MovieMan89

3 day multis for the biggest Memorial Day opener from each year this decade: 3.28x - MIB3 3x - Sex and the City 2 2.95x - Hangover 2.81x - Tomorrowland 2.73x - Pirates 5 2.57x - Days of Future Past 2.44x - Fast and Furious 6 2.35x - Apocalypse Out of these, Days of Future Past and Fast 6 are the only two with OWs anywhere close to what Solo's will be. And their multis are bad in spite both being extremely well received in the fanbases.

I could actually see JL's OW and multi being a very real scenario for Solo at this point. Memorial openers don't tend to have the best multis to start with, if it goes sub 100 on OW, shit's getting ugly.

Good preview, about what I expected too. Still think that number is about what it needed to match the first’s OW, don’t see it going much higher.

Abstain

18m previews will probably put it right around the first's OW. 15m would be on the low side though.

Here you go: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=1952.htm It is only halfway through its run.

That's a 45% drop. Sounds good to me though.

Not only that, but facing a hard R CBM is still not quite as direct of competition as a typical CBM would be. Lots of IW's demo won't be seeing DP2.

I think it needs to do something like this to match the first's OW: Thursday: 20m Friday: 40m Saturday: 42m Sunday: 30m

It will obviously get some good walk ups if WOM is strong out of the gate, but I think people expecting it to play like the first on OW or setting themselves up for disappointment. I think it will be heavily preview/Friday skewed. Given the first had such strong walk up business and a holiday Sun/Mon, I'd say DP2 should be doing a solid 60m on OD to match its OW.

No one said Iron Man having a lead role wasn't a huge draw and reason for it doing so much better than the other CA films. That however has nothing to do with it being an Avengers film and sold as one. It wasn't an Avengers film, plain and simple. The reasons why have been stated countless times by me and several others, but most of all the results compared to the actual Avengers films speak for themselves.

Yeah, IW should take the "proper" summer crown since the only other thing I can see crossing 400 is I2, and I think it just barely does it if so. I'd bet IW does 425m from May onwards.

Would 1020 OS-China really be the best case scenario? Again, not an OS expert but it seems to me like it could add more than another 150m after that big of a weekend.

Yeah, I think IW has enough of a lead on BP at this point that 700 is far more likely than not. It's already getting pretty far into its run to still have such a lead and lose it all. A sub 50% drop this weekend would lock in 700, imo. I'll be good with anything sub 55%.

So can someone with a great grasp on OS box office let me know what's realistically the most IW can add OS from here?

Exactly. You'd think after CW failed to reach AoU levels at the box office and now IW obliterated CW's box office everyone would finally realize that movie was never Avengers 2.5 or 3 or Avengers anything.

MI2 and MI3 are both a bit on the basic side. MI3 has the better acting and script, but still kind of forgettable. The rest all have far more personality and memorability. At any rate, the trailer is out of this fucking world phenomenal. This might honestly be the best one two punch of trailers for a film I've ever seen. This thing deserves 300+ DOM and 1b+ WW if it comes anywhere close to living up to the marketing..

@chasmmiI'm a bit confused on this one, don't we need to specify the weekend for each answer? Like if I think IW's second weekend will be the closest anything gets to 100m, I put IW weekend 2 for 100m right?

Hopefully. But again, when nearly all of these types of movies have done 40m+ in the past, prepare for the worst is all I'm saying.

I'm honestly a tad scared Show Dogs will come out of nowhere and do something like 15m this weekend. There's been nothing for kids, and this horrendous live action pets with voices garbage tends to do surprisingly not awful at the box office (i.e., Beverly Hills Chihauha, G-Force, Cats & Dogs 1 and 2). Marmaduke is pretty much the worst performing one in this category, and still opened to 11m in 2010.

Part A: 1. Will Deadpool 2 Open to more than $125M? 1000 YES 2. Will Deadpool 2 Open to more than $140M? 2000 NO 3. Will Deadpool 2 open to more than $132.5M? 3000 YES 4. Will Book Club open to more than Showdogs? 4000 NO 5. Will Book Club and Show Dogs' combined OW be more than 33.33% of Deadpool's Friday gross? 5000 YES 6. Will Champion Will Avengers drop more than 52%? 1000 NO 7. Will Life of the Party finish in the top 3? 2000 NO 8. Will Breaking In finish in the top 5? 3000 YES 9. Will I Feel Pretty have a bigger Percentage Drop than Rampage? 4000 NO 10. Will Black Panther's PTA stay above $950? 5000 NO 11. Will Overboard increase more than 100% on Friday? 1000 YES 12. Will A Quiet Place have a weekend above $3.5M? 2000 YES 13. Will Tully increase more than 55% on Saturday? 3000 YES 14. Will Blockers decrease more than 31% on Friday? 4000 NO 15. Will Ryan Reynolds cameo as Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool 2? 5000 No, but X-Men Origins' Deadpool will Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Deadpool 2 make for its 3 day? 135.550 2. What will OVerboard's percentage change be? -47.450 3. What will I Feel Pretty's PTA be for the Weekend? $960.750 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Infinity War 4. Breaking In 5. Life of the Party 7. Overboard 9. I Feel Pretty 12. Black Panther Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Damn, part B and C always get me. Can't believe I did that well in Part A and still somehow managed to miss the top 10 this week.

Week 4: Yes This should be smooth sailing for everyone until week 7, which is a total crap shoot.

Almost sounds as if they're treating it like it's one of the biggest movies ever.