peludo

This Venom has destroyed the range for SH films not called Avengers in China. The biggest film until now was Ant-man 2, with a bit over 800m Yuan. Venom is making 1b more, at Transformers 4 level, and just behind Furious saga and IW. Nobody could imagine this.

Just for reference, FB1 did during OW: Friday: 74.798m (77.307m including previews) Saturday: 114.145m Sunday: 91.652m

Right now (20:59), they are already tied (both at 76m)

I guess that the reason of that low multiplier is that FB is more fan-driven than Tomb Raider, RPO or Rampage. Presales for a Harry Potter film should always have more weight than those others films. And a 7.8 rating does not help.

I would not compare directly presales of an OW with a 2nd weekend. And I have not said that Venom will win the weekend for sure, but the chance definitely exists.

Data say that it can happen

November 9th-11th Bohemian Rhapsody flat relative to OW. With standard drops from now, it should reach 14-15m. But with a 1% drop after a quite big OW, who knows... A star is born: x5.93 multiplier Cold War: x6.53 (Cold War is being considered the best film of the year by many critics in Spain. It could continue its leggy run thanks to awards season).

DOM: The Lion King, for sure OS/WW: I do not know what to say. One could think that Avengers is favorite, but TLK could be a perfect storm. I think it has a chance to win everything.

If these numbers become true, Venom would enter into top 20 ever, and among biggest Hollywood films, over hits like Zootopia, TF5, Ultron or Warcraft, and just behind the 2 latest Furious films, Infinity War, TF4 and JW2 (very close to this one). Amazing.

Flat or slightly increase in Spain relative to OW. We could start to think in $20m here. Not too far from biggest films of the year.

I did not explain well, although I see you know what I meant I was thinking in the range of every SH film in previous years (not Avengers films), which is 600-800 million Yuan. You can add to the list Iron Man 3, Winter Soldier, Days of Future Past, Guardians 2 and BvS. All of them were in the same range. I meant that Venom has reached that range in 3 days. I knew that there were some films which did a bit better than Venom OW. Ant-Man 2 has barely broken the high end of that range this year, but with this result, that standard range for SH films seems to be definitely broken.

I think the best way to measure the Venom's figures in China is to look at its Yuan figure. It is at 759m Yuan right now after 3 days. That is similar to what every SH film not called Avengers (I include Civil War) has done in TOTAL since 2013

Maybe the problem is to asume that everybody think that. I have not seen Venom. I can not give an opinion about it, but I find Homecoming just meh. Overrated as hell, like some other MCU films.

I could not post data last weekend. I give data of last 2 weekends now: October 26th-28th November 2nd-4th: Great opening for Bohemian Rhapsody. With standard drops it should reach 11-12 million. Venom will fail reaching €10m, similar to both Deadpool films. A star is born has already reached a x5.4 multiplier and it could even reach a x7 (about €5m thanks to a possible awards boost). Incredibles 2 (€21.1m) left the top 25 last week, ranking #41 of all time, with similar numbers to Inside Out (€21.8m), Pets (€21.8m) or DM3 (€20.6m). It ranks #9 among animated films.

I have Aladdin at the same level of popularity than BatB, and just behind TLK. BatB did $759m. Aladdin could try the same... if ERs are the same. 650-700 is my bet right now. Waiting for the next trailer and where I guess we will see Will Smith as the Genie. With that range, I think that billion WW would be likely. I do not see this doing less than Jungle Book DOM. 350-400 sounds reasonable.

New films like Bohemian Rhapsody were released on Wednesday since Thursday was national holiday. If these data are from Friday-Sunday period, it would mean that Bohemian Rhapsody OW is at the same level than SH genre (Venom opened to €3.1m).

FB is not a specially bad case in China. FB did $85m in China (590m Yuan). With today ER it would have done $84m, basically the same. And FB in 2016 already had a bad Pound because Brexit. ERs should not be an excuse for FB2 to not outgross its predecessor. At least in these 2 markets, the biggest OS markets for this film.

Exchange rate is bordering 7 Yuan per Dollar. The biggest film of the year, Operation Red Sea, did $575m in February. Today, it would do "just" $524m. It means about a 10% drop along this year.

Anyway, I understand your doubts. In my case, it is just a feeling (I am not even a fan of the brand). I think Captain Marvel has the potential to make Black Panther numbers, but it is more probable to make "just" 300 or 400, like Wonder Woman.

TDK did $534m

October 19th-21st Boring as hell weekend. Among the 8 films that enters on the list are not able to reach even the #4 spot. Just to say that both "A star is born" and "Cold War" seem to have a good potential since we come from an inflated weekend and still both have had just a 30% drop.

I agree with that. I think it has the potential to make absurd figures domestically.

October 12th-14th Friday was national holiday, so drops have been softer than usual. There are even some increases. Venom is making what some other big SH films do, like Civil War, BvS or Deadpool (around €10-11 million). The only recent films of the genre which are bigger are Avengers films. Very good result. "First Man" starts soft (in the same way than "A star is born"), but I think it will have a good run with good drops. "Cold War" increases a 21% relative to OW. It has had incredible reviews. Some critics say it is the best film of the year. It should have a long run, although I do not dare to give a final prediction. Incredibles 2 ranks already #2 of the year, just behind Jurassic World 2. But it will not reach top spot. Anyway, excellent result. Pixar always rules here. And Campeones is back again to top25 after 28 weeks...

Good luck for Brazilian people along upcoming years. I wish the miracle happens, but let's be realistic...

It is not unusual to see something like that. Beyond Incredibles, this year we have other 5 films in top 10 after 10 weeks: * Perfectos desconocidos (local remake of "Perfetti sconosciuti") ranked #8 after 10 weeks and abandoned the top 10 after 12 weeks being on it. * Peter Rabbit ranked #10 after 10 weeks. * Campeones ranked #3 after 10 weeks and abandoned top 10 in week 15. * Jurassic World 2 ranked #9 after 10 weeks. * El mejor verano de mi vida (local film) ranked #10 after 10 weeks.