salvador-232

Of the 6 Disney-Pixar animated movies of 2017-2019, 5 have been sequels. I rather have a funny Minion's movie than yet another pretentious Disney Sequel that tries really hard to be emotional but is just bland.(Yes, illumination is very bland too but they are way more funny) Anyway, is clear that there's cultural differences regarding humor here. I have read on this forum people calling Guardians of the Galaxy a "comedy" after all lol.

I mean, Nutcracker and Mary Poppins bombed hard (Openings equivalent to 22 and 13m domestic respectively), but those are unknown properties. And while here 2000 onwards movies are more known, Aladdin is more well known than say Dumbo that had a perfectly fine and good opening. But this is puzzling for me as well, as I said, I doubt it will do that bad.

Presales Update, 17% of the Market Aladdin: 2 days before release: 49 showings for OD | 10.936 seats available | 141 tickets sold. (+39 in the last 3 days). Okay, so Aladdin fell significantly behind of Alita Battle Angel and is now solidly the worst pre-sale I've tracked. Any comp would be terrible but honestly, I just can't see an opening as low as these pre-sales indicate. Besides being a family film, is not the kind of movie you would expect to have presales, and it hasn't had much marketing. It does show, however, that it will do at best a very mediocre result. I checked the other chains and presales are a bit better but still very bad.

You hate your new house way too much. Just accept your new overlords. And how exactly will Disney "cheat" the numbers? They are not the only ones that track their movies.

Oh no, you are right, I got confused. There no way to know weekdays, but it must be over 17m, USD, I will edit the post. BTW, there are only 3 weekdays, the weekend in South America starts on Thursday for BO purposes gods know why. Using the same ratio of last week it could be around 17,1-17,2m USD. It will definitely do 18,5m USD, but if it keeps dropping harder it will stop just around that. But 19m USD is still not dead.

Weekend May 16-19th Endgame Detective Pikachu A dog's journey John Wick 3 Ugly Dolls Endgame led with an estimated 835k USD, and its total cume should be over 17m USD. It is now for sure the most viewed movie of all time in admissions but the press still hasn't reported it. It dropped bit harder than IW despite facing way less competition (IW fell 41% in the face of Deadpool 2 opening with 1,9m usd). Pikachu was strong in second place while A dog's journey and John Wick 3 were very close (The dog overtook Wick at the last minute), both did around 300k USD which is okay for Dog's Journey and fairly good for John Wick.

I read all the spoilers and knew what was coming. They somehow found a way to make it even dumber, simply astonishing.

Presales Update, 17% of the Market Aladin: 5 days before release: 49 showings for OD | 10.936 seats available | 102 tickets sold. __________________________________________________________________ X-Men: Dark Phoenix: 19 days before release: 62 showings for OD | 14.421 seats available | 67 tickets sold Aladin continues to be the worst pre-sale performance I've ever tracked, it is following Alita very closely behind. Again, if it behaves like Alita then it is headed to a poor result but nothing that bad. But if it behaves like literally any other film then we are talking about epic-scale bombing. Using Pikachu as comp, for example, gives 215k USD OW, equivalent to 17m domestic... I don't have any good comps for Dark Phoenix, only CM but that did prove to be very pre-sale heavy. I think I will compare it to Shazam later (though it probably won't be as walk-up friendly)

In Perú It increased on it's second Thursday and I'm fairly confident that Chile will increase as well (Holiday weekend), not like WB bothers to report . Argentina hold is soso though, very weird to see LA behaving so different

Pikachu fell 11,5% on Saturday in line with corpse prediction but was very clearly beaten by Confidence Man JP

It definitely will, but after week 8 or so it will do under 100k USD and by week 10 it will stay in a single screen in the capital or something like that. But there isn't any artificial limit to its potential gross outside competition, if it stayed flat, it would hold all of its screens for example.

As long as it remains profitable. Infinity War lasted 16 weeks (10 in wide release and 7 doing non trivial money). Coco for example lasted 6 months.

No, low 16m. But will hit it for sure after the weekend

Chilean presales are bad, like, worst on (my very limited) record bad, worse than Alita Battle Angel bad. And God knows how much fun I made of Alita for doing so badly in Latin America.

If it follows IW it would still hit it with relative ease, but that is unlikely given it faces way more competition. But it does have room for more error.

