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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    I guess a counterpoint is that there are only 3 movies in the 1.5-2B range, whereas there were a bunch more in 500-1B in 2009. So maybe we should focus on 1.5B becoming common first 😛
  2. Cooper Legion
    I think we will get a lot of 2B the next decade, but mostly concentrated in the 2024-2029 area, few in 2019-2024. That’s how the Avatar and 1B comparison goes, and also makes basic sense with the non-linear growth of markets, prices, etc.
  3. Cooper Legion
    800 requires global catastrophe. TFA just a couple surprisingly nice holds soon.
  4. Cooper Legion
    Yup, should be just O/U 2.5. Basically on the expected track still.
  5. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, it’s definitely still possible. I don’t expect to be saying that 7 days from now, but the multiplier required from these last days still isn’t that implausible as late legs.
  6. Cooper Legion
    Yes. Answer won’t change until the weekend is known.
  7. Cooper Legion
    At least 72 or so imo
  8. Cooper Legion
    I think the weekend will be 74+. How deluded am I? Tune in in 4 days to find out.
  9. Cooper Legion
    Pretty meh Wed too. Hopefully we’re just seeing the runtime shift demand from weekdays to weekends now that the demand Frenzy has cooled off, rather than initial signs of a big dropoff. Yesterday: Today: CW 653+200.5*1.02=858M IM3 653+200.5*1.18=890M IW 653++200.5*1.28=910M AoU 653+200.5*1.27=908M TA 653+200.5*1.65=984M Starting to look like IM3 might be more where it lands than IW/AoU, though I hope not.
  10. Cooper Legion
    Would be around 2.5M 3-day, 4M cume. Maybe a bit less, not sure of ATP.
  11. Cooper Legion
    You guys are a funny market 😛
  12. Cooper Legion
    Eyyy, poster. Hopefully this means an Avatar one is in the pipe.
  13. Cooper Legion
    This would be bad for the BO, significantly reduces chance of a Labor Day reexpansion. Although with the way it’s been playing in IMAX wouldn’t be surprised if Disney and IMAX were happy to return it to those for Labor Day even with digital release available.
  14. Cooper Legion
    17 Pt 5/8/19 (End of 2nd Wed) 1 61.5% Avengers: Endgame 2 14.7% Detective Pikachu 3 3.6% Maharshi 4 3.3% Longshot 5 2.7% The Intruder Strangely good hood for Endgame. Pikachu at less than 1/4 Endgame is a bit less than I thought, but doesn’t seem alarming.
  15. Cooper Legion
    We can trade fun stories about Endgame in 2035
  16. Cooper Legion
    Ordinal 😛
  17. Cooper Legion
    I swear I thought you were talking about Detective Pikachu until halfway through that paragraph.
  18. Cooper Legion
    It’s more than 100% above 3rd place, what a freaking gap. Record might stand for a long long time 🔥
  19. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, in the end it’s like... 250 vs 350 is a huge deal. 85 vs 950 is just some extra icing.
  20. Cooper Legion
    There’s no crumbling narrative to reverse on though. There’s a “soft Tues” narrative that will never be reversed because it’s just observably true and doesn’t necessarily say anything about Wed or the wknd.
  21. Cooper Legion
    Oh come now. Is Endgame is uncharted waters? Yes, indubitably. But is breaking the OW record by 38% so different from breaking it by 20% that we can’t get any useful predictions out of carefully comparing runs? No.
  22. Cooper Legion
    It’s just odd to chose a low end figure that can’t actually happen. Like you could say “it’s still early, we don’t know how it will go, could finish as low as 700 or as high as 1.1” but that isn’t really true. There’s a happy medium between not portraying things as less uncertain than they are while also not portraying them as more uncertain than they are
  23. Cooper Legion
    There was a slight arithmetic error earlier, now corrected. I’d mostly ignore the lowest and highest, should probably do somewhere between IM3 and a bit above AoU.
  24. Cooper Legion
    So, I’m generally a fan of not giving excessively narrow ranges early in a run, but excessively broad ranges aren’t good either. This isn’t possible outside of a meteor or other huge external shock.
  25. Cooper Legion
    If ER was not trash we’d be talking about the first movie to hit 200M in 3 different markets
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