I don't think it's a lock at all honestly. All the 90m+ openers this summer have had multis around 2.2-2.5x.Even if this opens to a solid 100m I don't think anything above a 2.3x multi is very likely, especially if it's that bad of a movie. ROTF had shit legs as soon as the WOM kicked in, and summer multis weren't nearly as bad 5 years ago as now. A 2.3x multi off a 100m OW would put it in a horse race with DOFP for #1 of the summer. And I'm not even banking on a 2.3x multi. TASM2 barely managed 2.2x.
Ironically this is the only year ever I was sure an animated film would be #1 of the summer. Even last year I decided to go with IM3 over DM2 even though I thought all along it would be close. And 2010 I was really torn between IM2 and TS3. But this year seemed like Dragon 2 would take it easily to me. It's gone horribly horribly wrong for that movie.
I guess that and KFP2 will teach DWA to make quality sequels to quality movies. Madagascar 20 and Shrek 500 it is.
Even if we can explain the shit OW, Dragon's legs are inexplicable at this point. It had a low OW, a harsh 2nd weekend drop, no animated competition, and has nothing but critical raves and apparent praise from the people who do see it. Yet it's holding significantly worse in its third weekend than even a big disappointment like KFP2. HOW, GODDAMIT, HOW?!?
If this and Dory both keep their summer 2016 release dates this is going to get absolutely gutted at the box office. If Dragon 2 couldn't do anything with everything it had going for it in a summer where it was the only animated film on the market, how on earth is this going to compete with one of the most anticipated animated films ever?
Tangled is a brilliant take on the Disney princess film. Re-watched it shortly after Frozen to see if I was remembering it too fondly, but nope it thoroughly destroys Frozen in every aspect except the animation itself. And for the record Tangled got just as good critical reception and has a slightly better IMDB score than Frozen so I'm obviously not alone in thinking it's just as good or better.
Well we obviously have very different taste based on your 1st pick.
For me post-renaissance Disney films would go:
1. Wreck it Ralph: A
2. Tangled: A
3. Lilo and Stitch: A-
4. The Emperor's New Groove: B+
5. The Princess and the Frog: B+
6. Winnie the Pooh: B+
7. Treasure Planet: B-
8. Bolt: B-
9. Frozen: C+
10. Meet the Robinsons: C
11. Atlantis: D+
12. Brother Bear: D
13. Chicken Little: D
14. Home on the Range: F
Shrek is still a great and funny movie. The pop culture reference were far from the only thing it had going. And there's not that many of them. Watched it not that long ago.
If TF4 is another terrible Transformers sequel and is the only movie to have a big gross this summer then audiences truly deserve all the crap Hollywood churns out every year. They're the ones supporting and apparently liking it.
I will say I think the Disney brand name is going a long way in helping Maleficent's legs. With Frozen I think Disney has regained their footing as the premier studio for families. I think just the appeal of the brand name right now alone is causing a lot of families to go pick Maleficent over Dragon as their family outing.
EOT definitely having some legs, I bet the movie could have done great DOM if it didn't have a marketing campaign that made it look like generic sci-fi trash.
Can I just put it out there right now that I have no idea how to use the Watanabe smiley in the proper context whatsoever? Seriously WTF is his purpose? Oh and before anyone respond to that, here:
So based off the Sat numbers it's kind of a horse race then for #1 between 22JS and TLAM2. Kind of insane 22JS could occupy 2 weekends at #1 considering the majority of us never thought it would hit #1 at all.
DOFP could edge out TLS if these late legs hold up. It will be about 17m behind TLS after this weekend. So it would need a 2.7-2.8x multi off of this weekend's number to beat it.