Barnack

Death Wish had a significantly lower PTA, I would imagine Tomb Raider opening being a more direct competition ? MGM is maybe asking for less than a studio also.

Was really not too bad OW in Russia/Ukraine, but quite low in Spain and seem worst in France.... will see when a bit more markets open, it is true that 100m international - China do sound like a unlikely figure.

With 3,854 theater and nothing else opening over 2,400 this weekend... would need to be really front loaded no ? It has a lot of place until RPO. Except kids animation nothing with that many theater, well nothing with 3,300 or more theater opened below 15m last year, Geostorm is the movie with the most theater to do it, with a 13.7m opening and 3,246 theater. If Tomb raider do the same per theater average than those it will open at: King Arthur: 16.08m Geostorm: 16.26m Resident Evil Final Chapter: 16.97m Underworld: 17.28m American Assassin: 18.14m Ghost in a shell: 20.92m Atomic Blonde: 21.33m Red Sparrow: 21.36m Jigsaw: 21.92m Below 15m would require a significantly lower than last year Resident Evil/Underworld per theater average and that do sound very unlikely, it is still a giant franchise, WB close to 4,000 theater release with nothing really saturated opening against it and last week Wrinkle of time being different enough in term of competition. 20M OW is still fully in play, there is just volume here, would not fall off a chair if it do 14.8m but would be really surprised if this go under Resident Evil Final Chapter per theater average, American Assassin look like it's floor, performing exactly like Ghost-Atomic Blonde-Red Sparrow per theater for an around 21m OW is a good prediction and just need a 10% over them PTA wise to make that over 23m upper side of the studio prediction. Could be franchise frontloaded to make it possible but I do not think it will play like a franchise/sequel that much, there is not the excitement for that and should have a more normal Thursday previews / OW multiplier.

My o my, you were not exaggerating at all http://www.cine-directors.net/boxbis.htm http://www.zickma.fr/top-premier-jour-des-sorties-du-mercredi-14-mars-2018/ It opened out of the top 12 doing around 55% of Selma start at the french box office despite having twice as many theater... That is below a very american centrist movie like Hostiles.... Could it do less than 2M there ? Or it is just caused by looking at family movie performance mid-week and they play only during the weekend ?

Some people are probably quite happy with how Death Wish performed, the fact that it got such a post release support media push: http://variety.com/2018/digital/news/death-wish-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1202718855/ The movie did almost more domestic opening weekend than pretty much every Willis release post Red 2 (that around 12 movies) and that include a big Sin City sequel. Not a bad sign for Glass or for MGM return in distribution. As long as that type of title (like den of thieves, 12 strong, Statham action vehicle) continue to overperform on home entertainment / tv like they did in the pass of course.

They clearly stated in interviews that the deal did not include Bond and that they would explore option to see if they would go with MGM or if someone would want WW distribution that the option was open, I do not think it ever went officially to them.

Don't have a domestic distributor picked either I think, I would imagine they will have the door open to any option.

Organised group watch probably pre-buy ticket to event much more than individual and I can Only Imagine should have a disproportionate amount of those.

The book was heavily domestic I think, when I was looking at google trend by market before the movie reviews came out it was domestic heavy:

Is this different than Gareth Evans, George Miller, Ridley Scott and so on ?

I think you are mistaken the conversation, I never called Bay an hack myself, was just pointing out the common definition of a hack filmmaker and that it was not mutually exclusive with being good at what you are trying do or commercial success. Maybe but many would have Ford, Hitchcock, Cameron, Chaplin, Lucas, Spielberg, Cecil B. DeMille above and some would have arguments for the Kapra, Zemeckis, Peter Jackson and some others. Hack is more about calibrating your art into lower common denominator to achieve commercial success, please studios, etc... than being untalented, you need to be really good to be a hack that work for a long time usually.

hack [hak] noun A person, as an artist or writer, who exploits, for money, his or her creative ability or training in the production of dull, unimaginative, and trite work; one who produces banal and mediocre work in the hope of gaining commercial success in the arts: As a painter, he was little more than a hack. Hack tend to have commercial success.

It got a regular A- from the under 25 and under 18 group too.

