peludo

At the end of that 127m weekend, 4.693b cume. So it would make another 207m more to reach 4.9b

If TWE reaches 5b Yuan that means around $735m, not just $650m. Anyway, I agree that there are several candidates in USA to match that amount (my main bet is TLK).

February 8th-10th: Great drop for Green Book, which wins the week. 5 or even 6 million could be the target for the moment. Creed does not seem to stabilize. Barely over €5m. Lego Movie fails. As I said on Monday, we will see if it is able to make half of the first part (€5.3m) Glass should finish about €5.5m. Dragon Ball collapses a huge 75%. It won't reach €2m. Bohemian Rhapsody is slowing down. It could finally rank #13, between HP1 (€27.69m) and The Others (€27.25m). And just to mention that after Goya's ceremony, the best picture (Campeones) and the most awarded (El Reino, 7 awards) are back into top 25.

Anyone who have followed the Chinese threads for a while (general and presales) know that the predictions given are probably the most objective of the whole forum, precisely because they are not fan-driven (at least, not apparently). You can be more or less accurate, but I have that feeling when I read all of you giving data (thank you for including me on the list, but I am far to know something about Chinese BO).

Who knows. We will have to wait and see how it holds next days. For the moment, today (Monday and 7th day of release) it seems to make another $50m just in China. And presales for tomorrow seem to be at the same level than yesterday. I would not rule out the chance of reaching the billion yet.

If your projections become true, it would mean, at least, 8 days in a row making over $40m. And maybe 10-11 with the upcoming weekend... Both TFA and WW2 (with today ER) had 7 days in total doing it.

Presales of next day use to increase fast at the end of the day? I ask this because presales for tomorrow are "just" 22.7m right now, which, if I remember well, is well behind the yesterday's number. Maybe tomorrow it will finally drop normally...

Top 5 provisional: 1. Green Book: €0.9m (-21%) 2. Bajo el mismo techo: €0.7m (-38%) 3. Lego movie 2: €0.7m (NEW) 4. Creed 2: €0.5m (-50%) 5. Mary, queen of Scots: €0.4m (NEW) Poor numbers, but good drops, mainly for Green Book which started #2 and now it is on top. Very bad for Lego movie. The first one did €5.3m. Let's see if the sequel is able to make half of that.

More curious data: if +$300m in 6 days become true, TWE would be just the 3rd film making it in a single market. The other 2 are TFA and IW in USA (both did it in 5 days) https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=6&p=.htm

But it is making more money per hour than yesterday. The gap keeps increasing. Right now it is 27m over yesterday (245 Thursday vs 272 today at 16:45).

Maoyan says now something similar to you: 5.334b Yuan ($791m)

February 1st-3rd: Top spot, "Bajo el mismo techo", is a local comedy. Critics do not seem very good, but I guess that a 3.5-4 million is possible. Green Book start is good. It could have a good run if it gets some award. Let's say 4-5 million. Concerning Dragon Ball, I do not remember a better anime opening. It is true that Dragon Ball is very well known here, but I am surprised about the good data. Maybe 2.5-3 million. Creed 2 holds well. Heading to over €5m, quite better than first part (€3.6m). After increasing last week, The favourite has had a normal drop. Unpredictable. I said last week over €4m, but I do not have it so clear now... Bohemian Rhapsody ranks #7 after 14 weeks. To compare, 8 apellidos vascos ranked #8. Just Avatar and I guess that Titanic too, ranked higher at the same point.

Since 2015 with Monster Hunt. I do have not data about evolution of market share between local films and US film in Chinese market, but it seems obvious that China is being able to produce big blockbusters that can compete or even beat HLW films. The top 4 in 2018 were all local films. A beast like Infinity War just could rank #5. By the end of 2014, in the top 10 there were 5 Chinese films and 5 US films, being the top 3 entirely American: TF4, Avatar and Titanic (adding up 1998 and 2012 grosses). When 2015 finished the relation was even 4 for China vs 6 for USA. But by the end of this holiday period, we could only see 1 US film in top 10 (FF8). Unless something drastically changes (maybe a more open market, with a chance to release more foreign films, for example), I do not see how US can recover the predominant position. In fact, I think the gap could even go bigger. Right now, and IMHO, just rarities like Avatar sequels have the potential to reach top positions.

