jedijake

I may be presumptuous, but if it is going to pull in $12 million in previews, a $120 million 3-day OW is not out of the question. BatB-like multi would give it $128 million Aladdin-like multi would give it $156 million (not happening of course) LK-like multi gives it $100 million

How front loaded should we expect TLM to be on OW?

The fact that Hallie completely nailed it and is phenomenal is probably the best thing the movie could hope for. The fact that nothing is absolutely dreadful (most people don't care that much about pacing) and that McCarthy and Diggs pleasantly surprised are bonuses. Most people want to see Ariel and apparently this Ariel is outstanding.

Those TLM comps! I know it's hard to find a perfect comp, but still....😲

It'll soar past $300 million. The question is whether it will make more than Aladdin. I think it has a good shot. And a critic should never say a movie is unnecessary or nobody asked for it. That just means they had their minds made up years ago when the movie was announced and are not criticizing the movie for the movie's sake but for their own interests. Just as that would dismiss someone from being an impartial juror, it should dismiss someone from being an impartial movie critic.

So, is TLM selling 60 tickets per day in Philly good?

Am I the only one who thinks that Sebastian really looks good and kinda cute for a crustacean? I usually just like them on my plate with cajun seasoning and melted butter but he actually looks great.

That was over a week ago. TLM is looking to bring in at least $10 million in preview, probably closer to $12 or even $13 million. It's not going to pull in just 5-6X the previews.

I'm much more curious as to why Black Adam and John Wyck 4 are being used as comps for TLM.

There really isn't much negativity surrounding the marketing at all. You pretty much have two areas of negativity. One is the backlash over the race of the lead. That is bunk and has been written off as pure racism. The other is "fatigue" over remakes. That is also bunk and has absolutely no bearing on ticket sales as those who want to see it will see it any way. The so-called fatigue comes from those who hated these movies from the getgo and were never going to see this. Other than that, there really isn't much backlash. Add to that the strong pre-sales and this movie will be very successful.

Less than $300 million domestic for GOTG3 is very possible or even likely!?!?!

Oops wrong thread.

Wow-very well said. That covers all the points that I have been thinking about between the attitude toward Disney and the opportunity for an elevated African-American audience. I will add this to the mix. Aladdin had a lot of specific negativity going into the movie due to a horrible reaction to the visuals of the movie trailers themselves. TLM hasn't quite had that. So I wonder if/how that difference will play out. The reactions to Hallie herself have been extremely positive.

I'd say it looks more like a $12 or $13 million Thursday preview for TLM.

The question is whether it can pull similar domestic/international ratios as Aladdin AND if it can do domestic numbers similar to Aladdin.

Robbie would be over the top casting. She's in everything. What's next? Brad Pitt or Leonardio DiCaprio as Dr. Doom? And all of them being white so far seems suss. Right now, I only believe Driver's role.

About half of Aladdin and 76% of BatB's original release. Thing is that TLM's success cannot be measured by its original theatrical release. The character(s) became and remained popular afterwards, almost like a "cult" following and has stood the test of time as the original Disney renaissance film that started it all.

Watching to see whether SMB hits $600 million will at least add some needed excitement to the box office world. I'd say it is going to be close and may be a long drawn out process.

I only just now delved into this post and article (was posted when I was recovering from hernia surgery). It would seem as though WB wants to take the same approach with HP as Disney is taking with both SW and the MCU which is to develop a wide-spanning set of TV series and perhaps/likely movies as well. So maybe they WILL get into stories in the Hogwarts Legacy era and stories of other wizarding schools. Maybe even a founding of Hogwarts. Seems they want to launch it with familiarity first.

True, and TLM arguably has had more of a "cult" following (lack of a better word) that has made Ariel somewhat if not a lot more popular than at least Jasmine and maybe Belle.

I just remember the BOP predictions for Aladdin as $180 million domestic and $65 million OW.

RT scores a whole week before release? Is this a first?

It was always slated for streaming as far as I remember.

What are you suggesting when you compare BP with Aladdin?

Peter Pan has nothing to do with TLM. PP&W is free on D+ and people can watch it anytime. People aren't going to and don't need to choose between the two for money or time reasons. I'm thinking kids have the summer off and need things to do. Aladdin was HUGE during its summer. If Mario can make $600 million domestic, TLM should be able to pull in high $300's.