MovieMan89
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Everything posted by MovieMan89
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The Force Awakens, Avatar, and Exchange Rates
MovieMan89 replied to LinksterAC's topic in International Box Office
Wow, very nice Linkster. So we already have an additional $286m then for TFA in OS gross just from those countries. -
Kung Fu Panda 3 | 1/29/2016 | New Trailer on Page 26!
MovieMan89 replied to CJohn's topic in Box Office Discussion
Unless we can be fairly certain marketing is making kids laugh. Then we know a good OW is coming. I'll never forget the way hordes of kids cracked up at the DM2 and Minions marketing whenever I went to an animated movie and saw their trailers. Same reason I am expecting huge things from Pets. -
The release date is highly suspicious itself of them trying to use the Cloverfield name to pull the wool over the GA. It's kind of like saying "yeah we know we're gonna piss a ton of people off and this movie will crash hard, so let's just go ahead and schedule it right before BvS. Who cares, it will make all it's money on OW anyways."
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It never ceases to confound me though how many people want to always downplay competition as a factor in a movie's legs. Of course WOM is first and foremost the important thing in that area, but how can anyone say a light vs moderate vs heavy slate of competitor grosses have no difference between their effect on another big grosser? I mean Cameron himself would disagree, as it's why he adores the December releases, so he can have January and February mostly to himself. Though he may be in for a nasty surprise if he expects the same for Avatar 2, now that January and February have become far more viable months than they were just 6 years ago.
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Box Office Theory 2015 Oscar nomination Game!-Congrats TST!
MovieMan89 replied to Impact's topic in And The Winner Is...
Wow, I did awesome on the main cats, just kinda messed up a lot of the technical ones. Damn Revenant scored like 4 more tech noms than I or even the "experts" ever expected. @Impact, I did a similar thing with BP, replacing Room with SOC as my alt at the last moment even though I thought Room had a much better chance. -
I totally agree, I just don't think it's wrong to say holds could be lighter with a barren January. Would they be Avatar level holds? Absolutely not. Definitely think we could have gotten a ROTK level hold this weekend though without 2 new releases grossing 50m+ for the weekend and a holdover doing 30.
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Fine, looks like I did forget about Did You Hear About the Morgans. Adding it in brings the total to $377m through NY weekend, opposed to the $340 for the 7 new ones against TFA. Or if you added in the expanding Nine, then we better add in the expanding Big Short as well. Now it's$390 for Avatar's competition vs $370m for TFA. So you really gonna stick by it being any real difference in competition level? Sorry, but it wasn't.
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Unfortunately no, because even the headline is "Is This the first $3 Billion Movie?" and they bring the number up a few other times. Admittedly they do say it may be "reaching for the stars, but who knows", but if they knew anything at all about box office they would know that we 100% know it won't by this point.