Aladdin presales, 6 days before release, 17% of the market. 49 showings for OD | 10936 seats available | 76 tickets sold My god, this thing is actually trailing fucking Alita Battle Angel in presales, ALITA. Granted, is a family film, not bound to be pre-sale heavy, but Alita presales were so awful that I thought I would never use them for comps... Now, if it behaves like Alita, is not going to be that bad. It would still be a bomb given the brand, but likely would still manage around 500k USD OW or more given ts family nature. If it behaves like literally any other comp tough, Solo would look like a little Molotov bomb in comparison.

I'm not going to do last weekend actuals since the only things doing relevant numbers outside Endgame are WB releases that don't get reported. But let's talk about Endgame: Chile 1 4 $1,465,550 -63.7% - - - $15,871,727 It became the highest grossing release ever both in local currency and USD, the first movie ever to get past 15m USD and due to Argentina's devaluation, Chile will become its third largest market in Latin America (despite being behind Colombia, Perú, Argentina and Central America in admissions). On the bad news: This is literally one of the worst holds I've ever seen for a movie still in wide release. It got its fair share of showtimes cuts to make room for Pikachu but it was still the widest release. On another hand, it's hardly surprising considering that IW fell 56% on its third weekend facing zero competition (The thing is that restrictions on discounts were lifted, and the given the movie frontloadeness and very high average ticket price, the admission bump was nowhere close to compensating the $ loss unlike most major movies). But the 20m dream is more than dead and 19m is in danger too. The bad news doesn't end here. It still hasn't beaten Infinity War in admissions, otherwise, the press would have reported it. I waited all week for the announcement but it didn't happen. Considering that it's gross at the end of last weekend already implies a number close to 2,3m admissions (record by IW must be around 2,35 counting independent-arthouse system) the implication is that these weekdays have been awful. BTW: I couldn't get numbers for Pikachu but I stand by my 1m USD estimate given my theatre checks over the weekend. Now, on to this weekend: Endgame still on top but could be overtaken by Pikachu on weekend proper if the holds are as bad as it seems. Very good debut for John Wick 3.

You guys basically danced conga around DP numbers when your first impressions: Were basically spot on.

Definitely playing like a kids movie in South America, 147% Saturday increase in Argentina. It also continues to do very well in Chile, a pitty WB never reports grosses from here.

How do you know is flopping in Brazil? Because it opened below Endgame? EG did 16m last weekend...

They could let him and simply not track it or just track it domestically. Disney themselves have done re releases OS and have not updated the movie WW gross (eg Coco anniversary re release in Mexico)

South American openings are slightly above Shazam but is being held back by the lack of screens (it has less than half of Endgame) In Chile, the showtimes are more even. In any case, this kind of movie will play better on the proper weekend (Saturday-Sunday). Still waiting for Perú numbers. BTW, Shazam did fairly well in South America until it was killed by Endgame (save for Argentina, but again, Argentina doesn't like Super Hero stuff that much)

Some actuals from Last Weekend (May 2-5) TW LW Movie Studio Weekend Gross Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week - 1 Avengers: Endgame Disney $4,040,203 -37.9% n/a - n/a $13,541,793 2 - 2 Dumbo (2019) Disney $110,731 -22.2% n/a - n/a $2,831,868 6 - N Gloria Bell Sony $30,201 - 22 - $1,373 $30,201 1 - 3 Captain Marvel Disney $19,426 -54.9% n/a - n/a $7,232,499 9 - 4 Five Feet Apart Muchos $1,607 -27.1% n/a -2 n/a $901,528 7 Awesome hold for Endgame, with an extremely impressive cume of 13,5m USD. With Infinity War legs from here on it would end with 19,7m USD. Considering it faces more competition I think it will end a bit short of that. The rest is very negligible outside of Dumbo that was doing impressive numbers given that it had very little showtimes

Chile's presales 37% above Shazam. Targeting 1m USD opening (equivalent to 79-80m domestic )

Detective Pikachu Presales | 2 days before release | 17% of the Market 59 showtimes for OD | 12.942 seats available | 851 tickets sold Very good presales, 37% ahead of Shazam. Taking into account the strong pre-sales for the rest of the weekend, I think this points towards a 1m USD OW (roughly equivalent with 80m domestic). Is possible for it to go higher, but depends on how many showtimes it gets.