peludo

My neighbour Totoro has a 9.4 rating on Maoyan and it can finish with 20m OD. Could it be a mini break-out or the fact that it is a 30 years old film makes it hard? Btw, I adore this movie.

2,000 pages!

I give data of last 2 weekends: November 30th - December 2nd December 7th-9th Good opening for Ralph. Thanks to Christmas boost, it should easily match and outgross the first film (€9.7m and 1.5m admissions). Maybe 11-12 million. Local film Superlópez is holding very well. It should reach 10-11 million. Grinch is maybe headed to 7.5-8 million. FB2 should definitely reach €11m, but still a couple of million behind first part. Robin Hood flops like everywhere. We'll see if it makes €2m. Among holdovers, both A star is born and Cold War are still in top 25 after 10 weeks. Cold War has been nominated as best European film in Goya's awards (our Oscars), so it could still continue making some money. I see quite relevant that a Polish black and white drama gets 200,000 admissions. And finally Bohemian Rhapsody, which has reached 3 million admissions. With the data reported on Sunday ($21.7m) and the ER we have had during last weeks (1.14) I had asumed a €19m cume after last weekend, but it is below that amount. It ranks #64 of all time right now. Anyway, with a €1.2m weekend and the run it is having, I find hard it is not able to make another 2.5 or 3 million more. Heading to, at least, 21-21.5 million euros. That means it would rank between #35 and #40 of all time, on par to The Last Jedi, and over Incredibles 2 and Infinity War, for example. And we'll see if it is able to go beyond this...

Good guess. "definitivo" is the exact word to say definitive

Yes, it is the top 5 of last weekend.

I do not get the disappointment calls. This film was supposed to do 600-800m Yuan until last week. And it has done that amount in 3-4 days. The weekdays seem low after the impressive OW? maybe, and as some people have already said here, we have to wait until next Friday to know if it is a weekend film. But just to remember that, right now, it already ranks #6 among SH films, just behind IW, Venom, Ultron, Civil War and, finally, Ant-Man 2, which is falling tomorrow. Just some patience and enjoy the run, which is already great.

Just to think that possibility exists seems unreal. Who would had thought it after Justice League?

Is there any chance this can get a release in China? I do not know why I had discarded it. Btw, 2018 OS grosses WITHOUT China are: 1. Infinity War: $1.009b 2. Jurassic World 2: $627m 3. Incredibles 2: $581m 4. Black Panther: $541m 5. Bohemian Rhapsody: $423m And then: 6. Deadpool 2: $416m 7. Mission Impossible: $390m 8. Venom: $378m 9. Fantastic Beasts: $370m There are not (for the moment) more films over $500m OS excluding China. FB2 is not reaching it and we will see what happens with Mary Poppins or Aquaman. Anyway, and whatever happens, it is already an absurd result. Just amazing.

Let me think... if it has done $29m OS this weekend and $4.5m comes from Japan, it has done $24.5m OS-Japan. It is not absurd to think in 40-50 million more in those markets from now since holds are out of the world everywhere. You never know with Japan, but another $30m could be reachable with this kind of "drops". And it has done $6m in USA with a 25% drop, Maybe another 15 million? Even 20 with Christmas? 596.5 + 45 (OS-Japan) + 30 (Japan) + 20 (USA) = 691.5m... what about $700m WW? And of course, this would mean $500m OS... without China

Weekend provisional data: 1. Wreck-it Ralph 2: €2.3m (NEW) 2. Superlópez: €1.4m (-22.5%) 3. Bohemian Rahpsody: €1.1m (-16%) 4. Grinch: €1.1m (-40%) 5. Fantastic Beasts: €0.6m (-37%) Long weekend (both Thursday and Saturday have been National holidays), and many people have not worked on Friday. Better drops than usual. But even with that, the best hold among top 5 has been for Bohemian Rhapsody. It is becoming absurd. Yesterday it was reported that the cume is $21.7m, what means €19.1m with current ER. And it could easily do another €2.5-3m, and trying €22m. That means to be the second biggest film of the year, just behind JW2. In terms of market size and comparing to USA, it is equivalent to $375m DOM.

According Maoyan, 1.245b

It is not so astonishing as Japan but, in Spain, it is targeting a x4.5 multiplier relative to a 5-day opening.

Weekend provisional data: 1. The Grinch: €1.8m (NEW) 2. Superlópez: €1.7m (-26%) 3. Bohemian Rhapsody: €1.2m (-27%) 4. Fantastic Beasts: €0.9m (-48%) 5. Widows: €0.6m (NEW)

I do not know if this has been said but The Grinch is the 200th film making $200m in USA. And it makes that "Gone with the wind" leaves the top 200 after 79 years...

It seems confirmed that the usual 600-800 range for every SH film not called Avengers has been definitely broken.

November 23rd-25th: Superlópez is a local film based on a quite popular Spanish comic. It is a direct parody of Superman. It was created in 1973 and it has had quite success along the years. More info about the comic and the character here. With this opening and holidays during next weeks it should try 7-8 million. Fantastic Beasts is not holding as well as the first part did: FB1 (2nd wknd): €2,282,674 - 325,076 adm (-45%). The cume after 2nd weekend was €7,686,366, so FB2 is €800k behind. It should reach €10m, and maybe try €11m, but I am not sure if it will go higher (first part did over €13m). Bohemian Rhapsody has another very good drop, under 30%. I think €18m are close to be locked, and €20m are becoming more and more probable. Incredible run, A star is born continues in top10 after 8 weeks.

I've seen than a Ghibli classic, My neighbour Totoro, is being released on December 14th and presales have already started. Does it have any chance of making some relevant figures?

Spain??? It is at $16.6m after 4th weekend...

Weekend provisional data: 1. Superlópez: €2.2m 2. Fantastic Beasts 2: €1.7m (-58%) 3. Bohemian Rhapsody: €1.6m (-31%) 4. The Nutcracker: €0.3m (-49%) 5. The children act: €0.2m

Maoyan says over 700m right now

November 16th-18th: FB1 OW: €4,159,319 (593,120 admissions). FB2 has had more admissions but a lower gross. The result is basically the same. For reference, FB1 total: €13.332,398 (2,075,146 admissions) Bohemian Rhapsody has a great hold again. As I said in the BR OS thread, €16m is locked and it starts to think in €20m (top 50 all time), next to Infinity War or Incredibles 2, what would be astonishing for a film of this type.

The fact that a sequel opens better than the previous one is quite normal. In the same way, it is quite normal that a sequel drops deeper than the previous one for the same reason (even more if the sequel is not extremely well received, like this case). The perspective is not too good for FB2. I would not rule out what @ZeeSoh is saying. Just take a look at DOM+China result: FB1: 234+86=320 FB2: 175+55=230 That is a probable $90m drop in just 2 markets, unless it shows a drastic change in its run in both markets. IMO, right now, 675-725 WW is a realistic range.

"A Cool Fish" is winning the Wednesday over Venom. I missed this kind of leggy runs. They are so fun to follow.

It seems that "A Cool Fish" will have a leggy run. Right now, Maoyan predicts it will make more than FB2 (444m Yuan vs 439m). That would mean a x6.6 multiplier.

€2.2m weekend in Spain (provisional data). About 21% drop after an already big 2nd weekend and facing FB2 opening. It is already over €12m. 16-17 million (euros) seem locked. But if it keeps having this kind of drops, €20m total could be reachable. For reference, Infinity War has grossed €20.5m and Incredibles 2, €21m. Just JW2 with €24m would be out of reach among the biggest films of 2018. Other way to measure those possible €20m is that it equates to make about 325-350 million dollar in USA.