Barnack

The only help of the casting change is not loosing people that will not have wanted to see a Spacey movie and make some junket more pleasant for the cast if they do it, but otherwise I agree, prevent some lost but I do not expect to be much if any gain versus nothing would have happened. It could certainly get lost, but it has what it take to work (very fast to explain high concept, big name director, nearly 90% on RT) Recent comparable: http://www.imdb.com/search/title?genres=biography,crime&num_votes=2010,&release_date=2010,&sort=boxoffice_gross_us,desc&title_type=feature Black mass: 62.5m american made: 51m J edgar: 37m The infiltrator: 17m Hard to see doing as well as Black Mass/American Made, but maybe between Infiltrator and J Edgar (middle ground is 27m, Patriot Day made 31m last December release for Walhberg, The Gambler 33m, so 25-35m is probably a good range to expect), not being a world studio release I would not expect a too good intl ratio too.

Does not seem to be able to find older data with internet archives very much and they move a lot over time: TFA: DATE # TWEETS POS:NEG RATIO March 21, 2016 20,118 31 : 1 March 20, 2016 24,794 30 : 1 March 19, 2016 24,041 31 : 1 Rogue one: DATE # TWEETS POS:NEG RATIO January 03, 2017 117,142 8 : 1 January 02, 2017 125,207 7 : 1 January 01, 2017 111,135 3 : 1 DATE # TWEETS POS:NEG RATIO January 26, 2017 33,722 16 : 1 January 25, 2017 99,959 13 : 1 January 24, 2017 108,132 17 : 1

Wonder if there is not a cancellation under X circumstance as an exit door if they do not like the metric and announcing that now to show confidence and try to muster some interest that it is it, the first Netflix made movie that will have some form of General Audience impact/footprint people.

The box office pro twitter pos/neg ratio is indeed really low, but I am not sure if it is representative. DATE # TWEETS POS:NEG RATIO December 20, 2017 154,916 4 : 1 December 19, 2017 195,028 3 : 1 December 18, 2017 240,620 5 : 1 How representative that non random group would be and how small it it is, not sure how good at tracking them box office pro is, but we are talking about 200-500k twitt a day, divide say by 5 for the amount of unique users, we are getting what over 50 million people that have seen that movie by now, the immense majority not talking about it on tracked platform. In my day to day life at work and so one I had heard more Force Awaken is just a copy complain than complain about this one, that said not many big star wars fan in that feedback, really general audience like.

I think because of this and legs: . And on ComScore/Screen Engine, Last Jedi earned an 89% overall positive score and a five-star rating from moviegoers. That’s in the wheelhouse of what Force Awakens earned (90% overall positive/ 4 1/2 stars) and Rogue One (91% positive, 4 1/2 stars). Is it more divise among the niche population that write about their movies experience online in any way, yes (well maybe ? I heard people talking about some force Awaken backlash in the past also but never find any data even online comments type that supported that, was a very small minorities). Does that mean much too ?

that would be because greatest showman is getting some perfect score from some critics, that make it possible to still have an high average rating while having a lot of under 6/10 reviews. I imagine the other good reviews are more around 7/10 type.

Part of Fury got above mediocre imo, but the ending made sure to bring that down. End of Watch was a bit above mediocre imo. There was element of Harsh Time about that guy that was never himself in is 3 posturing life that was also really interesting. But yeah a Landis/Ayer project.... a very commercial proposition movie starring Will Smith that do not get a studio interested, nothing surprising here for sure.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3778644/locations Showing all 3 filming locations Pinewood Studios, Iver Heath, Buckinghamshire, England, UK 3 of 3 found this interesting Fuerteventura, Canary Islands, Spain 2 of 2 found this interesting Tre Cime, Italy (location) In the past we had good clue about Pinewood Studios production, but it seem to have got rarer in the last 3 year's or so to have them, we never got any even remote clue of any of the new Star Wars production budget I think right ? I would imagine the same for Solo.

Before someone would try something like this, have you ever thought that a movie was bad and been convinced otherwise by arguments ? (and not by re-watching the movies decade later) for example ?

The paid GLobes is probably already included in that 100m+ release budget. 20 million by monday would be 47% of Night at the musuem but Musuem had 2 less days. 75% of Rocky Balboa If it has better leg than the franchise movie sequel that was Rocky Balboa, we could expect for it to finish not so far than Rocky 70m domestic, if it goes to do around 35/65, that would be 200m WW. Some possible reference of dbo/itnl ratio, Echanted was at 37.5/62.5, Sweeney Todd was 35/65, Miserable 33/66, La la land 33/66, Mama Mia 25/75, but some musical end up domestic heavy will see, this feel international appeal title without any particular american appeal to it. That would not be particularly good. Closest recent comparable I could find: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS 2 PRODUCTION COST (79,890) RELEASING COST (137,506) (111.83 million of those for the theatrical release) Break even point was estimated at : 75.3m dbo / 120.5m intl, 195.0m WW Return on investment point was estimated at: 99.0m dbo / 158.4m intl, 257.4m WW for a 15.8% profit margin Greenlight with a : 100.0m dbo / 150.0m intl, 250.0m WW performance in mind GROWN UPS 2 PRODUCTION COST (93,600) 88.9 world theatrical release cost, expecting around 100m total releasing cost. Break even point was estimated at : 88.5m dbo / 69.0m intl, 157.5m WW Return on investment point was estimated at: 125.5m dbo / 98.0m intl, 223.5m WW for a 17.1% profit margin Greenlight with a : 135.0m dbo / 105.0m intl, 240.0m WW performance in mind Probably the type of movie you want to do 250/260m WW from, so it would either need to get a bit above 90m domestic or play better than 33/66 a little bit.

