Barnack

Proper 3D has yet to come, there is a inherent issue with the human brain that all system (that I know) have, focusing distance and eye converging distance are not the same, something that does not exist in the real world and that many brain do not like. There is better and worst 3D out here, but proper 3D has yet to come and by quite a lot, if it stay popular and upgrade, people watching 2120's 3D will find ours ridiculous and unwatchable.

Even now that it is Disney telling them to do so ? But yes, fully agree for Avatar 2 to be anything Avatar level close (that would be what doing 4 billion or more when it will get out to compare to Avatar 2.7b in 2009), I think something new has to be there, glassless and better 3D for example and I imagine 3D in a never seen in a mainstream affair level of underwater scenery.

In 2015/2016 yes quite a bit slower I think, we will not see those 35+% annual grow I think. Rules of thumb to know how many year it will take to double something that has composite "interest", 70/annual growth percentage, if you growth 35% a year, you will double every 2 year's or so, 10% every 7 year's or so, 7% will be about 10 year's to double. I did choose a bit over 7 year's to double the China market, thinking a bit below 10% a year (the 2017 growth is said to be around 20% but I think that include adding one time deal service fee and a bit optimistic) was very slow last year (around just 3% I think), was often in the 25-35% before that.

With that 2017 China box office: 1 Wolf Warrior 2 n/a $854,248,869 7/27 That make it somewhat likely to happen in the 2020s, if a movie can often reach 1.5b in China alone by 2025, it would only need a 50/50 oversea-china ratio to reach 3B, no one saw Titanic or ET or many of the bigger movie ever coming either.

That is saying: It's really not a sequel to Sicario other than following the Sicario... It would not surprise me it was a demand of Del Toro, he always talked a bit like if he was the lead.

I know they are much cheaper but does the release that cheap that is cost is not relevant here (say if the China release is just 7m US it is still adding around 200m RMB at the CBO break even point ? Or it is not the distributor that pay the distribution cost when you just get 25% ?

I think I get what you mean slambros because of the hand handling style, but the lighting is much more flat and does seem to have close to the budget and time going to that department of the Lubzeki work's, completely different level of quality here, without even considering the quality of the composition and the movement.

It was one of the biggest franchise of the 2000's (that sold like 70+m book, it is over 85 million by now) too with a 100m marketing budget, someone could almost say just 5.6m in that case.

Thing is 560m is not under 3.0 multiplier it is under 2.55x Star wars is one of the leggiest franchise ever (rewatch, people fearing the fans, people waiting for hole family event), with the release date make a under 2.55 multiplier extremely unlikely. If you look here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&sort=percent&order=DESC&p=.htm No big december openner ever went below 2.6 multiplier, even movie like Exodus Gods and Kings or Point break and it is rare to not reach 3.0. Hard to imagine the worst case scenario being lower than Golden Compass, Point Break or Exodus, I think that realistically the worst reasonable scenario is those 2.75 type of hold, over 600m dbo.

Star wars is such a special property, because except for maybe 40-45 movie a year, 20M is a average to extremely good first weekend including the Thursday preview, that it would be doing in one non holiday weekdays alone and could feel underwhelming.... http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/nonholiday.htm 4 movie did 20m non-holidays mondays (Awaken 2 times) and for the really big star wars number on that list, was not an holiday but so close to Christmas/New year's if that they almost were.

Or a $0 (billion minus a billion) franchise http://deadline.com/2017/08/the-conjuring-trial-warner-bros-james-wan-gerald-brittle-lawsuit-1202157470/

Isn't martini just a made up an invention for us gin drinker to fake class while getting drunk ? Martini is pretty much just that Gin, some put a sent of something else in theirs (like a bit of vermouth tasting ice) but many do not.

Maybe, but that is close to saying that they need to give up being a major studio, sell the world asset and become like Liongates, if you are not doing big budget affair, it will be hard to make the overhead cost of having that giant world infrastructure amortized among your title. Say running a world movie distribution studio cost 150m in a year, if you distribute that cost among an annual movie budget of around 1 billion dollar, it is not so bad, you have a 15% of the production cost overhead, the 100m movie is a 115m one, the 20 million a 23 million and so on. If you have a 400m annual production budget of a slate of 15-20 small movies, now that 150m become a rather big portion of those budget, you have a 37.5% overhead (that difference is higher than non-Disney studio gross profit margin, it is more than eating all of it), the 20m movie become a 27.5m one and much harder to make it work at that price point. I could be wrong, but I have the impression you either do big budget movie every year or you decide to be out of the being a full fledged movie studio game and join the Weinstein/Liongates/others mini major group.

