Cooper Legion

2.84 was a typo of 2.784. First run+special edition before the additional 4-5M trickled in after.

Could be going for more than 5x multi from True Tues, nice. Not sure how’s much that would be related to WOM or just the unprecedented calendar. Maybe they’ll release Spidey 4 on Tues July 2, 2024, and we’ll just have a great comp for it 😛

After a 75M OW, guess the derived multiplier must be 4x 😉

I like how your explanation for it being a bad summer BO is literally the main reasons that it’s not actually a bad summer BO

Sun CGV PS 228, bit of a larger drop from Sat than Endgame or CM. +- 1M I guess as ratio should improve a bit

I’ve gotten sick of a lot of the EG vs Ava stuff, but there’s a pretty good argument that it’s the greatest achievement in the history of franchise BO. 23B in 23 movies in 11 years is some wild shit.

Deadline’s internal multipliers for holdovers all look kind of wack, heads up. Lot of ~3 or above. But even with an optimistic -20% Sun, to get 3x IM takes a +11% Sat. It’s not at all easy to get a x3 IM with this calendar configuration.

And 446 at 16:20. End of day for me, I feel pretty confident in ~566 for final CGV, mid 1.2s — just like the PS indicated 😛

Guess we need to overreact in the other direction now. RIP CW worldwide.

He’s back FFH confirmed big movie after all

The key to my sense of humor is that my jokes are usually 50% joke, 50% serious. Often something which I think is unlikely, but a possibility underrated by the conventional wisdom (of course, even getting an accurate read on the conventional wisdom can be... pretty tricky — especially when some inconsiderate hooligans are being humorous in too many of their posts). I do have some mild concerns about F2 and J3 right before TROS, but I think there’s a lot more money to go around at Christmas. My serious expectations are maybe +- 600 for TLK, mid 600s TROS, low 500s F2 — but if history tells me anything, it’s that my serious expectations’ 90% confidence intervals should be +-50% or so. The best “predictive” tool is a little patience.

Too bad your bet wasn’t for WW

I completely believe it. Usually if you don’t see the last .5% of a movie it doesn’t matter, but it’s fine if that last .5% does matter.

What if the only other movie to pass 600 this year is Frozen

How could you not be with FFH flopping it’s way to 180 TLK is doing better presales than I thought it would, but still in the waiting period.

12:20 356k CGV A pretty monstrous pace, added 51k=16.7% since 9:20. Frankly it’s a bit too big for me to love the CM comp, and Endgame was too PS loaded for me to love that comp either. But seems like 550-600k final CGV shouldn’t be much of a stretch, and numbers like that could even lead to a 1.3-1.4 day. I’m still relatively new at this, so take that with a pinch of salt and please don’t even imagine complaining if it comes in 1.29 or whatever. Numbers have been edited because I apparently really suck at the math today 😕

420+680=1.1 would have been great. 340+760=1.1 is also great, just makes you wonder a bit at what’s up domestically compared to other markets.

The OS numbers and audience score tell an incredible story (more comfortable invoking that now that it’s been seen by over $100M worth of people and has 20k+ reviews).The DOM OW is just... fine. Normal legs seem like they get to an increase over SMH, but a pretty paltry one — and it’s not like SMH was doing huge number to begin with like SM1, TA, WW, BP. I wonder if it’ll actually end up having a leggier style run (and then taking more damage from TLK than I thought).

The post credits scenes are a part of the movie. If you decide not to watch all of the movie and some earlier parts of it make less sense as a result, that doesn’t seem too surprising.

Corpse: Weekend Forecast (07/06-07)01 (01) ¥721,000,000 ($6.7 million), -18%, ¥8,550,000,000 ($78.9 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK5 02 (02) ¥405,000,000 ($3.8 million), -42%, ¥1,865,000,000 ($17.3 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) WK203 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), The Diner (Warner Bros.) NEW 04 (03) ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), -36%, ¥1,245,000,000 ($11.4 million), The Fable (Toho) WK3 05 (06) ¥x92,000,000 ($850,000), +20%, ¥765,000,000 ($7.2 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK506 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($695,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), The Documentary of Nogizaka46 - II (Toho Video Division) NEW 07 (04) ¥x69,000,000 ($640,000), -45%, ¥240,000,000 ($2.2 million), Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Van./Land of Ice Cream (Tokyo Theaters) WK208 (---) ¥x65,000,000 ($600,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($925,000), Free! Road to the World - The Dream (Shochiku) NEW 09 (05) ¥x40,000,000 ($370,000), -48%, ¥2,710,000,000 ($25.1 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK6 10 (11) ¥x38,000,000 ($350,000), -20%, ¥380,000,000 ($3.5 million), Rascal Does Not Dream of a Dreaming Girl (Aniplex) WK4Nothing really notable going on this weekend, besides Aladdin repeating atop the box-office for a fifth-consecutive weekend and possibly making a play at the Biggest Fifth Weekend Top 5 list. Spider-Man: Far From Home should have a decent hold, and since its opening weekend was so impressive last week, its forecast second weekend above would only be off just 10% from its predecessor's opening weekend. This weekend also sort of serves as the calm before the storm that the summer box-office season brings when it begins next weekend. Mid-July through mid/late-August are the strongest six-weeks at the Japanese box-office, and this year's offerings give moviegoers plenty of options and looks to keep the box-office on fire for quite a while longer.

If not for FFH, Aladdin would be enjoying a nice 7th weekend increase 9:20 CGV is 305, vs the 302 I was expecting to hit. 1.3+ looks very possible. I’ll update every so often here as the new numbers come in. Bad math, still expecting mid 1.2s for now.

I bet you could easily measure how likely it looks to pass by what % of posts in the last 10 pages are from... certain... users.

Tensions heating up huh? Would this mean killing FFH’s run right in the middle?

CGV Sat PS 279k. Bodes for a 1.2-1.3 day imo, probably lower end of that range.

Cinemascore’s threshold for doing a survey and releasing it publicly is opening in 1500 theaters. What if cinemascore has some automatic system which flagged it as below that because the Tues true midnights were ~1000 theaters?