MovieMan89
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Everything posted by MovieMan89
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Actually, yes. The singing part of A Lovely Night is painful. The instrumental part is nice, but I also would never listen to it outside the context of seeing it with a choreographed routine, which is clearly what it was made for. The Greatest Show on the other hand is like a catchy pop song that comes on the radio and you don't turn it because it's easy and fun to listen to even if it's not particularly substantive.
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It inflates a movie's gross because people pay $10 a month to have access to one movie per day. So someone who might never pay regular admission just to see Pitch Perfect 3 might decide to go see it using MP because why not? They can see anything they want that month for one price. Or people who might never pay regular admission to see TLJ a second time might see it a second time with MP for the same aforementioned reason. How MP profits is another subject entirely, one I'd imagine largely hinges on their subscription plan which I believe locks you into a year. So some sign up maybe not realizing that they aren't going to use it enough over the course of a year for it to actually be a good deal for them, hence MP is profiting.
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I'm talking about what it does for a single movie, not all movies combined. Again, if everyone who has it sees a movie once, it's going to only add $13m to that movie using average ticket price. I'd say average ticket price is a likely price to use, because most of the GA ignore "cheap showings" anyways because those are matinees which just aren't feasible for most people to go to given work/school. Discount Tuesday when it's all day is probably the only real case where the GA might hold out for, but that's not done everywhere. Now factor in that the most of the subscriber base any one movie is probably going to get is maybe 50% of the subscribers. I guess you can bump it up to 70% if you want to assume a decent chunk of them are going to do repeat viewings. But you also have to factor in that it's not all inflated gross either, because there's guaranteed to be those who would have seen the movie with or without MP. Can't imagine it could possibly add anymore than 10m inflation at the most to any given movie's gross with where it's at now, and that would require a lot of factors panning out.
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I guess it's hard to gauge because of the repeat factor. If someone who has it loves a movie than I supposed they could see it like 5 times. I'd say it probably needs around 10m monthly subscribers though before we can safely assume it's inflating a lot of movie's grosses by anything notable, and even then it would probably be unlikely to be out of the range of 15-35m or so. Again, not everyone who has it is going to see a movie, and you have to factor in how many who do have it and see a movie would have seen said movie regardless of if they had it or not. I agree that big budget movies that aren't as appealing would benefit the most. Something like Alita for example.
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Can't see Solo coming near 800 WW and DP2 is questionable. FB2 is also questionable since I could see it staying pretty flat OS but decreasing DOM. BP is certainly no lock either since OS could be as low as 300-350. Hard to say. MPR should be huge DOM, but I really have no clue about its OS prospects. I'd actually say Grinch is a pretty safe bet given Illumination's DOM and OS track record, but even with that we really only have like 4 that are safe bets. So I can't see 10 happening at all.