MovieMan89

Wait, TL only had a 35% family split? Even I didn't think it would have been that low. Wow, it really didn't appeal to them.

Hmm, guess we saw a different film? Disney tried to get families on board with TL. I mean they had to have someone show up to the film. It is not a movie that successfully appealed to the family market though. The kid sidekick you mentioned is probably the only thing in there that worked at all for the kid audience. As evidenced by its box office when it didn't have any other family aimed films out there. MCU is 4 quad targeted, lmfao if you're going to argue otherwise.

Remember when families gave that PG movie The Greatest Showman a 20x multi? I sure am sick of hearing all these kids singing This Is Me like it's Let It Go.

I mean anyone who thinks a script written by Lindelof was written with the family audience in mind clearly doesn't know the guy's work.

It's PG because there's nothing in it to make it PG-13. However, the tone is not that of a family film at all, even in the marketing. Tomorrolwand didn't know who the hell it was for. It was a sci-fi film starring an older teen girl and an elderly man that tried to deliver an ill advised message about society that went way over kid's heads. Was it going for kids? The YA audience? Adults? Hipsters? Clearly none of the above, at least not successfully. WiT's protagonists are kids and the marketing is laced with a fantasy element. It is far more appealing to the family audience than TL ever was. At least from a marketing perspective. Also, TL's multi wasn't exactly terrible either given its reviews and lack of knowing who it was made for. Long story short: this is highly unlikely to miss 100 DOM, no matter how much many of you would seemingly like it to. Only way it does is it it really turns off families and WOM is bad among them.

For the one zillionth time, this movie is targeted at families. That audience by and large couldn't care less about review embargos and critics. If Disney was going to go out of their way to stop reactions from getting out as long as they can for a movie they thought was a dud, it would be for something like MCU. The target audience for this isn't going to pay attention to reviews. All they do is give an idea of what kind of WOM it might get, but even that is iffy, since tons of family aimed films that are rotten go well over 3x+.

Well I think a 35% or so 3rd weekend hold is coming for BP so that would be way better than JW, but we'll see.

A Black Panther movie is going to beat the most recent main Episode Star Wars film soon, and Solo will be lucky if it makes 1/3 of Infinity War WW. 100% time for a thread title change.

BP doesn't need summer or holiday weekdays to go 3.5x+. It will do it the way every other WOM non-summer/non-holiday movie with a 3.5x+ multi has, by having insane weekends. Won't be surprised if it gets a 150%+ Friday bump this week. You look at something like JW and it had rather meh 45-50% 3rd and 4th weekend drops. BP's holds will be way better than that.

And yet all the tweets in that link are positive, with the worst one saying that all the themes don't quite land but Ava deserves credit for what she did with a nearly unfilmable book.

But seriously, it already seems Reid is gonna get praised to high heaven for this. So that alone means the reviews won't be awful. And if reviews end up being outright good, then I'm not going to totally rule 200 out. Family film + great WOM + spring break is a killer combo for a multi.

200m+ DOM confirmed.

It will actually be just under $1b adjusted by Dec 2020 based on how average ticket price has increased in recent years. Should be around $9.80 at that point. That's why I've been saying that sub 500 seems very unlikely. 500 is still a massive attendance drop.

Three Drag Queens Outside Ebbing, Missouri?

Lol, $62m is definitely a huge wtf prediction. 90's at the lowest.

Tbh, this is probably headed for the usual 50-70% range of most live action Disney fantasy films. Again, I really don't see that making much of a difference in terms of how it does at the box office. Didn't for Alice, Oz, Maleficent, BatB, etc.

They're doing that because a mainstream gay romantic film is still a tough sell so they need any WOM they can get to build in advance. I'm sure their expectations for it aren't any higher than the 60-70 range DOM.

This just feels so completely off the radar to me. I really don't think most of the GA has any idea it exists.

Maze Runner ending up with an abysmal 2.3x multi. You know it's bad when it gets beat by a 50 Shades multi.

I wonder if Sony would fudge Jumanji to get it over Spider-man lol? Gonna be really, really close I think. Probably headed for a 402-405 finish.

I highly doubt JW2 is winning anything this year. Ultron already beat JW in most Asian Pacific markets. IW should be bigger than Ultron pretty much everywhere.

It's the lack of big competitors that makes a multi anywhere in the 3.6-4x range possible. Sure WW had a weak summer slate to its advantage, but it was still summer. Stuff like Pirates, Transformers, Spiderman, Apes, Dunkirk, and Despicable Me were all in its bulk gross first 2 months. Will BP even have 2 100m+ grossers over the course of its first 2 months? Maybe not. Hell, maybe WiT does as poorly as most here seem to think and it doesn't even have one. The weekend holds for it throughout all of March will be insane if it had this second weekend hold.

Far less competition.

Les Mis DOM day 1: $18.1M The Greatest Showman DOM day 1: $2.4M Les Mis DOM day 68: $147.6M The Greatest Showman DOM day 68: $160.7M For when grossing 8x as much as another movie's opening day just doesn't matter.

Complete insanity that its second weekend hold is going to be within 1% of Wonder Woman's after that OW. Remember last summer when we were saying it was complete insanity a 100+ opening CBM was gonna have a sub 45% second weekend hold? Lol, child's play for these Wakandans apparently. 3.6x is the lowest multi I see at this point. 4x is actually a slight possibility, which gets it over a mind boggling 800m DOM.