MovieMan89
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Everything posted by MovieMan89
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Honestly The Post couldn't look dryer from the marketing so I always wondered where these surefooted 100m+ predictions were coming from. I'm not even sure they'll let you buy a ticket for it at the box office if you don't present your AARP card first.
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Hopefully the 3.3 number goes up in the next updates. The first only did 4.6, so if it can get closer to 4 today it wouldn't be too much worse off than its predecessor.
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That would be better, I think it could finish within 10m of the first if it hits closer to 14m.
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Yes, but not being tasteful in your own hyper stylized fictional depraved mind is a lot different than not being tasteful with one of the most gruesome and horrific real life murders of the last 50 years. Just not here to see fountains of blood gushing from Sharon Tate's impregnated stomach. Sorry.
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The trailer gets notable laughs from kids when I've seen it in the theater. Think there will actually be a sizable chunk of kids asking their parents to take them to PR, so I agree 100m+ is on the table.
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I just realized it's actually a possibility that Disney gives us our only 100m grossers until DP2. The only safe bets until then are BP, Wrinkle in Time, and IW. 50 Shades Freed, Peter Rabbit, Tomb Raider, RPO, and Rampage all have chances but all could easily miss too. I'm sure at least one makes it, but still, not a promising winter/spring slate.
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Actually Paddington should have move to Peter Rabbit's spot and PR to late March where it would actually lineup with Easter.
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I do think Paddington will manage at least a 5x multi with an OW that low (the first hit 4x), but 60m is still disappointing.
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Now I'm thinking Paddington should have moved to April. Would have had a pretty open family market and time for a proper campaign.
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I guess this should have been expected in the Age of Orange.
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Noooooo Paddington. I guess the gimped marketing campaign really might have had a big effect on it. On the bright side, maybe it can pull some kind of crazy 6x+ multi or something with an OW that low. Meh for all the other openers too and really didn't expect that big of a drop for Jumanji this weekend. Looks like some of us got a bit ahead of ourselves with 350+. TGS on the other hand continuing to do crazy things.
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Nah, no chance for GO. The Academy feel way too good about themselves for awarding 12YAS and Moonlight in the past few years. And GO is horror, which is the final death knell for it winning.
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In my opinion, this is just a hallmark of the Academy's stubborness to adapt from their crusty set ways and realize a BP doesn't have to fit one mold. That and wanting to make a political statement lately every year. Lady Bird really does seem like a shoe in to win given what they've been doing the last several years.
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GDT would make this the 4th out of the last 5 years a Mexican director won.
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The split IS the norm now, not becoming. Until we see a noticeable trend over several years where BP/BD are the same, which isn't starting this year unless SoW miraculously wins BP.
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Am I the only one a bit unsettled by the idea of seeing Tarantino's over the top gore applied to such a horrific real life murder? Seems a bit too much. I hope he tones his style down since this isn't exactly fiction this time.
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PM and Commuter will surely have bad legs and be easy to axe by then. Doubt Hostiles will be pulling much either. And just more reason for theaters to drop The Ass Jedi.
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I don't like December for it, it will never be first, second, or probably even third choice for much of anyone in any kind of typical December lineup. MLK weekend is a good spot for it domestically. 3 could definitely benefit from a longer and more fleshed out marketing campaign as you said.
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12? That's way too low. Even Ferdinand did 13 on a December weekend that is ripe for depressed openings before Xmas. This is a Holiday weekend in January. Paddington should be good for 18 or so, imo.
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Paddington is probably right on track to match the original, which is always where expectations should have been. 100 was a big long shot all along. Would be nice to see it have even better legs than the first though because you're probably a sadist and a serial killer if you see that movie and say something bad about it.
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I actually feel like Dunkirk (and Nolan for BD) could get snubbed. The movie just isn't showing much of any momentum during this awards season and seems completely lost in the conversation already and we all know the Academy's track record with Nolan as it is. Summer release may have hurt it.
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Moviepass and its Impact on the Box Office
MovieMan89 replied to Eric Quinn's topic in Box Office Discussion
I still find it hard to believe a service with only 1.5m subscribers can be having that big of an effect on the box office. You guys realize how little that number is in the grand scheme of the moviegoing population right? -
I really enjoyed the first movie despite having zero expectations for it yet remember absolutely nothing about the second. As in I literally couldn't remember if I saw it until I went and found the trailer on YT to remember I had and yet still don't remember much of anything about it. So my anticipation for this is pretty non-existent.
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Daily Numbers | Wednesday Jan 10th | The Last Jedi 1.7 million
MovieMan89 replied to MaxAggressor's topic in Numbers and Data
I'd say no way, this Holiday has literally 8 movies all aiming for 150m+ and another 4 hoping for 100+. No room for a breakout. The question should be which movies this holiday will severely underperform? At least 3 of those 12 will, if not 4 or 5. -
Assuming Disney doesn't actually come to their senses and move Solo to August, I can see this doing really well and maybe finally beating MI2 unadjusted. Has one of the best release dates of the summer given how it's avoiding the May/June clusterfuck and coming off of one of the weakest July slates I've ever seen, heading into a very questionable and iffy August slate.
