MovieMan89

At this point these "Bad *insert person/demographic*" comedies are essentially a franchise that somehow almost always tend to do well no matter how much it seems like they won't. *Adjusted grosses: Bad Boys - $131m Bad Boys 2 - $200m Bad Santa - $86m Bad Teacher - $109m Bad Grandpa - $108m Bad Moms - $100m?

My problem with predicting that high for Sing is that in the past Illumination's marketing has been genius at completely capturing kid's attention and making them actively want to see their films. That's why their films always outperform the general predictions, because it's adults predicting them and it tends to go over their heads at how mass appealing to kids their marketing is. But Sing is the first time I can see kids en masse not actively wanting to see one of their films. Sure I think it looks decent enough to kids, but I can't see it being a movie they beg their parents to take them to like what happened with DM2, Minions, and Pets. So the verdict is out on how well their marketing can work if it's not quite so universal to children.

I think 40 is definitely a doable target on OW. Early reception has been strong, marketing is solid and Pets+Dory juggernaut will be fairly exhausted by that point. Families will be ready for one last summer film for the kids.

I could see this literally being How to Train Your Dragon IRL, and that applies to the reception and box office run.

Thank you! The two of them made the movie (along with the really great visuals) and I would have love to see their zany antics emphasized even further.

Seriously though, you guys have major nostalgia glasses on if you can't see how this summer isn't even close to as bad as '03 overall. Again just look at those top 40's! It's a miracle Hollywood still exists 13 years after that summer '03 slate. If it had stayed that bad, the industry as we know it would cease to exist today.

Wow, I couldn't disagree more. I guess I can maybe see an argument for Terminator 3, Bad Boys 2, and SWAT just being mediocre but every other one is the epitome of Hollywood at its absolute lowest of all lows. All were pulled from the top 40 btw. Compare to this summer's top 40 so far where really only most would make an argument for IDR, The Darkness, and Warcraft being outright awful. And probably not even so much for Warcraft.

There are no summers with that many abominations to list. Maybe summers that have a ton of underwhelming flicks and a few horrible ones, but that one was literally dozens of putrid releases. And I even left some out of that '03 list!

That's like saying this summer had Dory and Civil War so it automatically wins. Summer '03 is by far the most abysmal summer of my lifetime overall. Nothing else comes close. Terminator 3, Bad Boys 2, SWAT, Hulk, Spy Kids 3, American Wedding, Daddy Day Care, Charlie's Angels 2, Legally Blonde 2, Tomb Raider 2, The Lizzie McGuire Movie, Jason vs Freddy, Jeepers Creepers 2, Johnny English, The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, Uptown Girls, Dumb and Dumberer, SinBAD, The In-Laws, My Boss's Daughter, The Medallion, Hollywood Homicide, From Justin to Kelly, fucking Gigli....MOTHER OF GOD WHEN WILL THE LAMBS STOP SCREAMING.

And ironically '13 was a crappy summer along with '03. Must be something about those 3's and 6's.

I really don't get why this movie was made if it is indeed so underwhelming? Is Greengrass really desperate for the cash? Damon certainly shouldn't be. Doesn't seem fitting of either of them to want to just do a cash grab. Unless it's just one of those cases of critics not "getting" a film and it's a lot better than reviews suggest.

Yikes, this is in trouble at the BO with those kind of reviews. Bourne is totally a reception based franchise. I can't imagine a really successful one that doesn't have great reception. I just assumed it would be on par with the trilogy given Greengrass and Damon's involvement all these years later, but I guess the lack of much shown in the marketing really was an indicator the studio didn't have much faith in the quality of it after all.

The online marketing for Nerve the past week has been ridiculous. I can't fucking escape the damn stuff if I'm online. I'm not sure movies like BvS, Deadpool, and Civil War were that omnipresent on the web in the week leading to release.

I just meant in general those two actors seemed bored and their characters lazily written this time around.

What a slight movie this was. It really did feel like an episode of the show stretched paper thin to a feature runtime. Nothing bad here, but man was I bored in many places which is a terrible thing to be in a movie like this. I also felt the spark and charisma of a lot of the cast was absent (particularly Pine and Quinto), along with a drought of the humorous banter between them that I loved about the first two (it was there but not enough of it). Bones/Urban and Scotty/Pegg were the only two characters/actors that seemed on point here to me. Also, maybe I'm just jaded but to me the action was toned way back for Lin. And where's the fun in that? If you're gonna hire the guy then let him go balls to the wall over the top with the action sequences. That's what he's best at. This isn't a bad movie in any real way, but I'll be damned if I have any desire to see it again nor do I suspect to remember it in a few short months.

