MovieMan89

Gosling's (lack of) singing ability works surprisingly well for City of Stars, which I actually don't think would be as good with someone who could sing ironically, but otherwise yeah he's painful.

Actually, yes. The singing part of A Lovely Night is painful. The instrumental part is nice, but I also would never listen to it outside the context of seeing it with a choreographed routine, which is clearly what it was made for. The Greatest Show on the other hand is like a catchy pop song that comes on the radio and you don't turn it because it's easy and fun to listen to even if it's not particularly substantive.

LLL is clearly going for a more refined and jazzy sound, but that doesn't automatically mean it succeeds with great results all around at it. It really only does that with the two songs I mentioned. TGS is going for poppy Broadway tunes and succeeds spectacularly at that on nearly every track.

Not TGS's soundtrack selling better than LLL's despite the lack of the movie's awards buzz boost.

LLL's music is forgettable af after the exceptional City of Stars and Audition.

Hot take: TGS music > La La Land's.

Jumanji is essentially Avatar-lite at the DOM box office. An opening of about half the size but with an even higher multi.

TGS is still going to get 10x+ off its 5 day. Jumanji should be over 7x the 5 day. If either has ever happened for a saturated opening movie I'm not aware of it.

Wait, you still can't see the same movie twice? If so that completely takes out a TON of the potential inflation it could have on a movie.

I think this has a pretty set multi regardless of quality. Unless it's spectacular or truly awful, I'd say 2.7-2.9x. If the marketing continues to be lackluster I see it opening below 150, which puts 400 in question.

At the rate it's going, J is headed for a 10x+ multi and TGS is headed for a 16x+ multi. I know they opened on Wednesdays and all, but what the actual fuck decade is this?

I dreamed a dream in times gone by that hope was high for Showman to make $150 million I dreamed that Les Mis' domestic take would die And Hugh Jackman would finally be forgiven

It inflates a movie's gross because people pay $10 a month to have access to one movie per day. So someone who might never pay regular admission just to see Pitch Perfect 3 might decide to go see it using MP because why not? They can see anything they want that month for one price. Or people who might never pay regular admission to see TLJ a second time might see it a second time with MP for the same aforementioned reason. How MP profits is another subject entirely, one I'd imagine largely hinges on their subscription plan which I believe locks you into a year. So some sign up maybe not realizing that they aren't going to use it enough over the course of a year for it to actually be a good deal for them, hence MP is profiting.

The money exists, MP pays full price to the exhibitor. We're talking how much it inflates a movie's gross because of people who wouldn't have seen the movie otherwise or wouldn't have seen it as much.

Hopefully it closes the gap between TLJ over the week down to something like 300k by Thursday. Really want to see it beat it this weekend, and it should have a way better Fri jump than TLJ.

I'm talking about what it does for a single movie, not all movies combined. Again, if everyone who has it sees a movie once, it's going to only add $13m to that movie using average ticket price. I'd say average ticket price is a likely price to use, because most of the GA ignore "cheap showings" anyways because those are matinees which just aren't feasible for most people to go to given work/school. Discount Tuesday when it's all day is probably the only real case where the GA might hold out for, but that's not done everywhere. Now factor in that the most of the subscriber base any one movie is probably going to get is maybe 50% of the subscribers. I guess you can bump it up to 70% if you want to assume a decent chunk of them are going to do repeat viewings. But you also have to factor in that it's not all inflated gross either, because there's guaranteed to be those who would have seen the movie with or without MP. Can't imagine it could possibly add anymore than 10m inflation at the most to any given movie's gross with where it's at now, and that would require a lot of factors panning out.

I guess it's hard to gauge because of the repeat factor. If someone who has it loves a movie than I supposed they could see it like 5 times. I'd say it probably needs around 10m monthly subscribers though before we can safely assume it's inflating a lot of movie's grosses by anything notable, and even then it would probably be unlikely to be out of the range of 15-35m or so. Again, not everyone who has it is going to see a movie, and you have to factor in how many who do have it and see a movie would have seen said movie regardless of if they had it or not. I agree that big budget movies that aren't as appealing would benefit the most. Something like Alita for example.

Interesting. At 1.5m subscribers though that only translates to about $13m of inflation on a movie if every single one of them see it using the average ticket price. So really not making that big of a difference as of yet I'd say.

I actually think this might miss 400 DOM. Not by much, but I can definitely see it happening.

So when it comes to MoviePass, I'm still confused about how it works for the movie's gross? Are they saying it counts for whatever the ticket price at that movie's showing would be normally?

Can't see Solo coming near 800 WW and DP2 is questionable. FB2 is also questionable since I could see it staying pretty flat OS but decreasing DOM. BP is certainly no lock either since OS could be as low as 300-350. Hard to say. MPR should be huge DOM, but I really have no clue about its OS prospects. I'd actually say Grinch is a pretty safe bet given Illumination's DOM and OS track record, but even with that we really only have like 4 that are safe bets. So I can't see 10 happening at all.

I think 350+ is happening for J after now realizing that it did what only Titanic has done before, and next weekend being a holiday weekend to boot. Hell, 400 may not even be entirely out at the rate it's going. If it beats Spider-man to claim Sony’s top grosser...

It's insane that both Jumanji and TGS beat their OW gross in their third weekends. The only other saturated release (2500+) I'm aware of that has ever done that would be Titanic.

Honestly, DuVernay is a good director, Lee is a good writer, and the book is a good book. I don't really understand all the doom and gloom. The trailers don't look awful like some of you are making them out to be.

Ikr? It's like summer 2016 all over again when Dory would have grossed 900m if it wasn't for Secret Life of Pets! Dammit all to hell!!