Untitled do sound like the safest of that bunch.

Care would be a strong word, but unknow movie in the IMDB top 250 was an entry door to explore movies filmography of a lot of people I would think and some system show you the IMDB score, RT votes (my flixter app did for example). Now really care, I would imagine that if you care about a particular movie RT/IMDB score you will watch it no matter what making it absolutely useless yes, just a fodder to argument on the Internet because it is such subjective people leach to stuff that has number or letter they can use.

Probably for the same general reasons why he did not direct anything since The Hobbit, he did work quite a lot and too much for a long time, George Lucas type of doing movies you want to see happen without doing the actual part you do not want to do anymore (write, direct, edit), just being the big story guy must be a really fun thing to do.

New market with a very small history since it became a major one. But is there any precedent of a sequel dropping that much from Force Awaken 124m ? Could be a first too, not many movie had that giant marketing push Force Awaken had in China without being a proven concept in China I imagine, Rogue One was not far with 2 popular actor in that market being present in the movie.

There is some price that wait 2 year's for that (or 1?) at least a long time, say they would be doing the top 2015 movies list right now. That would tend to be true, but a couple of things: 1) Main reason, they would dramatically diminish their traffic, I imagine a lot of the traffic is when the movie are new. 2) People movies opinion change a lot over time (didn't like 2001 a space odyssey before, loved it in my last rewatch), we naturally give the most value to our last opinion about a movie, but should we ? Why a particular watch experience be more valuable than others and the latest being the most valuable ? There is some value and merit on how a movie achieved to make you feel on the ride home the first time, even if they needed to be pumped, a large audience into it, etc... they are experience build & made to be consumed that way very often after all. Would be interesting to have both rating, first hot impression and the cooled down one, both mean something, both have values imo.

Everything you say sound a bit more evil with that avatar.

I am sure is ego (and is great grand children bank account) he want for Disney to be has big has possible went he quit, but it is not like he is at the mercy of Trump or would be in any trouble if the deal does not get through, it is not a desperate move by Disney high exec here, the company will still exist at their death if that deal does not come through. It is even more far fetched for the MCU actors, what would they have to gain from any of this, for how long they want to still be doing those movies anyways.... Do not remember that exactly, I imagine I argued it was the low quality of the DCEU (that announced the justice league box office issues) + list of flop outside of it (Pan, Jupiter Ascending, Heart of the Sea, etc...). that was the big issue and not SS and BvS box office ?

If you could find out those figure.... could be interesting, do you remember if you had calculated Snow White, E.T., Sound of Music, Gone with the Wind and the others suspect for biggest initial run ? There is a lot of talk about impossibility to compare era, not fair for anyone post VHS became cheap enough to be popular, but the population growth seem to have made it possible to still make very comparable first release run than the classic, at least in market share they (E.T. Sound of Music, Gone With the Wind, New Hope, Titanic) were very close. Now it is also interesting to compare money (real purchasing power money, not face value money) and not just tickets, logic told us in an imperfect way that if the tickets for Star Wars 7 would have been cheaper they would sold more of them, achieving to make people spend on the deluxe version, not wait on tuesday rebate because they are too excited, also count into the performance of a movie, like the big classic of the golden era that got RoadShow special release with ticket costing twice as much than regular movie.

Always a race for stuff like that, how good they are to mimic vs being detected. Specially here, the possible gain to do something like this is almost nill (Audience score is not a metric many look at) and only a competitor would normally have some interest in it, they did not necessarily inspect a group would put time and money to make it in a complex way (changing IP address and so on). For example, apparently lot of comments about neutral internet was made from zombie hacked Facebook account: https://news.slashdot.org/story/17/05/10/1627257/a-bot-is-flooding-the-fccs-website-with-fake-anti-net-neutrality-comments http://www.zdnet.com/article/a-bot-is-flooding-the-fccs-website-with-fake-anti-net-neutrality-comments/ That is where you could expect it and would care, movie rating online....... how much resource would you want to spent on something like that, specially if it is not sponsorised by a competitor/industry/country but by fans doing it for free....

Like someone else point out, the fact that Star Wars OW is so big, long line, that a lot of people that will see it for sure, will wait for the crazyness to calm down, is maybe an other reason why Star Wars movie tend to have such long legs.