In any case I am also having issues with MTC2. It seems that they've implemented some sort of anti-scraping block software that will shoot down requests that don't have JS enabled. Will look into ways to get around that.
On the point about preview to OW ratios, I think it can be misleading. If you just looked at Venom's internal multi, it wouldn't really stand out, but we all know how great the walkups were.
I'm not sure that adult-skewing movies would necessarily have better walkups. Venom 2 had exceptional walkups and skews youngish. Think it's more related to fanbase and I think Bond has a comparable fanbase to Furious. Though I have been wondering if F9 walkups had some capacity limitations at MTC1. I don't remember exactly but I think a few areas still had limits.
Eternals probably 12.5-27-36.5-24.5 would be my guess for how it could get there. Let's see how PS starts. I think 100 million, but I'm definitely a bit biased here.
Friday sales are lower than F9 had at MTC1 (it was about 42k at this time) despite Thurs being higher. Didn't expect that. Though it is higher in gross with ATP much higher.
What if my parameters on "better directed" are the type of direction that gives me maximal entertainment? Plenty of people are very entertained by The Room. How can you objectively say that I'm wrong to have those parameters? Even in this hyperbolic example you've chosen, there is no objectivity involved.
I feel like Halloween Kills can fill that role. Yeah it's on Peacock but that's not a huge subscribed service, and horror tends to draw people to theaters.
Growth on Saturday was always expected though? I don't know what that has to do with legs. The first one had a 2.67 multi with similar WoM and less competition, and without being a sequel.
I'll give you the Leap of Faith, but the Berlin illusion sequence was much better than all the rest you listed. I always found the kiss scene especially to be utterly overrated.
I think holiday is a bigger factor. Though if Skyfall didn't have holiday-inflated 7 days, I can't see NTTD matching that with the huge release, finale factor, and weaker reception. Maybe like 2.4-2.5.
7 days comparison should work. I don't think it would inflate things. Each film would have an equal opportunity to make money in the first 7 days, unless there was some holiday for Spectre. The problem is comparing 7 days to normal OWs.