charlie Jatinder

May be $180K Saturday. Sunday seems like $250k+. ¥50M weekend is a possibility.

Come on, you are a Tiktok star.

Actually Raya may be beating WW84 numbers internationally in real terms. It will not be releasing in markets WW84 did $25m worth and is unlikely to do $23M in ANZ (well thanks the Summer + Christmas + New Year holidays). That leaves $69M OS-ANZ, Raya is looking to perhaps do that much.

You did said if this was Max release tone will be different. That's the reason for different tone. Just to reiterate, Raya is a BOXOFFICE FLOP just like WW84, T&J, etc. Overall, it may not be losing as much as WW84.

Well Disney has 70M subs at this moment, unlike Max while is still under 20M. Besides there is no doubt on fact that it's a box office flop, my point of discussion was on overall status of film.

I would have agreed to Raya losing money by no release in Cinemark if AMC was doing bonkers or Raya had opened well anywhere in the world.

Few weeks back, @WandaLegion pointed that perhaps Disney is doing Soul without PA just to test a model for future. Mulan was just PA only release. Soul was free Disney + release to check whether giving free film will boost sub. Raya is testing PA + Theatrical release if they can co-exist. They probably will have their own target to judge which model works best and have enough subs to experiment. One thing to point tho, we all don't judge Netflix original success by how much they did in limited release they had but only Netflix know if something's hit or flop. May be cut Disney some slack assuming Raya is basically Disney+ original.

Ok PS are fine for tomorrow. Probably 25M Sunday and 59M ($9.1M) weekend. 150-175M ($23-27M) full run.

ahh. so you do visit international threads. huh.

Well, I suppose this wont be losing much or at all. D+ has like $300M per month revenue in DOM now and $300M in OS. There isn't much of new content they release. Granted there will be some revenue from Premium Access too, but for a film directly going to OTT release, the licensing revenue will be higher, and Disney will put that in their internal accounting.

¥24M Saturday for Raya. Good growth but PS for tomorrow seems okayish only. ¥53-56M weekend mostly. May go for ¥150M full run.

Disney missed a billion with Soul due to Disney+ release and COVID. Soul is #1 today in Hong Kong and in Korea and Russia its still in Top 10.

Friday China - $1.38M Russia - $0.3M Korea - $0.11M Taiwan - $0.1M Japan - $0.04M Vietnam - $0.02M Rest is ANZ and SEA countries. About $3M seems right. As for Saturday, China - $3.35M Russia - $0.9M Korea - $0.4M Taiwan - $0.3M Japan - $0.18M Vietnam - $0.06M Hong Kong - $0.06M In same markets, up by +160%. Probably $7M Saturday. Weekend should be $15M or so.

Well if any consolation, Raya's not as bad as the forecast and will finish in Top 7 atleast. Seems like $150-175K Saturday and probably $400-450k weekend. Hopefully leg out to crazy $10M.

Ranking Time. A little note that I am changing the order of ranking 3rd time in last 7 days so it's very fluid. Avengers: Infinity Wars Avengers: Endgame Thor: Ragnarok Civil War Guardians of the Galaxy Iron Man Spider-man: Homecoming Doctor Strange Black Panther Captain America: The Winter Soldier Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Ant-man Captain America: The First Avenger Ant-man and the Wasp Avengers: Assemble Captain Marvel WandaVision Thor Avengers: Age of Ultron Spider-man: Far From Home Iron Man 2 Thor: Dark World Iron Man 3 Incredible Hulk 1st one is fixated. Great. 2-4 are rotational. Great. Endgame is actually quite average film, but the sheer size and epicness it pulls, deserve to be #2. 5-9 are on similar level. Great. 10-14 are on similar level. Excellent. 15-18. Good. 19-22. Average but Good. 23. Average. 24. We don't talk about that.

Yeah, that's why I said it was MCU doing those numbers, Black Panther did $10M in India. I watched Endgame in small city, people there were shouting Yibamwe during portals. That's the impact of MCU, BP had best superhero reviews + Infinity War pent up buzz. Comparing it with Captain Marvel, being much weaker film did $420M in USA, BP doing $500M isn't that surprising.

BTW When can we discuss without spoiler tags. post weekend?

IDK man, you were getting over-excited just last few weeks when it wasn't really a big deal. and now you are way too depressed when again, it isn't really a big deal. Personally to me, I think it was E06 I realised this isn't going to be a "great" show, so I was pretty grounded after that. Now it ended, felt nothing bad, it felt like just filler/set up before next big thing's coming.

I can for sake of argument try to prove Cynosure wrong and may be I will succeed with some spin, but the ugly truth is, "yes the world is racist". Often Black Panther is shared as an example, well for one it was MCU that did those numbers. 2 it overperformed so much at black population places, that overall number came out big. Don't go far Canada which has lower Black population, BP did less than Infinity War. Majority Indians are racists, despite we being brown. In fact this "pro-white" thing is so inherent, majority don't even realise that, with fairness creams being a real thing. In fact, just a few years ago I don't think I even watched a film with Black lead. I have read Chinese posters saying same during BP release about China. And may be one can say that, well people want to watch their own films, that's why BP did so well with Black demo. So are Black people racists? But thing is, as Cynosure pointed, they are watching and raving the white lead films and stories without any problem. May be blame colonialism for that, making people inherent slave to white supremacy mentality or whatever, but that is truth. That said, I will just repeat my white friend 😛 Wandalegion here "Yeah any kind of “Disney deliberately tried to make Raya less successful because XYZ” is just frankly insane conspiracy nonsense. I don’t think there’s any need to mince words with such stupidity. "

The film is good, it could have been better if it wasn't so formulaic. One thing though, is also case of most "representation" movies, just like most of them this was just "American" characters in foreign faces and clothes. For starters I would have loved to watch it local language with subs, hopefully one day we reach there. 6/10. That's a B I suppose.

It was pretty good, in fact there are times in it, it felt pretty great but then it get formulaic and cheesy. 6/10. One thing though, I get it Disney doing representations, but that representation is basically the looks of characters and overall setting. In the end they are basically American characters in "foreign faces" and "foreign clothes". Felt same for Mulan. I would have preferred watching that in Chinese with English subs. Here may be some SEA language.

$3M-ish Friday I assume. Weekend probably $13-15M.

9M OD for Raya. PSm more than usual. PS for tomorrow 4M. Donno if will be usual PSm growth. Maoyan predicting 30M Sat, I will go with 23-25.

Russia may be $350K OD. Relatively okayish performance so far I have seen anywhere. Roughly par Tom and Jerry OD but less than Friday. Soul was $305k OD and $425K Friday.