232m at 4p.m. Maybe 350m today?

Add Interstellar to that list

1. Crazy Alien: 283m Yuan ($42.0m) 2. The Wandering Earth: 261m ($38,7m) 3. Pegasus: 188m ($27.9m) 4. The New King of Comedy: 107m ($15.9m) 5. Boonie Bears: 83m ($12.3m) 6. The Knight of Shadows: 28.9m ($4.3m) 7. Peppa Pig: 22.8m ($3.4m) 8. Integrity: 18.3m ($2.7m)

Maoyan already predicts 5.099b for TWE. Could beating WW2 (5.682b) be in play?

That makes me think that Disney could have changed the schedule to release Avengers at Christmas instead Star Wars...

For that reason @a2k has given us a list of SH films without China. The $850m that Aquaman is making without China is the 4th biggest ever for a solo SH film, and the 2nd biggest for an origin film, just behind Black Panther. TDK and TDKR were bigger draws. Even more if we consider that both did not have 3D. I do not doubt about it. But the success of Aquaman, IMHO, is the fact that it is an unknown character, like Black Panther was last year. The mere fact that we can compare directly the gross of Aquaman with a Spider-man or Batman is shocking. Who would have said it 2 months ago? And the fact that Japan can make $30m or just $15m will not change that. And that taking into account that we came from Justice League, an absolute failure, both critically and economically.

I do not remember a so short gap between #1 and #4 in a weekend.

Fixed The difference between both is what each did in USA and in China. If we exclude those 2 countries, and next to Titanic and Avatar, both films are the only ones which did $1b OS without China (1.010b IW and 1.007b SW7).

Right now... OD Crazy Alien: 83.9m Pegasus: 76.6m The New King of Comedy: 74.3m The Wandering Earth: 37.4m The Knight of Shadows: 20.0m Integrity: 19.0m Peppa Pig: 16.6m Boonie Bears: 14.1m I do not know how do these figures compare to other years.

January 25th-27th Creed 2 opens about a 20% higher than the first part, which did €3.65m and sold 560k admissions. With similar legs, it should go over €4m. Glass drop is decent. It should try to repeat "Multiple" numbers (€5.5m) As I said last week, The favourite is unpredictable. It has probably increased because of Oscar nominations. Last week I said a x5 multiplier, what would mean €3m. That is already low. I think €4m are reachable with ease. Probably more. We'll see. Aquaman is reaching €14m. Great run for a SH film. Spider-man 2 would be the next SH in the list (€14.8m), but I do not see reaching those heights. Mary Poppins will not reach €10m. Probably €9.5m. Bohemian Rhapsody still ranks #17, but on Sunday it will already be #16 (A monster calls, €26.2m), and maybe #15 (The sixth sense, €26.6m). Taking into account its kind of run, I can not see it missing €28m, what would imply to rank #12 of all time, and trying top 10 (#11 POTC2, €28.3m; #12 Shrek 2, €28.2m). When it had done it, we will talk about outgrossing LOTR (#7, #8 and #9).

So, relative to top 5 provisional, Instant family outgrosses Aquaman as #5.

These are the data I have collected: 1. Infinity War: 2.389b Yuan ($355m) 2. Aquaman: 2.006b ($298m) 3. Venom: 1.870b ($278m) 4. Jurassic World 2: 1.695b ($252m) 5. Ready Player One: 1.396b ($207m) 6. Mission Impossible 6: 1.244b ($185m) 7. The Meg: 1.052b ($157m) 8. Rampage: 1.004b ($150m) 9. Ant-Man and the Wasp: 831m ($124m) 10. Secret superstar (India): 747m ($111m) If we only talk about US films, the 10th would be: 10. Skyscraper: 669m ($99m) * Dollar figures are calculated with today ER (6.71)