Cooper Legion

Ooooooooh boy

5th 2023 movie I guess

AM3 after CM2 pretty much looks up Feb 2023 for it, they won’t have it as a 6th MCU movie in 2022 with Avatar in Dec. Should be AM3 Feb 2023, Gotg3 May 2023, FF July 2023

I guess Shang-Chi could depending on lingering covid impact, if China hates it. Eternals nah, SM3 no frikkin way, DS2 no, Thor4 no, BP2 no, CM2 no. First opportunities would be Blade, AM3, or Fantastic Four in 2023, but unless global BO overall is down (possible) I think all 3 would make it easily with a combination of ATP growth, market expansion, and growth in the MCU overall.

Agreed, thus “imo.” I wish Chadwick had made his feelings on the matter clear, but for me having the character die because the actor did feels like it gives it more gravity while recasting makes him feel replaceable.

Occam’s Razor: she misspoke or was misinformed However, tbh, there’s plenty of room in early September. It’s 2 months after BP2, 2 months before CM2, no big competition issues.

FWIW Disney market cap was pretty stable around 160B for 2016-2018, whereas AT&T hovered in the 200-250B range. Disney being bigger is a recent development that see,s related to Wall Street liking what they see from Disney’s DTC pivot.

Disney has a bigger market cap after the recent stock surge, but AT&T had a larger market cap as recently as August. They’re in approximately the same size tier by that metric.

T’challa won’t appear in BP3 or any future movies either. You need an explanation that permanently removes him — probably death.

It only makes sense that this would be the biggest budgeted DC movie.

Why make 350M in theatrical rev + healthy home and PVOD when instead you could make almost no home&PVOD, like 100M theatrical rev, and make a play for subs on your single market streaming platform

I have really been wondering about marketing factor as well, but being not in China I can’t comment.

ATM I’m personally thinking 24-32 or so. Gavin seems more bullish though. Wait to pirate could be a factor, hard to tell since the situation is pretty unorecendented. Local competition is perhaps a small factor, but The Rescue doesn’t look huge from (nonfaked) PS — plenty of room for WW to open at 80M or something with Rescue at the size it is if hype was there. Overall, what I’d say is just this: it is not uncommon for sequels to open less and finish less than their predecessors, in this or any other market, especially if that predecessor had average reception in the market. Assumptions that it would grow because of market growth were a bit off because HW really hasn't grown that much here since 2017, which was already the tail end of the explosive expansion. And assumptions it would grow because it’s a CBM sequel and those buck usual sequel trends were a bit off because it’s the first DCEU sequel, and that trend is observed only for MCU sequels so far, likely owing to the success of their teamup events.

WW84 has been following Shazam pretty closely for a couple days now, but I think it will have a weaker D-0. OD O/U 50 looks like a real question for now

Less than one week

Pretty weird to do 30 in Jan then just 50 in Feb+March. Gotta figure the former will come down or the latter will come up.

FFH *is* bad, but it sure didn’t bomb bad.

2 weeks from now I expect no Roku and far more theater closures. This release plan was mind bogglingly bad from the start. June was just sitting there. Woulda been great.

Not recasting feels more respectful imo. I think Winston Duke is the most natural choice for Black Panther at this point, but they have some other solid options.

Those sales seem relatively good, but I do wonder how many will be cancelled due to further lockdowns in the next two weeks.

Skadoosh, my midrange exactly agreed with Corpse”s forecast 2 days early 😈 Of course it will be a kind of unprecedented and volatile weekend, with the better giveaway item than last two, less supply, and the baseline numbers much less. So maybe it will have insanely low PSm and just do 800 or something.

Does this include private watch parties, doesn’t include, or not sure?

Yeah, this might bomb as bad as FFH. Or even as bad its sequel will?

I can report for @Eric Karga. 100% seats sold in greater philly area (0/0). State renters lockdown through at least end of year.

Those are the 2017 movie, not 2020 sequel. Got a rerelease in advance.