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Everything posted by Borobudur
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I think the expectation for China BO need to adjusted accordingly. People are getting way too excited to the point that they thought the situation over there is as open as in USA. In fact, it remain super fluid and fast changing. Yes, things are on positive trajectory but to highlight, many in China still scared of getting Covid-19. Releasing A2 now is like releasing GvK back in Mar 2021 in domestic market.
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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
Borobudur replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
Actually most of the Hollywood-friendly coastal provinces and cities such as Zhejiang, Guandong, shanghai etc, are mostly at 80% now. Beijing and other population hub like Shandong is also coming close. Most of the still hold out for opening are inland province that generally are less-Hollywood friendly. The only two places matter now but still having low opening rate are Tianjin (6th largest city in China) and Chengdu (7th largest city). -
Then how can we make us$ weaker some bit? Which pair of team prevail at the WC final will hurt the BO most? Argentina vs France?
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But the most important 3 days, I have long suspecting LATM is where A2 will underperform and WC certainly is a factor here, judging from how BO behave recent week in Brazil.
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Brazil lost in the quarterfinal, how this can affect Brazil BO to come?
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I hope Saudi Arab can somewhat offset the loss of Russia. KSA has nearly 600 screens and TGM grossed >$20m there.
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I thought New Zealand will be one of them?? I always wish they can cover more places such as Mexico or India.
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The peak is projected to come on around Dec 15? Hong Kong and South Korea experience harsh wave in early 2022, I hope that doesn't happened to China during the first 2 weeks of Avatar because I still believe there is a risk the government will impose back restriction on leisure activities if crazy wave like in HK and SK happened.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
Borobudur replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
It is never about the faith in the movie. If it is that easy I would call a $700m from China alone but unfortunately the situation is just too fluid over there for me to ignore altogether. -
I have been thinking 155m~165m but my prediction went up to 175m~180m now. But I am not that interested in OW. My aim is on 2nd weekend with 150m! Yes, it is crazy given Christmas eve but I don't care, I want that SW7's biggest second weekend record.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
Borobudur replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
I know everyone now is very optimistic about China situation but easing could trigger a huge infection wave soon. The wave will come fast and in just 2 weeks, the entire China could get overwhelmed and the government will again impose some restriction which for sure will first impact cinema business. Of course now the number of cases is on decreasing trend, but when the wave rises, the cases will jump quick and intense, I am still pegging my prediction for China box office at $350m, mainly because I suspect some form of restriction will resume down the road. -
Anything above $3bn I would be happy. First $1bn movie - Titanic from JC First $2bn movie - Avatar from JC First $3bn movie - Avatar 2 from JC. That would be a nice trilogy to look at!
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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
Borobudur replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
Ideally I would hope for 70% opening rate by the time when A2 release, and most importantly, all the costal provinces and Beijing metro would have to open at the rate of >75% by then. -
I love how everyone is praising the use of 3D here and recommend that format to people they know, Even the resistance to HFR seem calm down a lot, some even outrightly praising the HFR. Yes, see Avatar 2 in 3D, That is how the movie is scripted.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Borobudur replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Ya, Avatar 2 is 3 hours 12 min long yet no one seem to critize or react negatively to its length. That is the very first sign that the movie is getting rave review. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Borobudur replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
The review reaction definitely lean closer to TGM than DS2/thor 4