Cooper Legion
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Box Office Theory's Most Anticipated Films
Cooper Legion replied to AniNate's topic in The Speakeasy
)Frozen 2 Black Widow Knives Out WW84 Jumanji Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Onward Mulan Charlie’s Angels 10) Terminator -
This is really too far away to be getting into numbers much, but I ended up getting into an argument on reddit about it (I know, I know — had some time to kill) and figured I might as well post the gist of it here as well. Black Panther was a superhero movie that broke out beyond all expectations, sold about 70M tickets, and placed #3 DOM. Spider-Man was a superhero movie that broke out beyond all expectations, sold about 70M tickets, and got to #5 DOM. The sequel came out 2 years later, dropped 13.5% adjusted, and got to #8 DOM. The Dark Knight was a superhero movie that broke out beyond all expectations, sold about 70M tickets, and got to #2 DOM. The sequel came out 4 years later, dropped 22.5% adjusted, and got to #7 DOM. The Avengers was a superhero movie that broke out beyond all expectations, sold about 70M tickets, and got to #3 DOM. The sequel came out 3 years later, dropped 30.5% adjusted, and got to #7 DOM. So, *preliminarily,* I think it’s about right to expect BP to finish 12th-7th or so DOM and drop maybe 20-35% adjusted. The former will probably suggest about 550-650ish, assuming that 2020, 2021, 2022 don’t place too many new movies up there. Using around 10-12% ticket price inflation over 4 years (pretty historically well supported, though who knows) the latter would suggest around 500-630.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
More details from that article for Joker: And Gemini Man Pretty close to BOP’s 27. -
SUR(VI)VOR Ep. 6: Hustle Through The Heist!
Cooper Legion replied to SLAM!'s topic in Box Office Survivor
Well, that happened. Finally got the perfect team name 😈 SLAM!, I was curious whether you were looking for the Sunday cume for Downton Abbey (including the 2.2M sneaks from last week) or just the money made this weekend without that 2.2M. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Deadline with: Downton 23-25 Rambo 23-25 Ad Astra mid-high teens Hustlers 18 It 17 https://deadline.com/2019/09/will-the-downton-abbey-gang-take-out-rambo-at-the-b-o-weekend-preview-1202738117/ -
I'm also an outrageously remake friendly person, as far as the general concept goes. DO NOT REMAKE THE PRINCESS BRIDE
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Easily over JW3. Photo finish with Us maybe.
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Yeah, out of options: 2+3 hours 2+2 hours 2+2+2 hours It’s easy to see that 2+3 is the least moneygrubbing, so some props to WB for that creatively.
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Even comparing weekday to weekday, the weekly drop is 59%, bit on the steep side. DOM top 200 looks pretty likely to me but it could miss if next weekend’s drop is large.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Nice research. Pretty safe to say that all 3 won’t beat 33M, lol. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
It would be incredible to set a new record for 5th place weekend gross, but I think that’s out of reach. Maybe we can set a new record for 3rd highest opener of a weekend? No clue what that would even be at present. -
I mean, that was the point, right? Leverage their whole warchest upfront to try to build an immediate subscriber base.
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SUR(VI)VOR Ep. 6: Hustle Through The Heist!
Cooper Legion replied to SLAM!'s topic in Box Office Survivor
For shame JJ, such uncharitable assumptions . I simply enjoy the thrill of battle... err, that is to say, predictions. I’ll be making private predictions for the immunity challenge anyway to test my skills, but with nothing on the line it won’t bring the same rush. -
SUR(VI)VOR Ep. 6: Hustle Through The Heist!
Cooper Legion replied to SLAM!'s topic in Box Office Survivor
Also, I’m barred from participating in the Tuesday Immunity Challenge, correct? If I, in theory, wanted to give up my regular immunity to participate, would that be allowed? (I can't think of much reals to do that, I’m just a thorough person). -
SUR(VI)VOR Ep. 6: Hustle Through The Heist!
Cooper Legion replied to SLAM!'s topic in Box Office Survivor
Ne Zha has delivered me from evil, hail China -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah, that’s a pretty important note XD I wish BOM would put a * or something on OWs that weren’t the first 3 days... -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
HP was a long time ago. The only opening below 100M adjusted was HBP at 95M. And that was still a top 25 OW, which is good for 140+ nowadays (again, a stark example of OWs growing faster than simple yearly ATP). -
No. It really goes to show how detached awards can be from quality. See? Isn’t this fun? We can be here all day.