nowaday) ? They are going for a 5 days of BO opening weekend...

It is by default I think, I was suggesting a faster way to follow a thread without having to use the strategy of posting an empty message so you will follow the thread.

You can click follow (button just right to the thread title at the top)

I saw it pop-up a bit on Fandango sales (not sure yet how to interpret those week in advance numbers too), it is a Perry thriller movie getting is 2,000 theater staring Taraji, regardless of what the movie happen to be quality wise, it has a good chance to open quite well domestic (and good chance to do nothing oversea).

And for an event movie like that, a lot of those ticket would still have been bought.... (while less true for non event movie) Look like they sold among the smallest proportion of their tickets via MP on that list, those movie success is probably due to audience that do not go to theater often getting into the hype and not an specially over representation among regular movie goer caused by movie pass. Lady Bird look a bit low on that list, I imagine it is just because it was released quite a while ago when the userbase was small than for the newer release (that would be why a Game Night rival a Last Jedi here I imagine, growing membership + so much of Last Jedi ticket not being MoviePass possible).

Going from a 35m tracking to a sub 20m opening for this would be quite surprising, it is showing quite a bit in pre-sales and is getting an incredible 4,100 theater count vs 3,357 TC for BFG, with a lot of special, 3d, imax screening. The smaller 4,000+ theater OW of live action movies are The mummy (31.7) and Blade Runner (32.75m) for 4,100 theater or more it is Independence day resurgence (41m) I would expect Ready player One 3 days minimum opening to be somewhere Blade Runner and ID, it has so much awareness and volume going for it, a terrible PTA would still push it considerably above The BFG.

And giant monster movies legs (outside Jurassic Park) can often be really weak to start with, Godzilla legs were still better than Cloverfield, 1998 Godzilla had some of the worst leg of that year also. As for people complaining about not enough of Godzilla (I think it was well done that anticipation, payoff of seeing him was really well made and the movie was always playing with that) I would imagine that yes they didn't watch for the most part the old classic Japanese movies, even 1933 King-Kong much more seen was probably not seen by the majority of the domestic audience of Kong Island. The unlikable protagonist was I imagine a bigger issue here (and not achieving to reach the female audience), but the movie still got a B+ cinemascore and those legs are not that specially bad for the genre considering the size of the OW and Days of Future past opened (90m 3 days ow/110m 4 days) during it's second weekend that is huge competition to a movie that was playing the best with the younger male demo.

Not sure why I thought Nickelodeon was an other name for Disney Channel...... but yeah I imagine it is fully accross the board here.

You could be right, would it not be because of what you describe: Taking Disney channel for an example. https://www.wsj.com/articles/disneys-channels-kids-are-tuning-out-1499166003 Ratings for the Disney Channel fell 23% in prime-time among its core demographic during the first half of 2017, while Freeform — which targets teen viewers — was down 25%. The lost eyeballs also mean that exposure and sales for Disney merchandise — including toys and clothes — is likely to suffer. https://www.fastcompany.com/4042433/basically-no-one-wants-to-watch-the-disney-channel-anymore Disney is not alone, though: Prime-time viewing has dropped by 34% in the past five years for people ages 2 through 34. Maybe they would have continued to protect him, those cable network were huge cash cow until recently..

Well I will not score that high using only the sales a relevant time before the days I would think too, that technic simply make me able to make that good of a prediction of a day box office around midnight of that very day (not sure if we can still call it a prediction for something that already happened).... a bit too late to be able to use it on any betting type/fantasy BO website I would imagine. How good it is to predict the box office a couple of days in advance is what could be really useful and I imagine will be more complicated to achieve and give a much smaller correlation level. Still just for a fun goodies if it is only good at predicting one day or 0 day in advance, following a particular days sales with a converter in expected BO could be fun to have with a little graph that show the burst and the total sales for some day's in particular and for big movies to come.

