jedijake

Not even if they start pushing TV ads or advertising all over the place?

LOL-I guess if this movie underperforms and we scratch our heads, we can always look back and ask why its thread almost got to the 2nd page 4 days after the release of the full trailer! Huge drops are usually reserved for movies that either (a) follow up a not-so-well received predecessor or (b) is a sequel that itself is not so well received. Option a is out of the question. Let's see if b happens. If neither happen, it's a whole new world of box office.

I can see a possible 36% drop in total domestic for BPWF. But not a 36% drop in OW.

$130 million for BPWF? That would be beyond catastrophic level!

Makes it hard to gauge the possible effect it would have on BPWF since it's the opening day.

Which is good, right? True Friday may act more like a Saturday. Maybe not to the extent of a more widespread holiday, but it should be higher than a normal non-summer Friday. Maybe on the level of Good Friday?

Veterans Day? ( I asked this before but nobody answered so I looked it up). Doctor Strange's first Saturday was about the same as its Thursday/Friday combined. That was because of an elevated Friday (Veterans Day). Not saying that WF will do exactly that. But if it can pull $30m on Thursday, it may be able to do $60-$70 million on the holiday Friday. Then it could do $75-$80 million on Saturday with good WOM and even drop as low as $45 million on Sunday (unlikely with the other numbers) to get to $200 million. Could even do $50 million Friday, $65 million Saturday, and $50 million Sunday and get there if it has $30m previews.

Makes sense. Next question: will Veterans Day cause an elevated proper Friday? Looking back at charts, most movies have seen a jump in Veterans Day. That alone may be enough to push it above $200 million.

This should have NO problem being #1 until Avatar. Btw, are mid-week numbers in November and December really any worse than mid-week numbers in early May?

When does that come out? First day digital buy for me! Thor4 had continued competition from JWD and TGM and had a "mixed" reception. BPWF really needs to destroy Thor4's OW by a good margin.

They NEED to start pumping up the ad campaign. Start pushing out tons of TV spots, highway banners, web browser banners, etc. Put out ads all over the place and make this REAL. Can't rely on WOM alone and an announcement on a trailer that was dropped without any real notice. Gotta make this thing an EVENT! But the reason we will probably see a muted market push is because of Chapek. If this gets really good reviews and falls short of $500 million, ESPECIALLY below $450 million, I blame the marketing and advertising.

I go back and forth about whether I think T'Challa should have been recast. Sure, John David Washington (and others) could have made a great T'challa, depending on whether he or someone else could do the voice. However, I understand and am good with the decision not to do it. It's a tough call. They could have waited a few more years and then recast him. I also fully understand that there will be a LOT of people who just won't see the movie because Black Panther and T'Challa are synonomous (despite that others have had the mantle including Shuri). It's going to be tough. I hope that people who honestly and genuinely review the movie do so for its own merit and not for what they would want them to do about casting. As for all this inflation stuff, let's hope we don't look at a $450 million domestic and say "oh that is really a 45-50% drop from the first one, not a 36% drop". If we factor in inflation for adjusted money, we HAVE to consider that less people can actually afford to go to the movies. That's why I find issue with too much emphasis on it. And profit? That's for the studios to deal with.

Couple of things to consider that are pro's and con's to this. First, (pro), TGM had to deal with losing screens over and over to movies like JWDominion and ThorLT, but still legged it out. So, one has to wonder if WF is better reviewed than AWOW, will it have strong legs through the holidays, despite loss of theaters. Meanwhile, TGM didn't have a definite streaming date. Everyone will assume that WF will be streaming in January. So if people get busy over the holidays, they'll just watch it on D+.

When people go on and on about inflation with regards to box office, I get the sense of relying on inflation to achieve a goal. To me, it's a way of saying that people don't have enough confidence in the movie to do well in its own right and needs inflation and adjusted to either (a) build it up or (b) tear it down saying that it's success will only be due to inflation. Why can't the discussion be about how the movie will do in today's market with today's prices alone? Or are people concerned about how it will do?

Hmmm.....very very early. That exudes confidence, but it also opens the door to issues. Of course, those who attend will be praising it to high heaven. The big question is when will they open up the review embargo?

Ya know, if BPWF didn't have to share/split the premium screens with AWOW over the Christmas holidays, I'd say it would definitely have a good shot to beat BP1 and TGM just by stamina alone. But the screens lost to AWOW will cost it. I would LOVE to see it hit $500 million before the Christmas holidays begin. I'm a fan of having more female leads and really liked all of them in BP1. However, I wonder if for marking sake, it wouldn't be a bad idea to showcase M'Baku more and lots of Namor.

I don't think anyone is going to argue that. I think the question is what will make it look like a disappointment. I like the $500 million as a checkpoint. I'd even go as low as $470 or even $460 million. Although that's getting down there. A drop in the range of JW to JWFK would not be a good look at all. That's why I am using drops for Last Jedi and Age of Ultron baseline expectations. I think those kinds of drops are more than enough to account for the obstacles of BPWF.

I can't for the life of me, envision a multiplier of less than 2.5X. I can see a $175 m OW, but with about a 2.6-2.7X.

Anyone able to see the dislikes for the trailer on YT? I had the extension but for some reason now it isn't working. It's certainly not getting the unwarranted reactions that Little Mermaid got and is nowhere near the level of the hatred that Rings of Power has gotten. But, at the same time, I too am not seeing, hearing, or feeling of excitement and anticipation that both NWH and DSiMOM got months before release. But yeah it was me who said I didn't sense the hype before the trailer. I just didn't get the sense that there was THIS much of a lack of hype!

Well damn then! What the hell is going on?

Well dang! Yeah okay I remember that. Sorry. My brain. We're still a long way off to find out. How did it do in the beginning? Did tickets explode from the start?

How did BP1 do with pre-sales vs walk-ups?

We'd have to have some sort of definition of "underperform". Everyone's got their own ideas of what that means.

$525-$550 million would be great. That would be a better hold than both AOU and TLJ. There will be people "out there" who just don't get it and will clammer about how both DSMOM and ThorLT increased from their predecessors while BP2 dropped. We know better but there will be those on the interwebs that don't get box office numbers.

While I see what you are saying, I don't think BP being a breakout necessarily means that people won't show up again. People loved the worlds and the characters (albeit the most beloved one is gone). And we now have a brand new world and characters/culture to explore. We'll see what happens. If there's anything we can learn from movies since the pandemic, it's that patterns of the past can't be applied directly to the present and future. Most people would like to look at an Avengers-->AOU type drop than a TFA-->TLJ type drop. (both are not too shabby actually, considering the circumstances). And the OW drops for those sequels would give BPWF an OW between $179 and $185 million. So there's that. Again, not too shabby. Drops like JW-->JWFK is a very different story. I REALLY hope we don't see THAT!