Cooper Legion
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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
Cooper Legion replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
After a 75M OW, guess the derived multiplier must be 4x 😉 -
Sun CGV PS 228, bit of a larger drop from Sat than Endgame or CM. +- 1M I guess as ratio should improve a bit
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And 446 at 16:20. End of day for me, I feel pretty confident in ~566 for final CGV, mid 1.2s — just like the PS indicated 😛
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
The key to my sense of humor is that my jokes are usually 50% joke, 50% serious. Often something which I think is unlikely, but a possibility underrated by the conventional wisdom (of course, even getting an accurate read on the conventional wisdom can be... pretty tricky — especially when some inconsiderate hooligans are being humorous in too many of their posts). I do have some mild concerns about F2 and J3 right before TROS, but I think there’s a lot more money to go around at Christmas. My serious expectations are maybe +- 600 for TLK, mid 600s TROS, low 500s F2 — but if history tells me anything, it’s that my serious expectations’ 90% confidence intervals should be +-50% or so. The best “predictive” tool is a little patience. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
What if the only other movie to pass 600 this year is Frozen -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
How could you not be with FFH flopping it’s way to 180 TLK is doing better presales than I thought it would, but still in the waiting period. -
12:20 356k CGV A pretty monstrous pace, added 51k=16.7% since 9:20. Frankly it’s a bit too big for me to love the CM comp, and Endgame was too PS loaded for me to love that comp either. But seems like 550-600k final CGV shouldn’t be much of a stretch, and numbers like that could even lead to a 1.3-1.4 day. I’m still relatively new at this, so take that with a pinch of salt and please don’t even imagine complaining if it comes in 1.29 or whatever. Numbers have been edited because I apparently really suck at the math today 😕
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The OS numbers and audience score tell an incredible story (more comfortable invoking that now that it’s been seen by over $100M worth of people and has 20k+ reviews).The DOM OW is just... fine. Normal legs seem like they get to an increase over SMH, but a pretty paltry one — and it’s not like SMH was doing huge number to begin with like SM1, TA, WW, BP. I wonder if it’ll actually end up having a leggier style run (and then taking more damage from TLK than I thought).
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Corpse: Weekend Forecast (07/06-07)01 (01) ¥721,000,000 ($6.7 million), -18%, ¥8,550,000,000 ($78.9 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK5 02 (02) ¥405,000,000 ($3.8 million), -42%, ¥1,865,000,000 ($17.3 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) WK203 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), The Diner (Warner Bros.) NEW 04 (03) ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), -36%, ¥1,245,000,000 ($11.4 million), The Fable (Toho) WK3 05 (06) ¥x92,000,000 ($850,000), +20%, ¥765,000,000 ($7.2 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK506 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($695,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), The Documentary of Nogizaka46 - II (Toho Video Division) NEW 07 (04) ¥x69,000,000 ($640,000), -45%, ¥240,000,000 ($2.2 million), Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Van./Land of Ice Cream (Tokyo Theaters) WK208 (---) ¥x65,000,000 ($600,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($925,000), Free! Road to the World - The Dream (Shochiku) NEW 09 (05) ¥x40,000,000 ($370,000), -48%, ¥2,710,000,000 ($25.1 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK6 10 (11) ¥x38,000,000 ($350,000), -20%, ¥380,000,000 ($3.5 million), Rascal Does Not Dream of a Dreaming Girl (Aniplex) WK4Nothing really notable going on this weekend, besides Aladdin repeating atop the box-office for a fifth-consecutive weekend and possibly making a play at the Biggest Fifth Weekend Top 5 list. Spider-Man: Far From Home should have a decent hold, and since its opening weekend was so impressive last week, its forecast second weekend above would only be off just 10% from its predecessor's opening weekend. This weekend also sort of serves as the calm before the storm that the summer box-office season brings when it begins next weekend. Mid-July through mid/late-August are the strongest six-weeks at the Japanese box-office, and this year's offerings give moviegoers plenty of options and looks to keep the box-office on fire for quite a while longer.
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If not for FFH, Aladdin would be enjoying a nice 7th weekend increase 9:20 CGV is 305, vs the 302 I was expecting to hit. 1.3+ looks very possible. I’ll update every so often here as the new numbers come in. Bad math, still expecting mid 1.2s for now.
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CGV Sat PS 279k. Bodes for a 1.2-1.3 day imo, probably lower end of that range.