Rogue one Days: 4: 17.6m 5: 17.6m 6: 14.97 TLJ Days 4: 21.556m 5: 20.25m 6: 17.5m rogue one days has a percentage of TLJ 4: 81.6% 5: 87% 6: 85.5% Hard to conclude anything in term of holding better or worst than Rogue One at this point, pretty much "in line with RO hold has of now" status it seem.

Others possible reason, Thor 3 has now an higher per theater average, I guess that theater average is a some ways a better predictor for theater hold when movies are in the same ballpark. Audience composition (is the Thor 3 audience has an audience that will play better during Christmas holiday ? A pick more common for kids to grand parents family context) ? Different concession sales average ? And yes, WB having a new release coming up (and not one necessarily easy to achieve to get theaters time) with father figures to put in, while Disney do not is maybe the simpler actual main reason.

It also inspired itself quite a bit by post WW2 cinematography, Kurosawa works, Three Outlaw Samurai, etc... like it heavily influenced Lucas back in the days, maybe it helped. The bombing opening scene but also those reds soldier way to use swords did feel asian a bit.

This one think that death did was not add awareness to the movie, that is a bit impossible. Now big fans that would go see that movie because of her death but did not saw Awaken in theater ? Is there any chance you would ever go see a Star wars movie in theater you really really probably did for Force Awaken... The Venn diagram of hyper fan of Fisher but does not go see a star wars movie in theater usually but now would because it is a last time is probably rather thin.

Life & Wonder Woman over The Last Knight do feel like a snub (maybe many did not watch the movie or been able to finish it at this point, I do not think I was able to finish a Transformer movie awake after the first and very good first Transformer) or take it for granted by now.

I am not old enough to remember a backlash free Star Wars release.

That using some semantic tricks is seam, hard to imagine in any possible way how Lords of the rings was not a split. Lords of the rings is obviously one story told into 3 movies, they splitted it in 3 part (but was planned to be only 2 movie at some point, then just 1, etc... before deciding to go splitting it in 3). Tolkin book was splitted by the editors in 3 back in the days a bit for similar reason than the movies did it the split, paper was costly that year/more pratical format, bigger commercial potential selling 3 books vs 1. People are so used to movie not telling the story in one go that you could be right, that most split (even if it is announced from the start, we will split this story into 3 movies instead of one) are not considered split, it need additional re-splitting now a day to be considered as such.

Worked well with the Lords of the Rings trilogy, Apes trilogy and the current new Star Wars trilogy, audience are getting use to cliffhanger and not closed ending.

That is a valid point I think, there is no notion of being a last movie that make it an event that will be going on here. Maybe Avengers part 2 if a lot of the cast get officially out will have more of that.

Also (you are right about Jackman and being a musical it was maybe between this and Beauty and the Beast), it seem more divisive but have some percentage of the population really loving it: http://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-greatest-showman/critic-reviews there is a perfect score on MC and 2 big raves, that give you more chance to a nomination (even if you cannot win) to be an hated/loved movie than one that everyone agree about being a 7/10 type, you probably do not need that many supporter to be in the top 5 of that category.

Maybe staff started to leave for the Holidays by now.

400 would be a really big sample size for something like this if it was random (being from non random locations). For a big movie making 10m in preview gross that mean around 1m people. https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm For a population of 1 million To be right 19 out 20 inside a 5% zone you need only 384 people to be pooled. About the same for a population of 100m, passed a population of say 100k, sample size needed does not move really much. People tend to overrate the size of sample size needed (country wide election pool are often made on 1100 people) and give too much value to larger but still really small (less than 1% of the population) non random sample size. In those cinemascore case obviously, not only non random location (for when it could matter, if taste are different by states/rural vs urban/etc...) but opening night is also a big bias specially for franchise.

Sadly if he would have made some 3.6/4.8 * 623.4m type of gross logic of the impact of an A reception instead of A+ for that type of movie according to cinemascore average, he would have predicted 467.55, putting smaller opening weekend into it 467.55 * .9227 = 431.4 That 459m actual result being between those 2.

Right ? for something that we expect would be full of it.

And it was what, at least the third 3D hollywood crazy, 50s, early 80s, and 2008 to 2013 or so, was it the biggest ? I can see the next one to stick and stay someone relevant if it is glassless, does not reduce brightness, no speed issues..... otherwise could go as it went the previous time 3d movie had some peak popularity.