Being spring break it is hard to tell (Monday was stronger than usual) In those special case, it become more what the other in the same situation did (specially when all the numbers are out): https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart With every entry hold compared to each other (and it is usually look good to take the previous hold into context to judge the new one: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2018/03/12) +24% seem standard, not particularly good or bad, Heist did +43%, Gringo +33%, Annihiliation +24%, Panthers +26%

I imagine it didn't age well but I think there is some character he pull off ok to well, at the time I really love the parents in the first transformer and the main trio in Pain&Gain, well I just really loved Pain&Gain in general and the musicality of is characters (was perfectly cast to achieve that) It is hard to have an argument against what you are saying and I was not able to finish Transformer 4 nor Transformer 5, it is how much value one put at the kinetic and scope Bay is able to create and in "vulgar auteurism". Everyone has seen this at this point I would imagine, that show is strength: Maybe is biggest argument that he is not an hack is how many copycat that tried to do what he do did completely failed at getting close to him, he is clearly gifted to an elite level in what he do.

THat was a giant bestsellers and pop culture phenomenom: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_books Sale around the same as the first Hunger Games/Gone Girl/Girl on a train book apparently, that OW was really not surprising same for the heavy frontloadeness, really a giant fanbase and one that goes to the movie theater.

Surely distribution matter here, but it is not that automatic that selling it or trying to distribute it worldwide mean it would have played 20/80, very few movies does that (That fate of the furious level, even Tree of Life didn't play 20/80 but a more sensible 25/75) Some recent example: Under the Skin (2014) Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $2,614,251 48.6% + Foreign: $2,766,000 51.4% = Worldwide: $5,380,251 Ex Machina Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $25,442,958 69.0% + Foreign: $11,426,456 31.0% = Worldwide: $36,869,414 Her Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $25,568,251 54.0% + Foreign: $21,783,000 46.0% = Worldwide: $47,351,251 District 9 Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $115,646,235 54.9% + Foreign: $95,173,376 45.1% = Worldwide: $210,819,611 And I know you do not like him but: Arrival Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $100,546,139 49.4% + Foreign: $102,842,047 50.6% = Worldwide: $203,388,186 Lot of called intelligent by many Sci-fi still do close to 50-50 type of dbo/intl breakdown, Inception did 35/65, Interstellar did 28/72, A.I did 33/66.

That will apply for the series and what not, but someone excited to watch Annihilation ? Will pretty much always be on the tv (if they prefer watching on the tv obviously not the case for everyone)

Most of Netflix content is watched on big HD TV, few watch it on computer and almost none on a tablet, specially after the first month (were people are excited to try it on their cellphone but rapidly stop doing it), 70% of Netflix content is watched on TV: For movies it must be close to 100% on the TV. Who watch their Netflix movie on a computer or tablet ? (outside when they travel)

Does look decent could not find many non summer/non holiday weekend big family movie, but Cinderella did -73% and Jungle book did -77% first monday drop. They had a 21% and 27% tuesday boost respectively.

A Wrinkle in Time grossed $2.64M on Monday. 4-Day total stands at $35.77M Because of the 4 days holiday weekend Tomorrowland had, Wrinkle in time will start with a nearly 7 million lower total after 4 days. Would be hard to make up for it I would imagine, Tomorrowland finished with 93m

Some thought it could because the marketing made it look more like some mainstream movies that did blow up in the pass looked like than most of the other LGBT movies since Brokeback Mountain (that were often closer to arthouse fare).

We could go by going by individual case about chance, but it is always good to look at the total number. The percentage of director that get to do only one movie in their career when they are: White male: 54.3% Asian Male; 60% black male: 62.5% White female: 79.3% Woman of color: 83.3% https://annenberg.usc.edu/sites/default/files/2017/04/06/MDSCI_Inclusion _in_the_Directors_Chair.pdf Only 20% of female director get to direct a second feature. It could have mitigating factor explaining those number obviously, the average commercial success of the first movie can be in reality different, talent pool could be larger making it an average a better director for some category than others..... etc.. But in the financier mind, if the director do not look as the usual director they have in their mind, they remember it more, take more attention and if they considerer they were giving a chance too/taking a risk on, will blame that person more for the failure. And as you see it is much more gender than ethnicity that is a barrier for director second chance in that industry. Ava getting a second chance to a studio movie level (say above 35m budget) if WiT fail financially would be a nice step for the industry (that until recently woman took decade to follow a success like Patty Jenkins, Debra Granik) and that is not necessarily because studio do not want to hire them, there is some the market place to not accommodate their taste of want they want to do (at least in financier mind). .

Maybe it is the best they could find for the similar festival, but using an 100% original movie 45m movie like Baby Driver with an under 35 million world global opening as a comparable is a bit strange for a Spielberg giant budget movie with a long running marketing campaign and adapted best seller adaptation. I mean that movie regular twitter volume before anyone had seen it was already close to what Baby Driver festival premiere reaction peak according to the article.... Does not tell us much if that 19K is good or bad.