peludo

Just to point Titanic ranks #4 in Spain (#1 in admissions of course)

I see a film on Maoyan (I do not see its title in English) leading the ranking yesteday and today with just pre-screenings (it will be officially released tomorrow). It has grossed until now in this 2 days 66m Yuan and it is at 28m of presales for tomorrow. It is at 789k interested on Maoyan and 9.6 as pre session rating. Is it just me or this seems really big?

I have taken into account inflation, let's say a 25-30% to reach 900s OS-C. The new big markets like Brazil or Mexico (which were already quite big in 2009) can make something, but they can not compensate the nearly locked big drop from Europe. What Avatar did in Europe was historic and the film had two extremely positive factors: both 3D doping and best ERs ever. I have doubts about the first one too. I insist that it is only my theory. I can be perfectly wrong. In fact, I really wish I am wrong and this delivers what you have been saying for years, $3b, $4b or more. I am done with Marvel and I want any other thing can make huge numbers (I adore TGM run).

Ok, maybe I have been extremely conservative with the $700m scenario, but I could perfectly see an under $1b OS-China without too many problems The first one did about $1.82b OS-C. You have to take out Russia and Ukraine, where it did $125m combined. Applying today ERs in biggest markets for Avatar (Eurozone+UK+SK+Australia+Japan), it drops from $1.17b to $820m (quick calculations, but a 30% drop fits more or less with the ERs situation). Extrapolating to the whole $1.7b OS-C would mean $1.19b. With a 40% drop in attendance you have barely over $700m. You need to apply a 40% inflation to reach $1b OS-China (3.1% increase per year on average, something that has not happened even with the huge inflation we have today). Maybe 900s OS-China. Of course, I asume a 40% drop in attendance, something that we could see in many countries, mostly European. Can James Cameron do it again and make people come back to theaters? I do not doubt about he can do it. But right now I am not so optimistic because of economical situation. On the other hand, I am extremely optimistic about its performance in China. I can be wrong, but I do not see it a so crazy scenario.

I do not get the laughs at this post. It is EXACTLY what happens with ERs. Avatar, beyond the 3D boost, had some of the best ERs ever (1€=1.45$). And now the sequel, if nothing changes along next months, will have to face some of the worst ERs ever (similar to 2001-2002 period). And I do not see A2 selling 9.5 million admissions again in Spain, for example. In fact, I do not see nothing selling that amount of admissions right now. Pretty agree that drop in admissions in Europe can be huge. Said this, I do not get your Chinese estimation. The first film tripled the previous all time record ($200m against $65 of TF2). China LOVED Avatar and I do not see any reason why it would "only" increase a 50%. It should challenge EG figures. Maybe more. In fact, if there is a HLW film able to make $1b in a single market is Avatar 2 in China. I could see right now: DOM: 700 OS-C: 700 China: 800 WW: $2.2b

My list (already sent):

Yes, same ER than in 2002. In December 2001, with HP1 and FOTR on screens, it was even worse. In 2009-2010, Avatar had some of the most favorable ERs ever (over 1.40$=1€). On the other hand, inflation can compensate that loss. I used to follow closely the changes in ERs (I had a thread about ERs), but I have become too vague to make this kind of calculations. But just to put an example: Avatar in Spain: €77m which meant $110m (1.43 ER). Today, without applying inflation, €77m=$77m, $33m lower, exactly a 30% drop for Eurozone. The film averaged €8.1 per ticket because of 3D. Today a normal film averages €6.9 per ticket. If Avatar 2's tickets have €1.5 boost because of 3D (€8.4 per ticket), it would need to sell 13.1 million admissions to reach $110m. The first one sold 9.5 million admissions and record is hold by Titanic with 11.2 million. One word: Impossible.

Ok, agreed with that. I just wanted to say that numbers are fine in relation to the market size and the first film figures, but it is clear they are mediocre compared to some excellent numbers from our neighbors, like Portugal or France.

In terms of admissions, France has sold 200k more than the first one until now (3.7m vs 3.5m). Maverick here will finish with about 8.5m euros, what means about 1.3 million admissions, barely 100k admissions less than the first film (1.4m). It is a performance under other countries, but not a so bad one.

Spain OW has been extremely conditioned by Champions League final. The impact is similar Superbowl in USA taking into account that a Spanish team played the match. And first film was not exactly a mega blockbuster. It sold 1.4 million admissions, about 10-11 million dollars adjusted. It is a bit disappointing but nothing tragic. Btw, I saw the film yesterday and I think it is better than the first one. Really entertaining.

Rebecca is wonderful. I read somewhere that someone was making a remake but I do not know if it will be come true. Try again Grapes of Wrath. It is an absolute masterpiece.

It will be hard, but if there is a HLW film able to make in China more than TFA DOM or TBALC China is this one.

IMHO, 1940 is one of the best years ever (if not the best one). I am not sure which film you want to win, but The Grapes of Wrath (my favorite), Rebecca, The Great Dictator, The Philadelphia Story, Fantasia, Pinocchio, The Shop Around the Corner or His Girl Friday are all amazing.

Kinepolis Madrid DS2's presales are a 78% higher than The Batman at the same point (10,167 vs 5,717 tickets sold for the whole weekend). That would give it a €6m OW (TB opened to €3.4m). Adding data that @ScareLol has given, it seems the OW will be really huge. For the record, the whole run of first Doctor Strange was 6,263,539 € and 1,003,302 admissions...

That is the real sad thing

With the $5.6m Wed figure we have this after 13 days: TB: $258.1m CM: $282.3m WW: $227.8m Anyway, I agree with that gap relative to CM after next weekend.

I am shocked with Hurt's death. A really great actor. I love Children of a lesser god. And he was amazing in Mr. Brooks. Really sad news, even more being so young. RIP.

Worse CNY results than last year

Pretty good number, but far from what presales were projecting, at least concerning my data. I will have to revise it for future similar releases. Said this, the opening is on par to TDK. 11-12 million euros could be reachable.

Pretty agree. Although prices were bloated and ERs were incredibly favorable, Avatar set absurd records in many countries. It multiplied by x3 the previous all time record in China. It ranked #1 for 4 years and a half there until TF4 came. Not even Wolf Warrior 2 has been for a so long time on top spot. Somebody has mentioned the WW admissions of both films. How many admissions would have sold Avatar in China with today potential? The growth of expanding markets should be seriously taken into account when you compare WW admissions. Avatar grossed 1.3b Yuan, a 13% of the total market in 2010. A 13% of 2019 Chinese market was about 7.5b-8b Yuan, about $1.1b-$1.2b... I am not saying Avatar would have grossed those 1.1-1.2b in China in same conditions than Endgame, but I think it is relevant for the debate.

No, both CM and Logan dropped over 70% from first Sunday to first Monday CM: Sunday: 38.8 - Monday: 10.99 (-72%) Logan: Sunday: 24.1 - Monday: 7.2 (-70%) The Batman: Sunday: 34.1 - Monday: 11? (-68%)

Same first Monday than Captain Marvel ($10.98m). Good figure taking into account the runtime.

I prefer to wait some months more in order to have the better possible film. To hurry up too much is dangerous for quality.

Let's hope for great legs. Anyway, 800ish for a reboot is in the same league than Homecoming without the biggest franchise ever behind. Solid result. And the best of all: the film is amazing.

Agreed. The target would be about $800m WW.