This is the first Illumination release since DM1 that I don't have a set prediction or feel for gross. I'm pretty confident in it hitting at least 200 with their marketing behind it, but how close it gets to 300 or if it can actually break that mark I think will depend on just how big Moana and Rogue One are. Both are coming before it and both will have the family market, so fatigue could be a real problem here. Again though, less than 200 seems pretty unfathomable for Illumination at the moment.

The general predictions for The Lorax around here were 150ish and the general predictions for every subsequent Illumination release were right around DM1's 250m. The reason I remember this is because in all 4 cases I was one of the few arguing significantly higher numbers. So this board has always lowballed them in the past.

Ah, see that's what I was wondering. I just saw the newest trailer in the theater, and it was so long and showed so much I was led to believe it must be a longer film than the typical 90 min animation runtime. It also looks to me like the film could skew adult in some of its themes. Rocky and unfulfilling marriage with Mrs. Piggy, and teen from a bad background and criminal family business with gorilla boy. Will be interesting to see how a more mature Illumination film plays. I'm sure it will still do well regardless.

You're dead on about Illumination films being underestimated on this forum. It goes all the way back to The Lorax. I swear, I've had to argue in circles with a lot of people about why the film will do huge numbers with every single Illumination release.

DM3 has the potential to be Illumination's highest grosser yet if it's well received. There are zero mass appealing family films next summer. Cars 3 isn't even locked for 150 and Ferdinand and Captain Underpants aren't even locks for 100. The competition is ridiculously weak, allowing DM3 to basically rule the summer among families. And keep in mind said films are bringing in north of $1.2b in gross this summer alone, so it's a massive market to serve.

Lmao no one is a big fan of Cars outside of 3-8 year old boys, and that audience can only carry a movie so far as Cars 2 found out. Pirates would have to be near CotBP quality to increase over OST at this point. The franchise and Depp's career are completely buried DOM at the moment.

Most people thought Iron Man 2 was "locked" to increase also. The fact of the matter is that everytime a first CBM has hit 300+, the sequel has decreased. IM3 remains the only CBM to increase from a predecessor that made 300+, and we all know why that was. Anymore quality seems to be less and less relevant to CBM multis, especially the sequels. When you have Civil War scoring one of the highest tomatometers ever for a CBM and barely scraping past a 2.2x multi, nothing above a 2.4-2.5x multi can be assumed for the big openers in the genre anymore. So it's going to need an OW of at least your 140 prediction to really have a shot at beating the first. And I'd say that's on the high end of what we should be expecting on OW. IM1 opened similarly to GotG, and likewise I'd expect a similar OW to IM2 for GotG 2 (130ish). Granted, I don't think as high as 350 is impossible or anything, but a betting man wouldn't count on an increase.

My yearly top 10 prediction atm: 1. Episode VIII - $775m 2. Spider-Man Homecoming - $415m 3. Beauty and the Beast - $400m 4. The LEGO Batman Movie - $375m 5. Despicable Me 3 - $345m 6. Fast 8 - $310m 7. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - $305m 8. Coco - $300m 9. Wonder Woman - $300m 10. Justice League - $275m Would love to throw Uncharted in there as the big breakout of the year, but past video game adaptations make that pretty hard to put confidence in. Still, it has by far the most blockbuster potential of any video game adaptation ever if done right.

Look at the history of the Batman movie grosses and combine that with The LEGO Movie's success on top of that. 300+ is far from a crazy assumption.

Honestly won't shock me if BatB and Lego Batman were to claim the #2 and 3 spots for the year, beaten only by Ep 8 of course. Next summer is incredibly weak for potential mega hits. GotG 2 has every reason to go the way of most big CBM breakouts and decrease with the second installment. Probably just eeks by 300. DM3 can probably hit 300-350 with smart Illumination marketing and Spiderman has the potential to take the summer and be the only 400+ grosser if it really delivers. But that's still a big if for now. Nothing else in the summer is hitting 300 shy of a huge breakout we don't see coming (don't even bring up Pirates or Transformers because those franchises are beyond tired domestically). Opposed to LEGO and BatB which are near locks for 300 if well received, 350+ definitely on the table for both.