MovieMan89

Locks: 1. Black Panther 2. Infinity War 3. Solo 4. Deadpool 2 5. Incredibles 2 6. Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 7. Ant-Man and the Wasp 8. Mission Impossible 6 9. X-Men: Dark Phoenix 10. The Grinch 11. Fantastic Beasts 2 12. Ralph Breaks the Internet 13. Aquaman 14. Mary Poppins Returns Near Locks: 1. A Wrinkle in Time 2. Ocean's 8 3. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again 4. Hotel Transylvania 3 5. Venom 6. Halloween 7. The Nutcracker 8. Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse Possible: 1. Fifty Shades Freed 2. Peter Rabbit 3. Tomb Raider 4. Ready Player One 5. Rampage 6. The Nun 7. Christopher Robin 8. The Predator 9. Crazy Rich Asians 10. Mowgli 11. Night School 12. Holmes and Watson 13. Creed 2 14. Mortal Engines 15. Bumblebee Long Shots: 1. Paddington 2 2. Maze Runner: The Death Cure 3. The 15:17 to Paris 4. Love, Simon 5. Pacific Rim Uprising 6. Sherlock Gnomes 7. The New Mutants 8. God Particle (Cloverfield 3) 9. Slender Man 10. Skyscraper 11. The Spy Who Dumped Me 12. The Equalizer 2 13. The Meg 14. Smallfoot 15. Robin Hood 16. Bohemian Rhapsody I think probably around 35 do it, could even hit 40 though.

Yeesh, hadn't heard this. The hold next weekend could get bloody if it's losing 40% of its TC.

Ritchie seems like a terrible choice for this. Don't get it at all.

And that's virtually the same OW difference between as Titanic.

Lol at the difference of how much lower of an OW gross than TLJ of almost all the movies that beat its 4th weekend besides TFA: Jurassic World - 12m The Avengers - 13m Beauty and the Beast - 46m The Dark Knight - 62m Spider-Man - 106m Wonder Woman - 117m The Jungle Book - 117m Avatar - 143m Zootopia - 145m The Incredibles - 150m The Phantom Menace - 155m Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe - 155m Monsters Inc - 158m Titanic - 192m

They care about Paddington too though apparently, so minor saving of face.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/worstopenings.htm?page=WRSTOPN30&p=.htm So Showman had the 43rd worst super saturated opening of all time, but if you look at the 42 openings worse than it, nothing finished above 40m. If you look at the entire top 200, the highest total was Fun With Dick and Jane's 110m off a 14.3m opening. TGS will easily eclipse that total. TGS will also get the distinction of being the first saturated or super saturated release to open under 10m and hit 100.

Guardians 1 and Alice are really the only other 300+ grossers since I've followed box office for 15+ years I can think of that showed next to no signs that 300 would be possibly heading into opening day.

Nope, not at all what I said. I said Jumanji making 300 is more of a surprise than IT, not more impressive. No one called Jumanji hitting 300, several called that for IT. Jumanji didn't have record shattering trailers and exploding in pre-sales like IT. I know because I said NATM numbers could be possible for Jumanji a few weeks before release and the only other person here I saw saying that was EmpireCity. A few others thinking 200+, but I'd say the average prediction on December 19th around here was probably like 125-140

You saying it's revisionist history of the highest order is what's revisionist history. We literally had an over Gravity club here that was made months prior and plenty joined it, especially in August and early September. I know it's not revisionist history because I was one of the biggest naysayers of the movie even doing 100m for months, and yet even I had to admit 200 was happening a couple weeks before release. Some were expecting 300+ going into release, plenty were expecting 250+, and almost everyone knew 200 was happening. Compare to Jumanji where there were maybe like 6 of us saying 200+ could happen going into release. No one even whispered 300.

If you didn't know IT was going to be massive in the weeks leading up to release then clearly you don't follow box office. It was showing signs it could hit 300. Jumanji on the other hand showed no signs that it would hit 300, even after release. 200+ was looking likely to some of us in the weeks before release, but even then we were a definite minority. Jumanji hitting 300 is easily more surprising than IT. Which is more impressive is completely irrelevant to the question of which is more surprising. IT definitely wins the former.

I guess I never totally rule out a huge total for big studio animation because you just never know how WOM will be, and if WOM is good you know it's gonna have great legs. It's a lot different than live action.

Will yeah, that went without saying haha.

Will Jumanji be the most surprising 300 grosser ever dom? Seems like Alice in Wonderland, Deadpool, American Sniper, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Passion of the Christ would be its competitors in that field.

Jumanji will be Black's highest grosser, Hart's highest live action, and Johnson's highest leading role (2nd highest overall). I'd definitely think all three will want in on the sequel.

When is SoW going to go wider? Or will it not ever get any kind of very wide release? This expansion rollout seems kind of odd.

Sony might as well just sell Spidey off completely now that they have Jumoney. MCU, SW, Jurassic, and Fast should be quaking in their boots at the JCU.

If you ask me it would have been far smarter for marketing if they could have incorporated Dumbledore's name into the subtitle opposed to Grindlewald's, but oh well.

I don't think there will be any true "surprise" 300m grossers this year, unlike the last two years where we've had about 4 300m+ surprises each year. Unless some people will still be surprised with BP or Poppins grossing that, but I sure won't. The former seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Most of the rest on this poll have nearly zero chance of hitting that imo, save for the Grinch, which would only be a mild surprise. Could see some 200m+ surprises though like Venom, Halloween, Wrinkle in Time.

To be fair, I can see why the movie may have been a bit too cliche for critics. You can figure out exactly how everything is going to play out. But the execution is great.

That awkward moment when Jumanji outgrosses the likes of Batman vs Superman and Spiderman Homecoming.

Showman probably has a chance to beat it next weekend.

Btw, this has to be the most exciting post New Years weekend ever. I mean except for that little "Star Wars" thing Hollywood is trying to make happen.

The soundtrack for TGS has to be one of the most memorable ones in ages. Can't fucking get the songs out of my head, even the ones I'm not crazy about.

I'm very excited to see what happens with Showman next weekend now. It's a holiday weekend, so a slight increase may not even be out of the bounds of possibility if it stayed almost flat this weekend. It's a long shot, but a scenario where it hits 100m by MLK Monday could be a possibility.