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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    Agree with POTUS’s mid 70s final PS for now. Projecting that to OW is a bit tricky without many clues to reception yet and International Women’s day on the OD, but I’m thinking about 550-700¥, ~85-100$
  2. Cooper Legion
    Well, 17:30 has arrived, and the gentle embrace of nothingness beckons me. Very consistent .4/hr for past 7.5 hours. Will guess twice the 14-17:30 period again to get to 21.2, but doubt I get nearly as lucky this time 😛 Shouldn’t end much lower than POTUS’s 20.5 though, good estimate from him and good day for CM. Tomorrow I’ll set up a proper spreadsheet.
  3. Cooper Legion
    I think multiplying off the 3-day makes more sense, but I don’t think we need D-17 and surrounding days in the mix anymore. That’s right when external factors had the biggest impact, pretty old now, and it’s skewing the data a fair bit imo. Maybe use a rolling last 7 days or so instead? I mean, I can compute that today since we just had a full week finish, looks like BP did 99k and CM about 66.6k, for 67%. That would give 134 applied to the 3-day, which is already fine but I expect the ratio to rise more especially after today’s finish.
  4. Cooper Legion
    The premise is undeniably accurate, but an alternate conclusion is possible: The country is very unpredictable so dream for the stars with your BO predictions.
  5. Cooper Legion
    Last two hours +1.7k and +1.7k. Another would bring day to 17.2, very close to Panther. Edit: Only got to 15.7k, which is still an excellent 83% of BP. Makes sense that the last hour of Sat and last hour of Sun would be pretty close, since both should be fairly dead,
  6. Cooper Legion
    The whole point of my excessive records for CM is practice for Endgame
  7. Cooper Legion
    Then we’ve got 3 hours to go still now, 1 hr later... and we’re already up to 13.8k, blowing past my goal! Might stay flat or go down in the last 3 hours, in theory, with more people being asleep late night Sun than Sat.
  8. Cooper Legion
    Okay, so, I want to begin with several caveats: 1) as mentioned before weekend vs weekday differences are sure to exist, and I haven’t hourly tracked a weekday before 2) it’s very early in the day, not even noon 3) 1 hour is a small sample size That said, 10-11 is when things started to get up to speed yesterday. And we just had such a surprisingly (to me) big hourly add that I feel compelled to comment. Between 10 and 11 was +.435. If it falls back to +.4 an hour for the next bit would be at about 16.8 14:00, 18.2 17:30, and then adding even just 1.5x that period would get to 20.3 for almost 6 added on the day. Will be updating half-hourly with commentary as to whether we still seem on that track or things slowing down. 14:00 commentary: Okay, 4 hours chugging along is starting to be a healthier sample. Average of .4/hr, but think it will pick up. Now aiming for ~18.4 17:30, 20.8-22ish full day. 17:00 interesting slowdown in the late afternoon here, .48 in the last 3 updates.
  9. Cooper Legion
    @CoolEric258, wondering when the cutoff is for the fandango days. Midnight Eastern? Midnight Pacific? Guessing Eastern unless you correct. I’ve been wanting to see it at least double today, based on BP and HTTYD doing so. That would take 13.4k tickets or so. Looks like we’re at 12.1k with 3 hours to go, which seems pretty much on track to me.
  10. Cooper Legion
    When did BP get to #1?
  11. Cooper Legion
    I knew there was going to be a weekend vs weekday morning difference, but it's been coming in much bigger than I realized. Doubt the hourly patterns from Sat and Sun will be too applicable today, but today will hopefully be more applicable to Tues, Wed, maybe Thurs. As an aside, I absolutely love the live wealth of data here (even if it probably consumes allows for too much of my day to be consumed).
  12. Cooper Legion
    Does anyone in the US actually care about International Women’s Day? I got the sense that it was pretty much a non-event but could have a bigger impact in some other countries where there’s actual full or half days off work.
  13. Cooper Legion
    Amusingly that means GotG2 had a 3.3 preview:OD ration and a 3.3 pure Friday:pure FSS ratio.
  14. Cooper Legion
    I regard things roughly Fandango>Wang>Porthos>Movietickets in terms of usefulness (though more independent sources of data is always better). Fandango and Wang have concrete numbers and national scope, Porthos very detailed but intrinsic regional limitations, Movietickets while national only displays % and is simply less used.
  15. Cooper Legion
    I would rather have only the data from next 3 days than all the data from the past 6 months to the present when trying to predict preview/OW #s. Right now I’d go 20, but can easily imagine moving my guess as much as +-4 by Wednesday night.
  16. Cooper Legion
    Down by 540M sounds really bad until that you realize that 480M of it came from that year’s early MCU release, which got pushed back 3 weeks.
  17. Cooper Legion
    Should the 2D and 3D here be reversed? Seems whack.
  18. Cooper Legion
    Has increased from 63% of IW to 72% in Muzdt data. Hong Kong ER looks very similar to IW’s, 15M+ possible?
  19. Cooper Legion
    Those 2 are fine, not Spiderverse tier though. Only about 5 days til big business returns to theaters, getting hyped.
  20. Cooper Legion
  21. Cooper Legion
    Okay, off to sleep now. Yesterday added .52 from 14:00 to 17:30 to get to 9.96, then 2x that to get to 11. Today is .78 same time period, adds double again would be 14.45. See how close when I wake up.
  22. Cooper Legion
    UK gross more predictable based on DOM than a lot of markets. Always 1/10-1/7th, back to Avengers 2012. Generally UK % is smaller on the bigger movies DOM. Personally expecting 400-550 DOM ->45-60 or so UK. Happy for a Uk expert to chime in as support or disagreement though.
  23. Cooper Legion
    Been keeping track for my own use, figure I might as well post here for posterity. Will keep updated with edits, but not after 17:00 or so due to my time zone.
  24. Cooper Legion
    This is a very crude calculation, but just for kicks 720/467*14.1 would give 21.7M previews as the linear preview extrapolation (editor’s note: linear extrapolation of week before data is dangerous). That’s roughly consistent with the story from other comps, bit on the high side.
  25. Cooper Legion
    Early afternoon was pretty similar to yesterday, but picked up some last hour. I think mid 14s, right about 30%
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