I still think they are pretty good as far as tracking goes, since that will never be perfect. But they seem to just have weeks now and then where they are way off.
In order of likeliness:
Silence (Scorsese has only missed BP once this century out of 6 films)
The Founder (Weinstein biopic. 'Nuff said. Harvey won't screw up again after Carol this year)
Zemeckis' WWII
Story of Your Life
Passengers
Sully
Bourne 5 (Ultimatum would have likely gotten in with today's rules, so this has a shot if on par with that)
The Great Wall
The Girl on the Train
Billy Lynn (though that MTV Movie Awards cast makes me very hesitant to put it here)
Really hard to say. Should be Max, unless The Big Short is the BP/BD winner, in which case it would likely steal editing away from Max. TFA could also upset Max in Special effects. MM might just win the two sound awards, production, and makeup while TBS ties with 4 wins as well. The other scenario being if the Revenant really does take the big two, it already has actor and cinematography on lock and could then carry a bunch of its technical noms.
The movie would totally fail without his performance (even more so than w/o Larson's), so in a way it is pretty bizarre that there is such strong support for it with them, yet he wouldn't be nominated. Especially if Wallis could get in lead for Beasts of the Southern Wild a few years ago.
I'd imagine the same people who enjoy Lava are the kind who love Yellow Submarine and Octopus's Garden. Me personally, I find them to be lows for artists who are above that.
I don't know, could make a strong argument Room would have replaced Martian given the Scott snub. There must be some major Room love among them for Abrahamson to knock out Scott.
I think it seems like the one the Academy would go for. Unless they do go for The Revenant or Mad Max, but to me those have bigger hurdles to overcome.
Honestly don't really care about the See You Again snub. The melody is very derivative of some past hits, and the lyrics I always felt were trying too hard to tug the heartstrings without much genuine effort. Hard to feel genuine when your song sounds like it was made in a factory for the sole purpose of being a number one smash hit. Kind of like if Roar by Katy Perry had been in a movie and got nominated.
Well Room is the best surprise for me. It's too bad Tremblay couldn't have gotten in. Happy Max did what it should have. Huge achievement for it. Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn are such boring BP fillers. So many better choices they could have gone with, but not surprising.