MovieMan89

I'd hardly call it "obvious" when it's not going to make it past 101m even if no fudge is involved.

A little bitter over Rabbit yes, because those holds have been fucking ridiculous when Paddington 2 could barely manage a 3.5x with such a low OW. Not bitter over Freed. PR already ruined the club regardless, and this is highly unnatural this weekend for Freed considering the trajectory it was on. Too obvious.

Actually the 4 new wide releases are taking up about 10k screens this weekend vs around 5k for the BATB weekend last year with the 2 new wide releases. And again, Freed was making even less than Darker before Friday, there was no natural incentive for theaters to keep it on as many screens as they did this weekend all things considered. We have entered the chocolate factory.

Yeah, this is what I was trying to say when people kept predicting 100+ for it. It's really the first movie of its kind, it wasn't going to come out grossing tons of money. It took 50 years after segregation ended to have out first legitimate African American blockbuster. Thankfully it shouldn't take anywhere near that long since same sex marriage was legalized to have gay blockbusters, but it's still going to be a bit. Probably another decade I'd say.

12-13m is a good OW since it should have strong legs. It only cost $17m and is only on 2400 screens. It's also pretty uncharted territory for a mainstream movie like that. Expecting much more than what it's doing was always wishful thinking and some people's expectations here got way out of hand.

I see Uni has started the fudge train for Freed, ensuring it stayed on way more screens this weekend than Darker did despite a lower gross before yesterday and way more new releases than that had.

TF1 is leaps and bounds a more entertaining and enjoyable film than PR.

Pacific Rim is GDT's only real misfire for me. Such a lifeless and generic film. Thank god he passed up 2 in favor of SoW.

I hope BP hits 30 for the weekend and beats Titanic's 5th, would be insane. I don't think all is lost for Tomb Raider yet, WOM could be strong as evidenced by the already very high RT audience score for a video game movie. Might be able to pull off high 70's with a mid 20's opening. If it can do at least double that OS, then it will be a small hit.

I always found it funny that anyone was hyped for the first considering it always looked like a bomb to me. Which it would have been if not for China.

I mean it's still pretty early in reviews. 6.4 isn't a great average rating less than 30 reviews in, but it's probably going to remain fresh.

TOP 15 ETC PREDICTION TEMPLATE Below is a helpful template to use for making predictions. All Players who use this template for their predictions will receive 10,000 bonus points for making my life easier when I have to score everything at the end of the game. A: Domestic top 15: 1) Avengers: Infinity War - $720m 2) Incredibles 2 - $405m 3) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $397m 4) Deadpool 2 - $300m 5) Solo: A Star Wars Story - $290m 6) Ant-Man and the Wasp - $260m 7) Mission Impossible - Fallout - $236m 8) Christopher Robin - $175m 9) Ocean's 8 - $147m 10) Hotel Transylvania: Summer Vacation - $134m 11) Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - $128m 12) Skyscraper - $126m 13) Uncle Drew - $102m 14) The Spy Who Dumped Me - $90m 15) The Equalizer 2 - $88m Backup 16*) Crazy Rich Asians- $77m *Only used if a film above exits the game B: Top 7 Domestic OW: 1) Avengers: Infinity War - $280m 2) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $144m 3) Deadpool 2 - $136m 4) Solo: A Star Wars Story - $111m 5) Incredibles 2 - $107m 6) Ant Man and the Wasp - $95m 7) Mission Impossible - Fallout - $73m Backup 8*) Christopher Robin - $60m *Only used if a film above exits the game C: Worldwide top 12: 1) Infinity War - $1.85b 2) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $1.25b 3) Incredibles 2 - $855m 4) Deadpool 2 - $840m 5) Mission Impossible - Fallout - $800m 6) Ant Man and the Wasp - $760m 8) Solo: A Star Wars Story - $585m 7) Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again - $575m 9) Skyscraper - $435m 10) Hotel Transylvania: Summer Vacation - $430m 11) Christopher Robin - $395m 12) Ocean's 8 - $370m Backup 13*) The Meg - $215m *Only used if a film above exits the game D: China 1) Infinity War - $390m 2) Fallen Kingdom - $250m 3) Fallout - $160m 4) Ant Man and the Wasp - $135m 5) Skyscraper - $120m backup 6*) Incredibles 2 - $80m *Only used if a film above exits the game E: Multipliers 1) 3.7x - Incredibles 2 2) 3.55x - Ocean's 8 3) 3.45x - The Spy Who Dumped Me 4) 3.3x - Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 5) 3.25x - Mission: Impossible - Fallout backup 6*) 3.2x - Hotel Transylvania: Summer Vacation *Only used if a film above exits the game F: China Top 15 Domestic) $3,653b Top 7 OW) $951m Top 12 Worldwide) $9,430b Top 5 China) $1,140b G: RANDOM FREE QUESTIONS RFQ1: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game: A: 100M Uncle Drew B: 200M Christopher Robin C: 300M Deadpool 2 D: 400M Incredibles 2 E: 500M Incredibles 2 RFQ2: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones Worldwide by the end of the game: A: $1.5B Fallen Kingdom B: $1B Fallout C: 800M Ant Man and the Wasp D: 600M Mamma Mia E: 400M Christopher Robin RFQ3: Predict the top grossing film of each month: A: April: Infinity War B: May: Deadpool 2 C: June: Incredibles 2 D: July: Ant Man and the Wasp E: August: Christopher Robin DO NOT ALTER THE TEMPLATE! JUST ADD IN YOUR ANSWERS AS REQUIRED. FOLLOWING THIS ONE SIMPLE INSTRUCTION WILL LAND YOU 20,000 BONUS POINTS

Well there was that weekend a few years ago when Black Mass's MT performance made it look like it must be opening to at least $100m+ lol.

I'd hold off until this weekend to say that. With the Tuesday hold and gross it's in a very good spot now to have a good second weekend hold.

Disney literally has the only two movies ever to end at $99m with Hercules and Gnomeo lol. So yeah, WiT is probably screwed if it can't do 100 on its own.

WiT was following Oz's holds really closely since Sat until this Tuesday one. Of course as mentioned, discount Tuesday wasn't such a thing then. Even still, that's a massive Tue increase for it. Oz's multi would get it to $98m. Hopefully in that case it could do a little better than that though, since this is Disney and they almost never fudge.

Like it or not, WiT has been having good holds since Saturday compared to other live action family fare from the same time of year.

Will likely be around $3.8m on Thursday based off the Monday number. It wouldn't even need Fri/Sat holds nearly as good as the past couple weeks to hit 30 from there: $7.6m (+100%) $13.4m (+76%) $9m (-33%) 30m

Not a good sign TR hasn't shown up with only two days to go. It's the kind of movie that should be frontloaded/pre-sale heavy.

30m for BP this weekend? May not be impossible. 700 should happen for sure if it does that.

Kept thinking the lead in this looked familiar in the marketing, and it finally dawned on me he's the creepy horndog older brother in JW, lol.

I think both TA's make it and probably SW9. Though SW9 will miss if reception isn't much more on par with TFA. If all of those were to miss, then I don't think we'd get another this decade.

Even if Le Labeouf is returning to take up the mantle?

Oh I can guarantee Spielberg couldn't care less if his films are hits these days lol. And any studio head would probably shake in their boots to try to deny him the budget he wants to make a film. He's literally invincible, even a $500m budgeted box office bomb wouldn't hurt him. Can still do what he wants in the industry.