Comparison of those gathered sales vs actual box office now released, with "adjusted ticket sales" were I count every 3D sales as 1.2 ticket, adding an other 15% if it is IMAX 3D and 10% for regular IMAX, a quick search for the average 3D ticket surcharge didn't brought anything quickly on Google, so I went for those made up numbers, but I imagine some people would have a better idea of what the average surcharge for what type of PLF tend to be, here it tend to be 3$ on a 10.50/11$ ticket type of deal, making that 20% boost one on the reasonable side. That why you can see a fraction for the numbers of ticket sold in the Adj Sales column. With that little adjustment and by having used a long sampling of time (around 18h30 to midnight), I already upped my correlation factor from 0.89 to 0.95/.96, by sampling a complete week 10 times by hours before the days, filtering for sales for ticket showtime of the actual days we want to estimate box office and with a small correction for genre / rating how many days into the movie run we are, maybe we could get to .97-.98 or so. Peter rabbit, love simon, wrinkle, etc... played a bit more comparable and sold more before 18h30 I would imagine than the rest, love how close PR:U, BP and TR are, I Can only Imagine/Paul also seem to be playing a bit in the similar way or how closer the R-rated one like Game Night/Red Sparrow/Prey at night/Annihilation are from each other versus the rest, Death wish always played a bit more walk up heavy and below that one the sampling is getting too small to be relevant. Isles of Dogs seem to continue the tradition that very new hyped movie are over-preselling, looking at is PTA I would imagine people were reserving seat quite a beat. Sunday March 25th, 2018 Title Adj sales Box office $ by sales Pacific Rim Uprising (2018) 22567.42 7,214,895 319.7 Black Panther 14855.6 5,040,386 339.3 Tomb Raider (2018) 8297.8 2,865,143 345.3 Love Simon 7159 2,101,043 293.5 I Can Only Imagine 6891 4,292,296 622.9 A Wrinkle in Time 5082.4 2,457,156 483.5 Game Night (2018) 4711 1,078,207 228.9 Sherlock Gnomes 4576.6 3,202,603 699.8 Unsane (2018) 3354 947,792 282.6 Paul Apostle of Christ 3219 1,637,641 508.7 Isle of Dogs 2841 486,894 171.4 Midnight Sun (2018) 2573 1,091,000 424.0 Red Sparrow 2418 633,730 262.1 The Strangers Prey at Night 2156 554,614 257.2 Annihilation 1380 270,439 196.0 Peter Rabbit 1083 836,919 772.8 Death Wish (2018) 907 335,346 369.7 The Death of Stalin 480 283,049 589.7 The Greatest Showman 354 181,051 511.4 7 Days in Entebbe 284 180,175 634.4 Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle 235 241,668 1028.4 Fifty Shades Freed 154 78,615 510.5 Thoroughbreds 90 53,605 595.6 The Shape of Water (2017) 75 72,158 962.1 The Hurricane Heist 50 26,599 532.0 Getting Grace 38 33,450 880.3 Star Wars The Last Jedi (2017) 31 27,506 887.3 Gringo (2018) 26 10,512 404.3 Flower (2018) 22 23,409 1064.0 Maze Runner The Death Cure 20 23,380 1169.0 The 1517 to Paris 18 23,667 1314.8 I Tonya 17.2 16,568 963.3 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri 17 30,257 1779.8 Lady Bird 14 9,393 670.9 12 Strong 13 10,162 781.7 Ferdinand 10 30,670 3067.0 Hostiles 10 6,059 605.9 Winchester (2018) 10 16,938 1693.8 Coco (2017) 7 37,000 5285.7 The Post 5 22,706 4541.2 Correlation 0.95755577

The 50 shades readership had a considerably higher income than the average population and was Kindle like device heavy, I would imagine that this is a fanbase with a significantly higher than average IQ. That is not how that work at all (trash pleasure to low IQ people and vice versa), people that work a lot/do a lot will tend to like the very easy to digest no effort brain Transformer/SuperHeroes/50 Shades/Star Wars type movies to "turn off their brain" and go back to work/doing something right after.

Reading the rules, look like you cannot have more than 66% of the main staff being foreign to qualify has a co-production, looking at the creditied crew: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2557478/fullcredits Some but maybe not 33% of Chinese name in there, same for the special effect and companies list that helped on that movie: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2557478/companycredits?ref_=ttfc_sa_3

Is first weekend show how safe of a project it was and how much it made sense to try it (would have been just well received in China.....), but if it get legs monster movie + sequel + reception (B cinemascore from the fans OW crowd) I suspect it will not end up a good use of capital no. Do anyone finnaly know if Wanda got local production retention rate in China for this ? Or foreign production ?

For this showing (would have to make sure that I do not count the same transaction many time when the sales are slow enough for the 1,000 latest sales to not have change, refer only to the relative % above): https://drafthouse.com/calendar/littleton https://tickets.fandango.com/transaction/ticketing/express/ticketboxoffice.aspx?row_count=209695814&tid=AAWWA&from=Redirect.aspx&mid=176742&wssaffid=11584_GoogleMoviesOneBox(Web)&wssac=90&refreshdate=04%2f11%2f2018 With people i imagine buying often more than one ticket at the same time, it will not be directly obvious to make sure I get only unique sales.