That's my point though. There is no clear frontrunner this year yet, so I am basically going with what I think the Academy will go for. Does that make it the frontrunner in reality? No, but I think it's basically as valid as what someone else's instincts are saying will win BP at this point. One thing about TBS and Spotlight is they are the only BP ones with a screenplay, acting, editing, and director nom. So I suppose both are good choices for a frontrunner at this point. The reason I'd still give TBS the edge would be because I don't think McCarthy has any chance to win director and McKay's direction definitely stood out and could gather a lot of fans. TBS also has a better shot at winning editing than Spotlight imo. I feel like if Spotlight wins BP, screenplay could be its only other win which would be very unusual.