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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah I'm not sure about Shang-Chi either. It does seem to have very low buzz compared to other MCU titles. We'll see how presales look when they start.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    Ok episode. Next week is "War Mantle", guessing from the title that one will be pretty intense.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    It's not going to be as low as 10-15 million but 6 million previews seems very optimistic at this point.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    Jungle Cruise MTC2 Thursday: Showtimes: 1447 Tickets Sold: 4988/231797 Friday: Showtimes: 3020 Tickets Sold: 7421/510823 Don't have great comps, but idk about 2.5 million previews from this. 30 million seems pretty optimistic. Btw just as a disclaimer this is including damaged/not-for-sale seats. Since that will affect every film it should be fine and once numbers are higher (like the day before and same day) it won't make a huge difference proportionally, and that is where the comps really matter anyway.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Isn't that basically the same thing as under Space Jam? 0.5 million difference. But yeah that range would cause meltdowns for sure.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Let me check. First, I need to revert the change to my script caused by that DBOX update/reversion that MTC2 did.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    I think if it got close to GvK, that wouldn't be a meltdown (assuming you mean the 5-day). I think the meltdown line is probably somewhere around BOP.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Unless something drastically changes the meltdowns in that thread are gonna make this weekend look tame. I think ITH weekend is probably the biggest meltdown thread we've had this year, but TSS flopping hard would probably beat that.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    AQP2 and F9 have had expected/good legs especially with F9 having worse WOM than past Furious films. I see no reason to panic. BW was a hybrid release.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Imo as Delta spreads we will be seeing more disappointing openings and drops. A big part of the decent numbers in late May and June was the feeling that the virus was getting over and we were on our way out. That is now gone. BW we knew wasn't having good legs for a while but that is a very poor drop for Space Jam which didn't seem to be really hated by audiences either. Day and date can't be helping the legs of these films either.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    I think Dune should do better than BR2049 unless HBO Max really causes an issue. It's just looks like a much more crowdpleasing and enjoyable film. As much as I liked 2049 it was a very dark and depressing movie.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    To add to what Porthos said, the daily pace is also far less than H&S at this point if I'm extrapolating that comp right. So the comp will keep dropping.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm not convinced streaming didn't hurt GvK. Sure it did well but how do we know it wouldn't have done even better without streaming? And especially if the virus situation globally is better in October, streaming will definitely hurt.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    Looks really good.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    For really big movies it won't make a difference but it definitely will for smaller tracks. Reason I found it was just looking through my data for Suicide Squad and a large percentage of the sales were for these kinds of seats.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=355&ShowtimeId=151081&CinemarkMovieId=84699&Showtime=2021-08-06T19:00:00 https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=355&ShowtimeId=151082&CinemarkMovieId=84699&Showtime=2021-08-06T22:15:00. These are two that I found.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    Not true, FFH was stable at 95% the whole time. Very common for blockbusters to have stable verified audience scores.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    There are a few physical distance buffer seats in scattered theaters (I think they are mostly errors or something). But the bigger issue is these other blocked seats that are labeled identical to sold seats on the homepage (with the difference only showing up on Fandango).
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Keyser's numbers have usually been slightly above mine (if this was the issue I would expect the opposite). But I think it's still worth looking at anyway so the numbers will be reliable for the future.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    That is really helpful, thanks for the tip. Maybe Fandango will be more reliable to track than the Cinemark homepage. Although I would have to make sure I don't get IP banned like last time lol.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    They appear to be exactly identical in the homepage code. I wonder if Fandango would show the same.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    Ok in investigating this I found a huge problem. Cinemark has a huge amount of default blocked seats. Examples being https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=355&ShowtimeId=151081&CinemarkMovieId=84699&Showtime=2021-08-06T19:00:00 https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=355&ShowtimeId=151082&CinemarkMovieId=84699&Showtime=2021-08-06T22:15:00. I found many others in various theaters. Here, the seats sold are identical between the two showings, which means that either 1) the seats are blocked by default or 2) the seats sold have somehow been combined between the showings (perhaps due to some error in their website update yesterday). It is a big problem though for my numbers. I can't be sure of the reliability after finding this, and I'm not sure how long it's been around. Hopefully it was an error stemming from yesterday's update, but I can't be sure. Have any trackers who track Cinemark theaters noticed this? Also, even the DBOX update was inconsistent, with some theaters still using the old DBOX system. Edit: The DBOX update now seems to have been completely reverted. After I rewrote my script for it too! This is annoying. Not gonna track until they stabilize. So, in short, it's a huge mess right now.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    At long last, Cinemark has updated its DBOX display to actually show the DBOX seats in normal shows! ...which does explain why I was getting negative numbers for TSS sales today, lol. ...and now the default price on a normal showing with DBOX seats available is shown as the default price. Which makes scraping the actual price require a browser simulator rather than a normal scraper.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    It may be worth throwing in an adjusted H&S comp though. Just as another possible scenario of how things could go, especially given the surprise boost yesterday.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    Thursday: Showtimes: 1384 (-1) Seats Sold: 3931/221069 (+202) 0.135x Black Widow's Day 6 total (1.78 million) Friday: Showtimes: 3215 (no change) Seats Sold: 2874/526594 (+154) 0.183x Black Widow's Day 6 total (4.81 million) Daily pace is really bad. The pace ratio is 0.136x of BW Thurs, 0.185x of BW Fri.
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